Incumbent Mary Peltola (D), Eric Hafner (D), Nicholas Begich (R), and John Howe (Alaskan Independence Party) are running in the general election for U.S. House of Representatives in Alaska on Nov. 5, 2024. Peltola and Begich lead in polling, fundraising, and local media attention.
Peltola defeated Begich and Sarah Palin (R) in a special election in 2022 with 51.5% of the vote in the final round of ranked-choice voting. Under ranked-choice voting, voters rank the candidates on the ballot in order of preference rather than voting for one candidate. If no one candidate has more than 50% of the first-choice vote, the lowest-ranked candidate is eliminated and votes are tallied again with the eliminated candidates’ votes redistributed to their voters’ next choice. The process repeats until one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote.
The 2024 election will also be held using a ranked-choice ballot. Voters will also vote on a ballot measure that would repeal the state’s use of ranked-choice voting and top-four primaries. If the measure passes, future elections will be conducted using the same system of partisan primaries and plurality voting in general elections that had been in use in Alaska until 2020.
In the special election, Peltola won 40.2% of the first-place vote to Palin’s 31.3% and Begich’s 28.5%, leading to Begich’s elimination. In the second round of counting, Peltola defeated Palin 51.5% to 48.5%. In the regularly-scheduled election later that year, the first-choice vote was 48.7% for Peltola, 25.8% for Palin, 23.6% for Begich, and 1.9% for Chris Bye (L). Bye was eliminated in the second round, leaving the totals at 49.2% for Peltola, 26.3% for Palin, and 24.5% for Begich. After Begich’s elimination, Peltola defeated Palin 55.0% to 45.0% in the third round.
Peltola is the first Democrat elected to represent Alaska in the U.S. House since 1972.
As of Sept. 9, 2024, Peltola had raised $7,541,674 and Begich had raised $1,000,590. As of the same date, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the race Lean Democratic, Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales rated it Tilt Democratic, and Decision Desk HQ and The Hill rated it a Toss-up.
Peltola and Begich were the top two finishers in the top-four primary on Aug. 20, 2024. Howe and Hafner were the fifth- and sixth-place finishers and advanced to the general election after Nancy Dahlstrom (R) and Matthew Salisbury (R) dropped out. Dahlstrom, the lieutenant governor, received 19.9% of the primary vote and had an endorsement from former President Donald Trump (R). In a statement announcing her withdrawal, Dahlstrom said she “entered this race because Alaskans deserve better representation than what we have received from Mary Peltola in Washington…At this time, the best thing I can do to see that goal realized is to withdraw my name from the general election ballot and end my campaign.”
On Sept. 12, 2024, the Alaska Supreme Court ruled against the Democratic Party of Alaska in a suit it filed seeking Hafner’s removal from the ballot. The party said that Hafner, who is serving a 20-year prison sentence and has never resided in Alaska, is ineligible to take office. In the ruling, the court found that Hafner met the requirements to file as a candidate even if he had not met the requirements to take office, concluding that there was “no basis under Alaska law or otherwise to challenge a candidate preemptively under constitutional grounds.”
Peltola is a former state legislator, development manager, and fisherwoman. Peltola says she has “worked with our bipartisan delegation to bring home projects that will strengthen the permanent fund, preserve our fisheries, lower our energy costs, and create high-paying union jobs for regular Alaskans…Alaska only works when we work together and ignore Lower 48 partisanship.”
Begich is the founder of a software development firm and a technology-focused investment group. Begich says he is running because “Washington is broken: lost opportunities for Alaskans, a focus on so many of the wrong priorities, big government lobbyists and insiders who are selling our nation to the highest bidder, and a President who often can’t find his own way off a stage.”
All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election in 2024. Republicans have a 220 to 211 majority with four vacancies. As of June 2024, 45 members of the U.S. House had announced they were not running for re-election.
In the 2022 election in this district, the Democratic candidate won 55.0%-45.0%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Donald Trump (R) would have defeated Joe Biden (D) 53.1%-43.0%.
Alaska’s At-large Congressional District is one of 37 congressional districts with a Democratic incumbent or an open seat that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is targeting in 2024.