An early look at the 2022 Senate elections

On November 8, 2022, 34 Senate seats will be up for election. These elections—along with any vacancies, special elections, or appointments that may occur in the meantime—will determine whether the Senate maintains a 50-50 partisan split with effective Democratic control, Democrats strengthen their majority, or Republicans take control of the chamber.

Of the 34 Senate seats up for election in 2022, Republicans currently hold 20 and Democrats hold 14. 

Democrats are not defending any Senate seats in states Donald Trump won in the 2020 presidential election. Republicans are defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden won: Pennsylvania (held by Sen. Pat Toomey) and Wisconsin (held by Sen. Ron Johnson).

• In Pennsylvania, Biden defeated Trump (R) 50.0%-48.8%.

• In Wisconsin, Biden defeated Trump 49.5%-48.8%.

*Early race ratings*

Outlets including The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Have released early race ratings. The outlets agreed in their ratings of 15 races as Safe/Solid Republican and 10 as Safe/Solid Democratic. The nine elections with more competitive ratings from two or more outlets are:

Toss-up or Democratic advantage

• Arizona

• Georgia

• New Hampshire

• Nevada

(Toss-up or Republican advantage)

• Florida

• North Carolina

• Ohio

• Pennsylvania

• Wisconsin

Four of the seats up for election in 2022 changed party hands the last time they were up for election. In 2020-2021, Democrats picked up Senate seats in special elections in Georgia and Arizona. In 2016, Democrats picked up Senate seats in Illinois and New Hampshire.

The last time these Senate seats were up for election, seven were won by a margin of fewer than 5 percentage points.

• In Wisconsin, Ron Johnson (R) won by 3.4 percentage points in 2016.

• In Missouri, Roy Blunt (R) won by 2.8 percentage points in 2016.

• In Arizona, Mark Kelly (D) defeated incumbent Martha McSally (R) by 2.4 percentage points in the 2020 special election.

• In Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto (D) won by 2.4 percentage points in 2016.

• In Georgia, Raphael Warnock (D) defeated incumbent Kelly Loeffler (R) by 2.1 percentage points in the special runoff election last month.

• In Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey (R) won by 1.5 percentage points in 2016.

• In New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan (D) defeated incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) by 0.1 percentage point in 2016.

Three incumbents have announced they are not seeking re-election: North Carolina’s Richard Burr (R), Pennsylvania’s Pat Toomey (R), and Ohio’s Rob Portman (R). 

Click below to follow along with the latest on 2022’s Senate elections.,_2022

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