Angie Craig (D), Tyler Kistner (R), and Paula Overby (Legal Marijuana Now Party) are running in the general election in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District on Nov. 8.
Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections wrote in Roll Call in April 2022 that “The suburban Twin Cities seat didn’t change much in redistricting; just 8 percent of the 2nd District is new to both candidates. And Biden would have won it by 7 points, putting it within reach for Republicans in the current political environment.”
Craig was first elected in 2018, defeating then-incumbent Jason Lewis (R), 53% to 47%. She was re-elected in 2020 against Kistner, 48% to 46%.
Before serving in the U.S. House, Craig worked as a journalist and in corporate communications and executive roles in the medical device industry. She stated why she was running on her campaign website as follows: “I worked hard to get where I am, but I was pretty lucky, too. For too many Americans, hard work doesn’t pay off like it used to. College is unaffordable and technical training is unavailable. Healthcare costs too much. Incomes aren’t keeping up with the costs of groceries and prescription drugs. We can do better.”
Kistner served as an officer in the U.S. Marine Corps and was a consultant at the time of the 2022 election. He stated his campaign’s mission on his website: “I’m running for Congress to ‘serve’ – not to serve big business, not to serve the political elites – but to serve Minnesotans who are increasingly concerned about our country’s future. I will be a check and balance to the Biden Administration and work to make a greater prosperity for our children and future generations.”
This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.
As of September 2022, three election race newsletters rated the contest as a Toss-up. Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics told MPR News in June 2022, “Look, this is a race that Craig only won by a couple of points in 2020. And we have a pretty good feeling that the political environment for Democrats is going to be worse, perhaps significantly worse, than it was in 2020.”
The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress. All 435 districts in the House are up for election. As of September 13, 2022, Democrats hold a 221-212 advantage in the U.S. House with two vacancies. Republicans need to gain a net of six districts to win a majority in the chamber.
Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 52.5% of the vote in this district and Donald Trump (R) would have received 45.4%. Biden carried the previous version of the district in the 2020 presidential election, 52.4% to 45.5%. Trump carried the district in 2016 with 47% of the vote to Hillary Clinton’s (D) 45%.