One-sixth of U.S. House retirees in 2020 won re-election in 2018 by less than six points


Of the 36 U.S. House incumbents that did not run for re-election in 2020, six (16.7%) won re-election in 2018 by less than six points. That’s a higher percentage than in both 2018 (10.3%) and 2016 (7.3%).

Exactly one-third of 2020 retirees won re-election in 2018 by more than 36 points. That’s a higher percentage than 2018 (27.5%) but lower than 2016 (41.4%). The 2020 retiree with the largest margin of victory in 2018 was Jose Serrano, who won re-election to represent New York’s 15th Congressional District by 92 percentage points.

One 2020 retiree, Joseph Kennedy III (D-Mass.), was unopposed in his last re-election campaign. That matches the number of 2016 retirees who were previously unopposed. The 2018 election cycle had two retirees who were previously unopposed.

The 36 members of the U.S. House in this analysis do not include members of the 116th Congress who left office early. Of those 36 members, nine are Democrats, 26 are Republicans, and one is a Libertarian.