Author

Emily Aubert

Emily Aubert is a staff writer at Ballotpedia and can be reached at emily.aubert@ballotpedia.org

Eric Holder and Deval Patrick consider 2020 presidential bids

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 12, 2019: Eric Holder and Deval Patrick are reportedly considering late 2020 presidential runs. Michigan released its initial candidate list, which included Michael Bloomberg. blankblank   


How many counties backed Donald Trump in 2016 after backing Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012?

Notable Quote of the Day

“Indeed, given Trump’s fairly low approval ratings and the high level of partisan polarization, Trump’s vote share likely has both a clear floor and ceiling. The 2020 Democratic nominee will probably enter the general election limited by a similarly narrow bound. Given this floor, Sanders and Warren are electable, even if they might be marginally less electable than Biden.

‘It might make sense to talk about things in terms of a threshold, that someone is ‘electable “enough,”’ said Hans Noel, a Georgetown University professor and expert on party politics.”

– Perry Bacon Jr.

Democrats

  • Michigan released its initial list of candidates for the presidential primary ballot. Among the 18 Democrats listed were Michael Bloomberg, who has not formally declared his candidacy, and Wayne Messam and Joe Sestak, neither of whom have participated in any presidential primary debates.

  • The Michael Bennet campaign announced on Monday that it planned to expand its presence in New Hampshire, opening three new offices and hiring additional staffers.

  • Joe Biden participated in a televised town hall on CNN on Monday. He also released his plan for veterans services, which included updating compensation, increasing the amount of time between permanent change of station moves, and developing programs for military spouses.

  • Cory Booker campaigned in Iowa on Saturday and Sunday, touring local small businesses.

  • Steve Bullock campaigned in New Hampshire on Monday and will file for the state primary on Tuesday.

  • Pete Buttigieg discussed racial inequity in policing in an interview on NPR’s “Off Script” series. He also attended a fundraiser in Rhode Island on Sunday and released his veterans services plan, which includes increasing coordination between the VA and the Department of Defense to streamline medical care and improving care for aging veterans.

  • While campaigning in Iowa, Julián Castro called for the primary calendar to be restructured so that states representative of the country’s demographic diversity vote earlier than Iowa and New Hampshire.

  • In an interview with The Wall Street JournalJohn Delaney discussed globalization, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and U.S.-China trade relations.

  • Tulsi Gabbard campaigned in Los Angeles on Sunday and Monday. Her campaign also released a letter on Monday calling for Hillary Clinton to retract statements she made about Gabbard in an October interview.

  • Kamala Harris campaigned in South Carolina on Monday, holding an event with veterans.

  • Amy Klobuchar spoke at a veteran’s day event in Minnesota on Monday.

  • Bernie Sanders issued his veterans policy plan on Monday, which included investing $62 billion to repair and modernize hospitals and clinics.

  • Sestak visited with detained veterans at the SCI Phoenix maximum security prison in Pennsylvania on Monday.

  • Tom Steyer participated in a televised town hall on CNN in Iowa, where he discussed climate change, Michael Bloomberg’s possible candidacy, and expanding the Affordable Care Act.

  • Elizabeth Warren campaigned in South Carolina on Saturday and New Hampshire on Monday.

  • Marianne Williamson began a campaign visit to Nevada on Saturday, attending town halls in Las Vegas.

  • The New York Times profiled Andrew Yang’s campaign from its beginnings in late 2017.

Republicans

On the Cusp: Tracking Potential Candidates

  • Former Attorney General Eric Holder reportedly spoke with strategists about a potential 2020 presidential bid.

  • Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is considering entering the Democratic primary, according to a The New York Times report.

Flashback: November 15, 2015

According to an analysis of SMG Delta advertising numbers, Jeb Bush and his supporters were more than doubling the television ad spending of his nearest competitor, Marco Rubio.

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Bloomberg signals 2020 presidential bid, prepares to file for Alabama primary

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is reportedly preparing to run for president. Bloomberg has not yet announced that he is running for president, although Axios reported that he is looking to meet upcoming filing deadlines in Arkansas, New Hampshire, Florida, California, and Texas.
 
Bloomberg previously said in March 2019 that he would not enter the presidential race. He wrote in an op-ed, “I know what it takes to run a winning campaign, and every day when I read the news, I grow more frustrated by the incompetence in the Oval Office. I know we can do better as a country. And I believe I would defeat Donald Trump in a general election. But I am clear-eyed about the difficulty of winning the Democratic nomination in such a crowded field.”
 
With an estimated net worth of $52 billion, Bloomberg would self-fund his campaign if he entered the presidential race, joining 17 other candidates in the Democratic primary.
 
Iowa caucusgoers cast the first vote of the presidential election in 87 days on Feb. 3, 2020.


Bloomberg signals 2020 presidential bid, files for Alabama primary

 Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 8, 2019: Michael Bloomberg is expected to file for the Alabama Democratic presidential primary before the filing deadline on Friday. Andrew Yang is airing his first television ad in Iowa as part of a $1 million ad buy. 

     

     Each Friday, we highlight a presidential candidate’s key campaign staffer.

Daily Presidential News Briefing, Staffer Spotlight - Emmy Ruiz

Emmy Ruiz is a Democratic campaign staffer with experience in California, Nevada, and Texas. Ruiz is a partner at consulting firm NEWCO Strategies. She graduated from the University of Texas at San Antonio with a degree in English language and literature in 2006.

Previous campaign work:

  • 2016 Hillary Clinton (D) presidential campaign, Colorado and Nevada state director
  • 2012 Barack Obama (D) presidential campaign, Nevada general election director
  • 2008 Hillary Clinton (D) presidential campaign, canvass director and regional field director

Other experience:

  • 2019: NEWCO Strategies, partner
  • 2013-2014: Annie’s List, political director
  • 2013: Organizing for Action, comprehensive immigration reform campaign manager
  • 2012-2013: Obama Inaugural Committee Office of Public Engagement, deputy director
  • 2011-2012: Organizing for America, Nevada field director
  • 2009-2011: Democratic National Committee, Texas field director
  • 2011: U.S. Agency for International Development, Yes Youth Can field consultant
  • 2008-2010: Young Democrats of America, national field manager
  • 2006-2007: American Red Cross, development coordinator/grant writer

Notable Quotes of the Day

“As a former business magnate and mayor of New York City, Bloomberg has the two qualities essential to enter the presidential race at this late stage: money and name recognition. For that reason, I think Bloomberg can immediately become a heavyweight in the Democratic primaries. Beyond the attention he’d garner with his announcement, there’s plenty of space for Bloomberg to position himself as a moderate voice, especially with Joe Biden’s candidacy stuck in neutral.”

– Thomas Gift, University College London

“It’s tough in Iowa. It’s tough with 90 days away. If he does this, this is not going to be an Iowa-centered campaign. If he does this, this is going to be a very unorthodox campaign.”

– Matt Paul, 2016 Clinton Iowa state director

Democrats

  • Michael Bennet is touring flood-damaged communities and attending a climate change discussion in Iowa on Saturday. Bennet also joined the Climate Solutions Caucus this week.
  • Joe Biden will campaign in New Hampshire Friday and Saturday, including filing for the state primary. 
  • Cory Booker will campaign in South Carolina on Friday and Saturday.
  • In an interview on Slate’s Gist podcast, Steve Bullock discussed climate change and energy.
  • Pete Buttigieg is launching a four-day bus tour of New Hampshire on Friday. He also issued a series of plans on childcare, affordable housing, and college costs. Among Buttigieg’s proposals are investing $1 trillion in childcare and affordable housing and eliminating public college tuition for families earning less than $100,000.
  • Julián Castro spoke at the Annie’s List dinner in San Antonio on Thursday night.
  • John Delaney criticized Medicare for All in an interview on Fox News’ America’s Newsroom.
  • In an interview on Breitbart News DailyTulsi Gabbard discussed China, Syria, the Democratic Party, and the Trump administration.
  • Kamala Harris will attend a town hall in Las Vegas on Friday and tour the Veterans Village in Nevada on Saturday.
  • Amy Klobuchar is speaking at Iowa Central Community College on Friday.
  • Wayne Messam gave a speech at the Miramar Comcast Center on Thursday.
  • Bernie Sanders will campaign across Iowa Friday through Monday, including a rally with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.) in Council Bluffs on Friday.
  • The Sanders campaign is expected to spend $30 million on advertising in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and California, The New York Times reported.
  • Sanders also released his immigration plan on Thursday, which includes reinstating DACA and eliminating Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement and redistributing their duties to other agencies.
  • Joe Sestak will speak at Winthrop University in South Carolina on Friday.
  • Tom Steyer aide Pat Murphy allegedly offered local Iowa political figures compensation in exchange for an endorsement of Steyer, according to an Associated Press report. Press secretary Alberto Lammers said no officials in Iowa had received contributions and the campaign did not authorize Murphy’s actions. 
  • Elizabeth Warren will participate in a town hall focused on Latino issues in Raleigh, North Carolina.
  • Marianne Williamson posted a video requesting donors contribute $1 million more to her campaign to fund television ads.
  • Andrew Yang is airing his first ad in Iowa, “New Way Forward,” as part of a $1 million ad buy in the state.

Republicans

On the Cusp: Tracking Potential Candidates

  • Michael Bloomberg reportedly will file for the Alabama Democratic presidential primary before the filing deadline on Friday. He has not yet made a final decision on whether to run for president.

What We’re Reading

Flashback: November 8, 2015
 Joan Kato replaced Jim Farrell as Bernie Sanders’ Nevada state director.



Ballotpedia’s Weekly Presidential News Briefing: November 2-8, 2019

 Ballotpedia's Weekly Presidential News Briefing

Every weekday, Ballotpedia tracks the events that matter in the 2020 presidential election. 

This email brings you the highlights from our daily briefings in a weekly format so you can stay up-to-date on the 2020 election with one, easy-to-read summary.

Here’s the latest from the campaign trail.

Candidates by the Number

 

There are 14 new candidates running since last week, including one Republican and two Libertarians. In total, 930 individuals are currently filed with the FEC to run for president.

Notable Quotes of the Week

“Tuesday’s results continued to demonstrate GOP problems in the suburbs since Trump took office. The latest was in northern Kentucky in the Cincinnati suburbs, where Bevin won in 2015 and Beshear won in 2019. Or in northern Mississippi, in the Memphis suburbs where the GOP margin in DeSoto County dropped from 61 points to 20 points, according to Ryan Matsumoto, a contributing analyst to Inside Elections. These are just the latest pieces of evidence after Democrat Dan McCready’s overperformance in the Charlotte suburbs from 2018 to the 2019 special election in North Carolina’s 9th District. It should be particularly concerning for President Trump in his efforts to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas in 2020.”

– Nathan GonzalesRoll Call

“Yes, Trump went to Kentucky on Monday night to stump for Bevin. And, yes, he told the crowd at a Lexington rally that losing the governor’s race would send ‘a really bad message.’

But every other major GOP candidate seeking statewide office in the Bluegrass State won their race. The governor’s mansion in Mississippi is going to stay red (after Trump also stumped in that state recently). And Virginia isn’t a purple state so the Democrats’ sweep there isn’t as foreshadowing as it might be in other states.”

– Ledyard KingUSA Today

Week in Review

Bloomberg signals 2020 presidential bid, files for Alabama primary

Michael Bloomberg reportedly will file for the Alabama Democratic presidential primary before the filing deadline on Friday.

Although Bloomberg has not announced a formal decision about running for president, Axios reported that he is looking to meet other upcoming filing deadlines in Arkansas, New Hampshire, Florida, California, and Texas.

With an estimated net worth of $52 billion, Bloomberg will self-fund his campaign.

November debate reaches 10 candidates, December reaches six

Tulsi Gabbard qualified this week for the fifth Democratic presidential, becoming the 10th candidate to make the stage. The debate will be held on Nov. 20 at Tyler Perry Studios in Atlanta.

Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar both reached the polling threshold to qualify for the December debate. In addition to meeting fundraising thresholds, candidates need to receive 4 percent support or more in four national or early state polls or 6 percent support or more in two single state polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and/or Nevada.

In total, six candidates have qualified for the December debate in Los Angeles. GabbardTom Steyer, and Andrew Yang are on the cusp: each has at least one qualifying poll.

Trump rallies for Republican gubernatorial candidates

Donald Trump held three rallies across the South this week to support gubernatorial candidates in MississippiKentucky, and Louisiana.

Republican Tate Reeves won the race in Mississippi, while the Kentucky race remains too close to call with Democrat Andy Beshear leading Republican Matt Bevin by roughly 5,000 votes. Beshear has declared victory in the race. Bevin is considering asking for a recount and has yet to concede.

The Louisiana gubernatorial runoff election takes place on Nov. 16.  Incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) faces Eddie Rispone (R). If Edwards wins, the state will remain as divided government. A Rispone victory would give Republicans a trifecta.

Two Steyer aides face allegations of improper conduct

A South Carolina aide to Tom Steyer resigned this week after allegedly downloading the Kamala Harris campaign’s volunteer data file. 

Another aide, Pat Murphy, allegedly offered local Iowa political figures compensation in exchange for an endorsement of Steyer, according to an Associated Press report. Press secretary Alberto Lammers said no officials in Iowa had received contributions and the campaign did not authorize Murphy’s actions. 

Five candidates hit Iowa and New Hampshire airwaves with new ads

  • Steve Bullock is airing his first two television ads in Iowa. One highlights his statewide victory in a red state and the other features state Attorney General Tom Miller.
  • Pete Buttigieg released his sixth television ad in Iowa, which focuses on his speech at the Liberty and Justice Dinner in Iowa. 
  • Julián Castro is airing a new ad in Iowa comparing his policies to Trump’s as part of a $50,000 ad buy.
  • Bernie Sanders is airing “Fight for Us,” his first television ad in New Hampshire. The ad will run for two weeks and is part of a $1 million ad buy.
  • Andrew Yang is also spending $1 million on his first ad in Iowa, “New Way Forward.”

Want more? Find the daily details here:

Poll Spotlight

Staff Spotlight

Emmy Ruiz is a Democratic campaign staffer with experience in California, Nevada, and Texas. Ruiz is a partner at consulting firm NEWCO Strategies. She graduated from the University of Texas at San Antonio with a degree in English language and literature in 2006.

Previous campaign work:

  • 2016 Hillary Clinton (D) presidential campaign, Colorado and Nevada state director
  • 2012 Barack Obama (D) presidential campaign, Nevada general election director
  • 2008 Hillary Clinton (D) presidential campaign, canvass director and regional field director

Other experience:

  • 2019: NEWCO Strategies, partner
  • 2013-2014: Annie’s List, political director
  • 2013: Organizing for Action, comprehensive immigration reform campaign manager
  • 2012-2013: Obama Inaugural Committee Office of Public Engagement, deputy director
  • 2011-2012: Organizing for America, Nevada field director
  • 2009-2011: Democratic National Committee, Texas field director
  • 2011: U.S. Agency for International Development, Yes Youth Can field consultant
  • 2008-2010: Young Democrats of America, national field manager
  • 2006-2007: American Red Cross, development coordinator/grant writer

What We’re Reading

Flashback: November 4-8, 2015

  • November 4, 2015: Ben Carson topped the RealClearPolitics polling average for the first time. Donald Trump previously held the first position for 107 days.
  • November 5, 2015: Bernie Sanders signed a joint fundraising agreement with the Democratic National Committee.
  • November 6, 2015: Reps. Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo endorsed Marco Rubio.
  • November 7, 2015: Donald Trump hosted Saturday Night Live on NBC.
  • November 8, 2015:  Joan Kato replaced Jim Farrell as Bernie Sanders’ Nevada state director.

Trivia

How many noteworthy candidates were running for president at this point in the 2016 election?

  1. Eight→
  2. Fourteen→
  3. Twenty→
  4. Twenty-six→


More election coverage!

The Daily Brew
Welcome to the November 7, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. More election results from out west and there’s still time to register for today’s briefing on 2019’s ballot measures
  2. Groups submit signatures for two 2020 marijuana initiatives in South Dakota
  3. Local Elections Roundup

More election results from out west and there’s still time to register for today’s briefing on 2019’s ballot measures

In case you missed it, yesterday’s Brew detailed 10 observations from Tuesday. After some sleep and more caffeine, I wanted to update you on the results of certain late-reporting elections:

Seattle City Council

None of Seattle’s seven city council races have been called since Washington holds elections by-mail.  Officials will continue counting ballots that are postmarked on or before Nov. 5. and will certify election results Nov. 26. Three incumbents are running for election among the seven district seats.

These races saw satellite spending of more than $4 million, which was more than 5 times the amount spent in 2015, the last time the same seven council seats were up for election. Amazon contributed $1.5 million to the local chamber of commerce’s PAC, which endorsed candidates in each race, including challengers to two incumbents. PACs affiliated with labor groups endorsed and spent in support of candidates opposing those backed by the chamber in most races. 

Based on unofficial results as of Wednesday at 5:00 p.m. CT, four candidates supported by the Chamber of Commerce are leading in their districts and three candidates supported by another PAC—the Civic Alliance for a Progressive Economy (CAPE)—are ahead in their races. Democratic presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have both tweeted support for candidates endorsed by CAPE and opposition to the Chamber of Commerce’s efforts. 

San Francisco District Attorney 

The results of San Francisco’s district attorney election are too close to call. Under the city’s system of ranked-choice voting, voters may select multiple candidates, ranking their preferences from among their options. If no candidate receives a majority of the first-choice vote, the last-place candidate is eliminated and their voters’ votes are allocated to their next preferred candidate. This process is repeated until one candidate has a majority. 

With partial results reported from just under 100% of precincts, Chesa Boudin led with 33.0% of the first-choice vote, followed by Suzy Loftus with 30.9%, Nancy Tung with 20.8%, and Leif Dautch with 15.4%. This is the first open-seat election for San Francisco District Attorney since 1909. The race attracted national attention, with presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris making endorsements. Sanders endorsed Boudin and Harris—who held the office herself before being elected California attorney general—endorsed Loftus.

Colorado Proposition CC

Colorado voters rejected Proposition CC—54.7% to 45.3%—which would have allowed the state to keep revenue above the state spending cap to provide funding for transportation and education. Under the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR), passed in 1992, the state is required to refund revenue above the spending cap to taxpayers. The Colorado State Legislature placed Proposition CC on the ballot along party lines. Legislative Democrats voted for the bill referring the measure to voters, while legislative Republicans voted against the bill. 

And just a reminder that we’re hosting another briefing later today on 2019’s ballot questions. We covered 32 statewide ballot measures in seven states, as well as 141 local measures that appeared on the ballot in North Carolina and California, as well as those within the 100 largest cities in the U.S. by population. Our ballot measures expert—Josh Altic—will break down the results of all the key statewide and local measures and discuss trends that are emerging nationwide. The briefing is at 1:30 p.m. Central Time, and you can click the button below to reserve your spot. As always, if you can’t watch it live, we’ll send you a link to the recording when it’s available so you can catch up on your schedule.

Register now blank    blankblank   



Groups submit signatures for two 2020 marijuana initiatives in South Dakota 

And speaking of ballot measures, let’s look ahead a bit to 2020. Proponents of two 2020 marijuana initiatives in South Dakota submitted a combined 80,000 signatures to the Secretary of State on Nov. 4. One initiative would amend the state’s constitution while the other is an initiated state statute. 

The proposed constitutional amendment would legalize and regulate recreational marijuana and require the state legislature to pass laws providing for the use of medical marijuana and the sale of hemp by April 1, 2022. The measure was sponsored by former U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson and is supported by the committee, South Dakotans for Better Marijuana Laws. Proponents reported submitting 50,000 signatures. To qualify for the ballot, 33,921 valid signatures are required. 

South Dakotans for Better Marijuana Laws is also supporting an initiated state statute that would amend state laws to provide for a medical marijuana program. Proponents reported submitting 30,000 signatures for this measure. To qualify for the ballot, 16,961 valid signatures are required.

As of 2019, 11 states and the District of Columbia had legalized the possession and personal use of marijuana for recreational purposes. Nine jurisdictions had made such changes through statewide citizen initiatives, and two through bills approved by state legislatures and signed by governors. 

Recreational marijuana

Of the 33 states —and Washington, D.C.—that had approved the legalization of medical marijuana, 17 states achieved legalization via statewide ballot measure and 15 states passed laws in their state legislatures. Additionally, 13 states had legalized the use of cannabis oil, or cannabidiol (CBD)—one of the non-psychoactive ingredients found in marijuana—for medical purposes.

Local Elections Roundup

ICYMI, I discussed on our recap briefing yesterday the 2,983 races we covered Tuesday. Here are the results of some other local races:

Houston

Incumbent Sylvester Turner and former Texas A&M Board of Regents member Tony Buzbee advanced from Tuesday’s mayoral election to a Dec. 14 runoff since none of the 12 candidates received a majority of the vote. Turner received 47 percent of the vote to Buzbee’s 28 percent. Houston is the fourth-largest city in the United States and has a population of 2.2 million.

Houston Independent School District

Four of nine seats on the Houston Independent School District (HISD) school board were up for election and both of the incumbents running for re-election were defeated Tuesday. The two incumbents had been endorsed by a group that includes the Houston Federation of Teachers. The two open-seat races advanced to a Dec. 14 runoff since no candidate received more than 50% of the vote; one of the two races will feature a candidate backed by the same group. 

Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath informed the school district on Wednesday that the state would appoint both a new superintendent and a board of managers to oversee the district. In a letter, Morath said the action was taken due to what he described as a “failure of governance” by the school board and poor academic performance ratings at a high school in the district. The board of managers would assume the responsibilities of the school board and elected board members would not have any power until reinstated by the state. The HISD recently filed a lawsuit to prevent the state from taking control of the district. 

Philadelphia

The Working Families Party (WFP) won one of seven at-large seats on the Philadelphia City Council for the first time in city history, according to unofficial election returns. WFP candidate Kendra Brooks was in sixth place—trailing five Democratic candidates—and incumbent David Oh (R) was in seventh.  

City rules state that a political party may nominate only five candidates for the seven at-large seats, meaning that no one party can win every city council seat. Since Philadelphia’s charter was adopted in 1951, every council election has resulted in Democrats winning five at-large seats and Republicans winning two.

Boise

Boise will hold its first-ever mayoral runoff election December 3 after no candidate won a majority of votes in Tuesday’s general election. City council president Lauren McLean finished first—receiving 46% of the vote—and incumbent David Bieter—who is seeking his fifth term—was second with 30% in a seven-candidate field. McLean is seeking to become the city’s first female mayor.

Albuquerque

Voters in Albuquerque, New Mexico, approved 15 ballot measures and rejected one Tuesday. The measures approved included 10 bond measures for the city of Albuquerque, one bond measure for Albuquerque Public Schools, and one bond measure for Central New Mexico Community College. City voters also renewed a 0.25 percent gross receipts tax dedicated to road infrastructure, transit, and trails, a measure that made changes to the city’s public financing program for candidates, and approved the continuation of a property tax for school facilities and education technology improvements. Voters defeated a measure that would have created a program called Democracy Dollars, which would have provided residents with $25 vouchers that could be donated to participating candidates.


 



Gabbard is tenth candidate to qualify for November debate

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 7, 2019: Tulsi Gabbard is the tenth candidate to qualify for the fifth Democratic presidential debate. Rep. Ayanna Pressley endorsed Elizabeth Warren on Wednesday.


 Presidential poll highlights, 2019-2020 - Nevada Independent (October 28 - November 2, 2019)
Presidential poll highlights, 2019-2020 - Emerson College (October 31 - November 2, 2019)

Notable Quote of the Day

“Currently, about two in three Republicans (66%) and Democrats (65%) report being more excited about voting than they were in previous elections. This differs from the typical pattern Gallup has seen over the years, whereby those who identify with the political party of the incumbent president have been less enthusiastic about voting than members of the opposing party. This is true whether that president is running for election or leaving office. … 

History would suggest that Democrats would be more keyed up to vote than Republicans, but that isn’t the case in this early marker taken nearly a year before Election Day 2020. Though a lot can change in a year, the current politically polarized environment — with added tensions from a congressional impeachment inquiry — could be resulting in voters of all political stripes’ sense that a lot is at stake in their upcoming vote.

– Justin McCarthy, Gallup

Democrats

Republicans

  • Mike Pence is traveling to New Hampshire on Thursday to file in the New Hampshire primary for the Donald Trump campaign.

  • Bill Weld discussed impeachment, climate change, and canceled Republican presidential primaries in a text-based interview with BuzzFeed News.

Flashback: November 7, 2015

Donald Trump hosted Saturday Night Live on NBC.

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Buttigieg and Castro air new ads in Iowa

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 6, 2019: Pete Buttigieg and Julián Castro are airing new ads in Iowa. Donald Trump is holding a campaign rally in Monroe, Louisiana. blank    blankblank   


 Presidential Facebook ads, 2019-2020 (October 27 - November 2, 2019)

Notable Quotes of the Day

“Tuesday’s results continued to demonstrate GOP problems in the suburbs since Trump took office. The latest was in northern Kentucky in the Cincinnati suburbs, where Bevin won in 2015 and Beshear won in 2019. Or in northern Mississippi, in the Memphis suburbs where the GOP margin in DeSoto County dropped from 61 points to 20 points, according to Ryan Matsumoto, a contributing analyst to Inside Elections. These are just the latest pieces of evidence after Democrat Dan McCready’s overperformance in the Charlotte suburbs from 2018 to the 2019 special election in North Carolina’s 9th District. It should be particularly concerning for President Trump in his efforts to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas in 2020.”

– Nathan GonzalesRoll Call

“Yes, Trump went to Kentucky on Monday night to stump for Bevin. And, yes, he told the crowd at a Lexington rally that losing the governor’s race would send ‘a really bad message.’

But every other major GOP candidate seeking statewide office in the Bluegrass State won their race. The governor’s mansion in Mississippi is going to stay red (after Trump also stumped in that state recently). And Virginia isn’t a purple state so the Democrats’ sweep there isn’t as foreshadowing as it might be in other states.”

– Ledyard KingUSA Today

Democrats

  • Michael Bennet is filing for the New Hampshire primary on Wednesday and holding campaign events in the state.

  • In a Medium post on Tuesday, Joe Biden wrote about healthcare and responded to Elizabeth Warren’s criticism that he was running in the “wrong presidential primary.” He said that the comments are “representative of an elitism that working and middle class people do not share.”

  • Cory Booker wrote in an op-ed in Essence that the Democratic nominee must be able to build a diverse coalition.

  • Steve Bullock spoke about winning in red states during an interview on MSNBC’s Meet the Press Daily.

  • Pete Buttigieg released his sixth television ad in Iowa, which highlights his speech at the Liberty and Justice Dinner in Iowa. 

  • Julián Castro is airing a new ad in Iowa comparing his policies to Trump’s as part of a $50,000 ad buy.

  • Kamala Harris will campaign in New Hampshire on Wednesday and Thursday.

  • After filing for the New Hampshire primary on Wednesday, Amy Klobuchar will hold a rally at the New Hampshire State House and attend several town halls.

  • The Bernie Sanders campaign said the media was ignoring Sanders’ poll performance, which the campaign described as a surge in its daily newsletter.

  • Joe Sestak spoke on Newsmax about Mexican cartels, the border, and the impeachment inquiry.

  • Tom Steyer is attending a town hall in Milwaukee on Wednesday.

  • Warren released a veterans policy plan on Tuesday. She said she would propose pay raises at or above the Employment Cost Index, increase employment for military spouses, and expand DOD childcare centers, among other policies.

  • Marianne Williamson is speaking at Scripps College and Pomonal College in California Wednesday.

  • Andrew Yang is returning to New Hampshire Wednesday for a three-day tour beginning in Portsmouth.

Republicans

  • Donald Trump will hold a rally in Monroe, Louisiana, on Wednesday night. The state is holding a gubernatorial runoff election on Nov. 16.

Flashback: November 6, 2015

Reps. Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo endorsed Marco Rubio.



Happy Election Day!

The Daily Brew

One of my favorite days of the year – Election day! Voters go to the polls across the country today, and we’ll be here all day, keeping the servers churning and ready to update our results the moment polls close. We’re following along with a quick primer below—whether you are voting yourself, or just curious about the rest of the nation’s elections activity. 

Here’s a list of resources to guide you today

Haven’t voted yet? Click here and preview your ballot with our sample ballot tool.

Not sure when voting ends where you are or when results will start coming in? Click here to see a chart of poll closing times for those states holding statewide elections.

Who is going to win? Bookmark this page to follow election results later tonight. You can also see which battleground races we’ll be watching closely.

Want to receive late-breaking updates? Click here to find us on Twitter.

Preview your ballot
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Register for our Nov. 6 briefing to discuss all of Tuesday’s notable election results 

Join me on Wednesday for a briefing to discuss the results of Tuesday’s key elections, such as the governor’s races in Kentucky and Mississippi, state legislative elections in Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia, and municipal elections in Seattle and Houston. We’ll discuss who won, the status of any races that are too close to call, and how the results may affect politics and policymaking—including redistricting.

The briefing is at 1:30 p.m. Central Time, so click the link below to register and secure your spot. And if you can’t watch it live, we’ll send you a link to the recording when it’s available so you can catch up on your schedule.  

 

 



Castro fires staff in New Hampshire and South Carolina

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 5, 2019: Julián Castro is firing staff in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Donald Trump held a rally Monday night in Lexington, Kentucky. blank    blankblank   


 

How many noteworthy candidates were running for president at this point in the 2016 election?

Notable Quote of the Day

“A confluence of factors — ranging from the historic size of the primary field to the strategic considerations of top-tier candidates — has turned Iowa into the essential early state in 2020. Since July, candidates have made more than 800 appearances in the state, far surpassing totals in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, according to candidate trackers maintained by the Des Moines Register and news outlets in the other three states.

Iowa is where Pete Buttigieg, still a single-digit candidate nationally, is surging, where Elizabeth Warren has overtaken Joe Biden and where the former vice president — still leading nationally — is at risk of getting cut down. And it is serving as the fulcrum for a host of other candidates — among them Sens. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris — who hope to leverage their performance across the state’s 99 counties into relevance in the states that follow.”

– David Siders, Politico

 

Democrats

Republicans

  • Mark Sanford spoke with the Southern New Hampshire Libertarian Party on Monday.

  • Donald Trump held a rally Monday night in Lexington, Kentucky, where he called on voters to support incumbent Republican Gov. Matt Bevin.

Flashback: November 5, 2015

Bernie Sanders signed a joint fundraising agreement with the Democratic National Committee.

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O’Rourke drops out of 2020 race, 17 Democrats remain

 Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 4, 2019: Beto O’Rourke announced that he was dropping out of the presidential race. Elizabeth Warren proposed a 6 percent tax on wealth over $1 billion to fund Medicare for All.


There are 14 new candidates running since last week, including one Republican and two Libertarians. In total, 930 individuals are currently filed with the FEC to run for president.

Notable Quote of the Day

“The vaunted event that catapulted Obama to stardom [the Liberty and Justice Celebration] was reduced to just another candidate cattle call, long on rhetoric but short on results.

Lu Ann Pedrick, a Des Moines-based party activist … said the candidate field is just too large. That means no single candidate really has the time to spin a narrative. She thinks even Obama would be lagging somewhere towards the back of the pack in an environment like this.”

– Daniel Newhauser, Vice

Democrats

Republicans

  • Donald Trump held a rally in Tupelo, Mississippi, to campaign for Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves in his run for governor of Mississippi. Trump discussed the impeachment inquiry, the Democratic primary, and the media. An estimated 10,000 people attended the event.
  • In a CNN interview Sunday, Joe Walsh said Fox News and conservative talk radio were lying to and manipulating listeners on the impeachment inquiry.
  • Bill Weld spoke at the No Labels Problem Solver Convention on Sunday in Manchester, New Hampshire.

General Election Updates

Special Guest Analysis

Jim Ellis is a 35-year political veteran who now analyzes election data for major corporations, associations, and legislative advocacy firms. He is president of EllisInsight, LLC. We invited him to share analysis on the presidential election.

It’s common practice on an election-eve for political prognosticators to predict what may unfold next election cycle based on today’s voting patterns. The disparate elections to be decided this Nov. 5, however, leave us little salient prediction material.

Turnout is expected to exceed normal voting trends in states with major elections at the top of the ballot, a pattern that is already being projected for the 2020 cycle. All indicators suggest that we will see record participation in next year’s presidential contest, with some estimates exceeding 150 million votes. In 2016, a record 136,792,535 people cast their ballots.

Three governors will be elected in November: one each in Kentucky and Mississippi on Nov. 5, and another following the Louisiana runoff on Nov. 16.  State legislative elections are on tap in Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia. Louisiana runoffs for state House and Senate races will also be held on Nov. 16.

The statewide races, in particular, have unique characteristics that don’t lend themselves to making predictions about the upcoming presidential race. In Kentucky, Gov. Matt Bevin (R) was a surprise winner in 2015 and has been unpopular almost since his inauguration. Although Kentucky is one of the strongest Republican states at the federal level, Democrats can still win election to state office.

Attorney General Andy Beshear is the Democratic nominee. He is the son of former Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear (D), who defeated an unpopular Republican state chief executive back in 2007.

Mississippi Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) faces four-term Attorney General Jim Hood (D) in the election to succeed term-limited incumbent Gov. Phil Bryant (R). While polls show a tight race, Hood is staying away from running as a national Democrat. Even if Hood were to upset Reeves, little could be extrapolated for future races.  

In Louisiana, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) was forced into a runoff with Baton Rouge developer Eddie Rispone (R). Though the GOP ad producers are trying, it has been difficult to pin the liberal label on Edwards since he signed the state’s new heartbeat abortion law. Additionally, should Rispone unseat the Democratic governor, the result would align with normal electoral trends, given the state’s Republican voting history.

The Democrats are poised to win control of the Virginia legislature, but even that won’t be transformational. The state has been moving left for several years and the Democrats won a court redistricting decision that makes the legislative maps more favorable. Any change in party control would actually be closer to the new normal vote in the state rather than establishing a trendsetting benchmark.

Though we will see some interesting results on Nov. 5, the vote totals won’t be a harbinger for next year. We should analyze each of the winning campaigns individually instead of proclaiming a trend prediction.

What We’re Reading

Flashback: November 4, 2015

Ben Carson topped the RealClearPolitics polling average for the first time. Donald Trump previously held the first position for 107 days.



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