Notable Quote of the Day

“The real margin of error is often about double the one reported. The notion that a typical margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points leads people to think that polls are more precise than they really are. Why is that? For starters, the margin of error addresses only one source of potential error: the fact that random samples are likely to differ a little from the population just by chance. But there are three other, equally important sources of error in polling: nonresponse, coverage error (where not all the target population has a chance of being sampled) and mismeasurement. Not only does the margin of error fail to account for those other sources of potential error, it implies to the public that they do not exist, which is not true.

Several recent studies show that the average error in a poll estimate may be closer to 6 percentage points, not the 3 points implied by a typical margin of error. While polls remain useful in showing whether the public tends to favor or oppose key policies, this hidden error underscores the fact that polls are not precise enough to call the winner in a close election.”

– Courtney Kennedy, Pew Research Center

Election Updates

• In a video released Thursday, Joe Biden was interviewed by a panel of journalists at the National Association of Black Journalists and National Association of Hispanic Journalists 2020 virtual convention. He said he supported free coronavirus testing and vaccination for immigrants residing the U.S. without legal permission.

• Politico reported that Jill Biden, Kamala Harris, John Kasich, Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren will be featured at the Democratic National Convention.

• Donald Trump spoke to a crowd of 100 supporters in Cleveland at the Burke Lakefront Airport on Thursday. He also visited the Whirlpool Corporation Manufacturing Plant, where he made the following six promises: defeat the coronavirus, create job prosperity and economic resiliency, turn America into the top medical manufacturer, onshore millions of manufacturing jobs, bring back American jobs, and put American workers first.

• The Commission on Presidential Debates rejected the Trump campaign’s request to add a fourth debate or alter the schedule. “While more people will likely vote by mail in 2020, the debate schedule has been and will be highly publicized. Any voter who wishes to watch one or more debates before voting will be well aware of that opportunity,” the commission’s co-chairs said.

• Jo Jorgensen will make campaign stops in Mississippi and New Orleans over the weekend as part of her #BrakeTheBus tour.

• Kanye West discussed his campaign in an interview with Forbes on Thursday. When asked if his campaign was a spoiler since he would not be on enough ballots to win 270 electoral votes, West responded, “I’m not going to argue with you. Jesus is King.” On potentially hurting Biden’s chances in the race, West said, “I’m not denying it; I just told you.”

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What We’re Reading

• Fast Company: The Democratic convention can be anything this year. We asked designers for their wildest concepts

• WBUR: The Uncertain Science Of Election Polling

• U.S. News & World Report: Where’s Joe Biden?

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Flashback: August 7, 2016

John Kasich said the Trump campaign had contacted his aides about his interest in running for vice president.