Welcome to the Thursday, July 7, Brew.
By: David Luchs
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- California, Oregon certify four measures for this year’s statewide ballot
- Five candidates seek Republican nomination for United States Senate in Arizona
- Sign-up today: Ballotpedia Expedition on judicial deference begins July 11
California, Oregon certify four measures for this year’s statewide ballot
As of July 5, 113 statewide measures have been certified for the ballot in 35 states. That’s 19 less than the average number certified at this point in other even-numbered years from 2010 to 2020.
From 2010 to 2020, the average number of statewide ballot measures certified in an even-numbered year was 164. By this time during even-numbered years from 2010 through 2020, an average of 132 statewide measures had been certified for the ballot.
Four new measures were certified for the ballot last week, including three in California and one in Oregon.
California Proposition 1, State Constitutional Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment
This measure would amend California’s constitution to prohibit the state from interfering with or denying an individual’s right to reproductive freedom, which it defines as including both access to abortion and to contraceptives.
The state Senate voted 29-8 in favor of placing the amendment on the ballot, with all votes in favor from Democrats and all votes opposed from Republicans. The state Assembly voted 58-17 to put the measure on the ballot. All but one vote in favor was cast by a Democrat, and all votes against were cast by Republicans.
This measure would legalize online and mobile sports betting for those 21 and older, establish regulations for the industry, and impose a 10% tax on sports betting revenue and licensing fees. The tax would go towards homelessness programs and financial support for tribes choosing not to operate sports betting.
The measure qualified for the ballot after organizers submitted 1.1 million valid signatures in favor to the Secretary of State’s office. One million signatures were required to put the measure on the ballot.
Thirty-five states and the District of Columbia have either legalized sports betting or approved laws that would legalize the practice. Five of those states legalized sports betting via ballot measure.
This measure would increase the tax on personal income above $2 million by 1.75% and allocate the additional revenue towards subsidies and infrastructure funding for zero-emissions vehicles as well as wildfire suppression and prevention programs.
The measure qualified for the ballot after organizers submitted 720,000 valid signatures in favor to the Secretary of State’s office. 620,000 valid signatures were needed to put the measure on the ballot. The signature threshold was lower for Proposition 30 than for Proposition 27 because Proposition 30 would not amend the state constitution.
Oregon Exclusion from Re-election for Legislative Absenteeism Initiative
This measure would disqualify any state legislators who missed more than 10 legislative floor sessions without permission or excuse from qualifying for re-election.
The measure qualified for the ballot after organizers submitted 155,000 valid signatures in favor to the Secretary of State’s office. 149,000 valid signatures were needed to put the measure on the ballot.
Ballotpedia has tracked five state legislative walkouts in Oregon since 2000 where legislators left the state for at least a week or received significant national media attention. A state legislative walkout occurs when a number of legislators do not attend a legislative session in order to impact the passage of legislation by preventing the chamber from meeting its attendance quorum. Four of the walkouts involved Republican legislators leaving while the legislature had a Democratic majority, and one involved Democratic legislators leaving while the legislature had a Republican majority.
Signatures have been submitted and are pending verification for seven initiatives in six states:
- Colorado Decriminalization, Regulated Distribution, and Therapy Program for Certain Hallucinogenic Plants and Fungi Initiative
- Idaho Income Tax Increases for Education Funding Initiative
- Michigan Payday Loan Interest Rate Cap Initiative
- Missouri Marijuana Legalization Initiative
- Missouri Top-Four Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative
- Nevada Top-Five Ranked Choice Voting Initiative
- Oklahoma State Question 820, Marijuana Legalization Initiative
Five candidates seek Republican nomination for United States Senate in Arizona
Five candidates are running in the Republican primary for United States Senate in Arizona on August 2, 2022. Incumbent Mark Kelly (D) is running for re-election.
Mark Brnovich, Jim Lamon, and Blake Masters have led in polling, fundraising, and media attention.
Brnovich, a career prosecutor, has served as Arizona’s attorney general since 2015. Before that, Brnovich served as an assistant attorney general from 1998 to 2003 and as the director of Arizona’s Department of Gaming from 2009 to 2013. Brnovich’s campaign refers to the legal challenges his office has brought against President Joe Biden’s (D) tax and immigration policies, among others. TV show host Sean Hannity and radio host Mark Levin endorsed Brnovich.
Lamon is a businessman who founded DEPCOM Power, a solar energy company he sold in 2021. Lamon has largely self-funded his senate effort. According to Open Secrets, Lamon had contributed $13M to his campaign as of July 3, 2022, or 94% of all funds donated. Lamon has cited U.S.-China trade relations as a top issue, saying, “Communist China is the biggest threat to our economic security and national sovereignty.” The Conservative Political Action Coalition, the National Border Patrol Council, and a number of state legislators endorsed Lamon.
Masters is a tech entrepreneur who co-authored “Zero to One: Notes on a Startup”, a business book based on a class tech investor Peter Thiel taught at Stanford. Masters joined Thiel Capital in 2014 and was named president of the Thiel Foundation in 2015. Masters has expressed support for tightening regulations on technology companies and privatizing social security. Thiel, former President Donald Trump (R), and TV show host Tucker Carlson endorsed Masters.
Three election forecasters rate the race a toss-up, meaning the general election is expected to be competitive. The previous two Senate elections—held in 2018 and 2020—were both decided by 2.4 percentage points. In 2020, Kelly defeated incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R) in a special election, 51.2% to 48.8%. In 2018, Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeated McSally, 50.0% to 47.6%.
Michael McGuire and Justin Olson are also running in the primary.
Sign-up today: Ballotpedia Expedition on judicial deference begins July 11
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