“But even setting aside that there are more competitive candidates in Iowa this year than ever before, there are two other things that make the 2020 Democratic race in Iowa especially close. First, Sanders, whose Iowa polling average is just a hair ahead of Biden’s, isn’t polling that high for a front-runner. At 22.6 percent, he has the second-lowest polling average for a leading candidate one week before the caucuses. (Paul sat at 21.5 percent in 2012.) Second, there are three contenders polling above 15 percent, which is tied for the most candidates in any presidential election cycle.
But a fourth candidate, Warren, is just short of the 15 percent mark, so this year’s caucuses could produce a historic result: Since the start of the modern primary era there’s never been a major-party contest in Iowa where more than three candidates won at least 15 percent of the vote statewide. Moreover, since 1992, when the Democratic Party implemented some of the rules that continue to define its nomination races, there has not been a single Democratic primary or caucus in any state or territory in which more than three candidates have won at least 15 percent of the vote statewide. Although Warren has fallen slightly below the 15 percent mark, she also just got an endorsement from the Des Moines Register, which might help her reverse her polling slide in the state. So if Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg and Warren all go on to finish above 15 percent, it would be a first.”
– Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight
Michael Bennet plans to submit at least two questions in the impeachment trial on Wednesday about foreign policy and precedents related to personal benefit and political gain.
Rep. Alma Adams (N.C.), a member of the Congressional Black Caucus, endorsedJoe Biden on Tuesday. Biden aides discussed the possibility of a caucus deal with an aide to Amy Klobuchar, whereby voters in certain precincts would be encouraged to support one candidate over the other to avoid both failing to meet the viability threshold. No deal was made, The New York Times reported.
Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.) launched a TV and digital ad campaign in Iowa criticizing impeachment and Biden.
Michael Bloomberg issued his LGBT policy platform on Tuesday, which included passing the Equality Act and appointing a Special Envoy on LGBT issues at the State Department.
Pete Buttigieg is hosting town halls across Iowa on Wednesday, including in Jefferson, Ames, Webster City, Mason City, and New Hampton.
John Delaney will begin his final campaign in Iowa on Thursday with stops in Muscatine and Cedar Rapids.
Bernie Sanders made a $2.5 million television ad buy in California and Texas, the two largest Super Tuesday states.
Democratic Majority for Israel launched an anti-Sanders ad campaign in Iowa on Wednesday.
Tom Steyer is holding several town halls across Iowa on Wednesday, including stops in Knoxville, Ottumwa, and Fairfield.
Elizabeth Warren issued her infectious disease policy on Tuesday. She called for increasing funding for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Public Health Emergency Preparedness cooperative agreement, among other agencies and programs.