Category2022 elections

Davis defeated Collins in Illinois’ 7th Congressional District on June 28, 2022

Incumbent Danny K. Davis, Kina Collins, and Denarvis Mendenhall ran in the Democratic primary for Illinois’ 7th Congressional District on June 28, 2022. Davis, who has represented the district in Congress since 1997, won the primary with 52.3% of the vote. Collins received 45.3% of the vote, and Mendenhall received 2.4%.

Davis focused his campaign on familiarity with the district’s voters, saying, “This is my community…This is my home. This is my life.” Davis’ campaign yard signs read, “Re-elect Danny Davis. He’s someone you know,” and his campaign website highlighted his congressional voting record and seniority on congressional committees and caucuses. Collins’ campaign did not draw a contrast with Davis on policy but said Collins would provide the district with a fresh voice in Washington. Collins emphasized the fact that Davis has represented the district since she was in kindergarten and said that it was time for a change. She said, “I’m not just running to be the congresswoman in the Illinois 7th, but to talk about a vision for the Democratic Party, which includes young people, people of color, women, and those who do not come from traditional political backgrounds.” Collins’ campaign raised more money than Davis’, according to reports from the Federal Election Commission. Analysts described this primary race as a bellwether for generational tensions within the Democratic Party.

Prior to serving in Congress, Davis served on the Chicago City Council for 11 years as alderman of the 29th Ward. He also served on the Cook County Board of Commissioners from 1990 to 1996. He was elected to the U.S. House to represent Illinois’ 7th Congressional District in 1996. Davis served on the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee and was a member of the Congressional Black Caucus and the Progressive Caucus. Davis’ re-election was endorsed by President Joe Biden (D), Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker (D), Illinois Senators Tammy Duckworth (D) and Dick Durbin (D), and Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot.

Collins became a protest organizer in the wake of the Chicago police shooting of Laquan McDonald in 2014 and founded the Chicago Neighborhood Alliance, a group describing its goal as to help end gun violence through civic engagement, in 2017. Collins lost to Davis in Illinois’ 7th Congressional District’s 2020 Democratic primary. She also served on the transition team and task force for gun violence prevention under President Joe Biden (D). Collins’ campaign was endorsed by several aldermen in the 7th District and the national political organizations Indivisible, Justice Democrats, and National Organization for Women.

Before the primary, the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rated Illinois’ 7th Congressional District as a solid/safe Democratic seat, meaning that as the winner of the Democratic primary, Davis is very likely to win the general election as well.



Former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon withdraws from Arizona governor’s race

Former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon withdrew from the Republican primary for governor of Arizona on June 28, 2022, saying that “primary voters deserve more than having their votes split.” Salmon endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson the following day.

Club for Growth and FreedomWorks had endorsed Salmon, along with U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), and U.S. Reps. Andy Biggs (R- Ariz.), David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). Salmon’s withdrawal came after the deadline for his name to be removed from the ballot.

In addition to Taylor Robson, Kari Lake, Scott Neely, and Paola Tulliani-Zen are on the ballot for the August 2 primary. Incumbent Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is term-limited.

Lake and Taylor Robson lead in endorsements, polls, and funding.

Lake, who formerly worked as a news anchor for Fox 10 News in Phoenix, Arizona, said she is “running … on a platform of common sense conservatism dedicated to individual liberties, low taxes, limited regulation, and protecting Arizona’s great Western heritage.” Lake said, ” The ongoing border crisis is nothing less than a national security and humanitarian disaster. … I will not wait for Washington’s approval or rely on the empty promises of far-away politicians to do what’s best for Arizonans.” She said, “After I take my hand off the Bible, we are going to issue a declaration of invasion. We are going to finish President Trump’s wall, and we are going to send our armed National Guard to the border and stop people from coming across.”

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Lake, along with U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), the Conservative Political Action Coalition, and the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police.

Taylor Robson, a former member of the Arizona Board of Regents and founder of a land-use strategy firm, said, “We need a leader with a record of accomplishment, not a career talker with the teleprompter.” She said, “I built my own businesses. I do more than talk for a living.” Taylor Robson said that border security would be her first priority and that she would “surge National Guard troops to the border, equip the Border Strike Force with the latest technology, and finish the wall.” She also said, “I am uniquely qualified to lead this state into the future and to secure and protect Arizona’s water. My experience includes decades managing land, water and other natural resource issues, as well as working with government at all levels.”

Former Arizona Govs. Jan Brewer (R) and John Fife Symington III (R) endorsed Taylor Robson, as did former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), Arizona state Senate President Karen Fann (R), and Americans For Prosperity.

With regard to the 2020 presidential election, Lake said that President Joe Biden (D) “lost the election and he shouldn’t be in the White House.” In a campaign ad, Lake said, “If you’re watching this ad right now, it means you’re in the middle of watching a fake news program. You know how to know it’s fake? Because they won’t even cover the biggest story out there, the rigged election of 2020.” In an interview with Fox News, Lake said, “… [W]e had a fraudulent election, a corrupt election, and we have an illegitimate president sitting in the White House.”

Taylor Robson said, “Joe Biden may be the president, but the election wasn’t fair. States across the country changed their voting rules in the weeks and months before the election; the mainstream media generally refused to cover stories harmful to Joe Biden; and Big Tech actively suppressed conservative voices. No wonder a sizable percentage of Arizona Republicans still feel the way they do about 2020.” She said, “I am focused on 2022 because the left is 10 steps ahead of us. … I will do everything I can to ensure Arizona is in Republican hands for the 2024 election when we can take back the White House.”

Patrick Finerd, Carlos Roldan, and Alex Schatz are running as write-ins in the primary.

Major independent observers rate the general election as a toss-up. Ducey was first elected in 2014 and won re-election in 2018 by a margin of 14 percentage points. Repulicans have held trifecta control of Arizona state government since 2009.



Michigan sees 4.08 candidates per district, a decade-high

The filing deadline for candidates running for Congress in Michigan this year was April 19, 2022. Fifty-three candidates are running for Michigan’s 13 U.S. House districts, including 28 Democrats and 25 Republicans. That’s 4.08 candidates per district, a decade-high, and up from the 3.93 in 2020 and 3.64 in 2018. 

Here are some other highlights from this year’s filings:

  • This is the first election to take place under new district lines following the 2020 census, which resulted in Michigan losing one U.S. House district.
  • The 53 candidates running this year are two fewer than in 2020, when 55 candidates ran, and two more than in 2018, when 51 candidates ran.
  • Two districts — the 10th and the 13th — are open. That’s up from one in 2020, and is the same number as 2018.
  • Rep. Lisa McCLain (R), who represents the 10th district, is running in the 9th district this year, and Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D), who represents the 13th district, is running in the 12th.
  • Rep. Andy Levin (D), who represents the 9th district, is running in the 11th district against incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens (D), making the 11th district the only district where two incumbents are running against each other this year.
  • There are four contested Democratic primaries this year, down from seven in 2020 and nine in 2018. 
  • There are nine contested Republican primaries, a decade-high. That’s up from eight in 2020 and one in 2018.
  • There are six incumbents in contested primaries this year, up from four in 2020, and one in 2018. That’s also one fewer than the decade-high of seven in 2012.
  • Five incumbents — three Democrats and two Republicans — are not facing any primary challengers this year.
  • One district — the 4th — is guaranteed to Republicans because no Democrats filed to run in the primary. No districts are guaranteed to Democrats because no Republicans filed. 

Michigan and four other states — Arizona, Kansas, Missouri, and Washington — are holding primary elections on August 2, 2022. In Michigan, the winner of a primary election is the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes cast for that office, even if he or she does not win an outright majority of all votes cast.

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Ranked-choice voting campaign submits signatures for Nevada ballot

On June 29, the Nevada Voters First campaign submitted signatures to qualify for the Nevada ballot this November. This came on the day after the Nevada Supreme Court ruled that the initiative may proceed to the ballot.

The Nevada Supreme Court ruled in favor of Nevada Voters First. The challenge to the ballot initiative, filed by Nathan Helton, argued that the measure violated the single-subject rule. The Supreme Court backed a lower court ruling from January. Justice Douglas Herndon wrote in the opinion that “although [the measure] proposes two changes (open primary elections and ranked-choice general elections for specified officeholders), both changes are functionally related and germane to each other and the single subject of the framework by which specified officeholders are presented to voters and elected.”

The campaign reported submitting 266,000 signatures, which exceeded the 135,561 valid signature requirement. The submitted signatures will have to be verified in order for the measure to qualify for the Nevada ballot.

The ballot initiative would establish a top-five ranked choice voting system, which would establish open top-five primaries and ranked-choice voting for general elections. Rank-choice voting allows a voter to rank candidates in preference from first to last. A candidate receiving first-choice votes of more than 50% wins. If no candidate is the first choice of more than 50%, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. And each voter who had ranked the now-eliminated candidate as their first choice, has their single vote transferred to their next highest choice candidate. This tabulation process would repeat until the one candidate with more than 50% support is determined as the winner.

In May, signatures were submitted for a top-four ranked-choice voting initiative in Missouri. Ranked-choice voting is also used for certain elections in Alaska and Maine.

The Institute for Political Innovation, founded by Katherine Gehl, said, “With more than 35 percent of Nevada voters unable to vote in a primary because they are registered as independent or non-partisan, and many more feeling under-represented by their respective party, it is clear that this antiquated system needs to change.”

Protect Your Vote Nevada, a committee opposed to the measure, said, “Their petition would make our elections unnecessarily confusing, complicated, and riddled with errors.”

If the initiative makes the ballot, it will join two other measures currently on the Nevada ballot for November – the Equal Rights Amendment, which would add language to the Nevada Constitution prohibiting the denial of rights based on race, color, creed, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, age, disability, ancestry or national origin; and the Minimum Wage Amendment, which would increase the minimum wage in Nevada to $12 per hour.

If voters approve an initiated amendment in one election, it must win again at the next general election in an even-numbered year for it to become part of the constitution. In other words, if the initiative is approved in 2022, it must be approved again in 2024.

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Incumbent Michael Guest defeated Michael Cassidy in Mississippi’s 3rd District Republican Party primary runoff

Incumbent Michael Guest (R) defeated Michael Cassidy (R) in the Republican Party primary runoff in Mississippi’s 3rd Congressional District on June 28, 2022. Guest, who has represented this district in Congress since 2019, won with 67.4% of the vote while Cassidy received 32.6%. In the first round of the primary on June 7, Cassidy received 47.5% of the vote to Guest’s 46.9%.

Guest is a member of the U.S. House Homeland Security, Transportation, and Ethics Committees. He served as the district attorney for Rankin and Madison counties in Mississippi before his election to Congress. The Guest campaign highlighted his political experience and what they described as his conservative voting record in Congress. After the June 7 primary, Guest said, “I’ll be working to earn your vote because we need PROVEN, conservative leadership with a real record of fighting for our values—that’s the difference in the runoff election!”

Cassidy is a military veteran who said that he was running for Congress to continue serving his country. After the June 7, 2022, primary, Cassidy said “This is the first step in replacing our current congressman with someone who better represents [our] conservative Mississippi values.” According to Cassidy, “We need more people in Congress that will truly fight for the American people, and Michael Guest is quite simply not equipped for that challenge. He may be a decent man but he has proven to be ineffective at his job, and we need people who know how to fight in Congress.”

Guest voted along with 34 other House Republicans to create a bipartisan commission to investigate the events of January 6, 2021. Cassidy mentioned this vote when he challenged Guest to a debate after the June 7 primary: “I am calling on Mr. Guest to give the voters the opportunity to see us debate and so he can be held accountable for voting for the Democrats’ January 6th Commission.” Guest’s campaign responded saying, “Congressman Guest did not vote for Nancy Pelosi’s Select Committee on January 6th that’s currently in the news…He voted against the Select Committee because he knew it would lead to the witch hunt we are seeing now…[Cassidy] has spent a personal fortune to mislead the people of Mississippi about Congressman Guest’s conservative, Christian character.”

Before the primaries, the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rated Mississippi’s 3rd Congressional District as a solid/safe Republican seat. 



Mullin and Shannon advance to Aug. 23 special runoff for U.S. Senate in Oklahoma

Markwayne Mullin and T.W. Shannon advanced to an August 23, 2022, Republican primary runoff in the special U.S. Senate election in Oklahoma. Neither received the majority of the primary vote needed to win outright on June 28.

Ten candidates ran in the primary. The special election will fill the rest of the six-year term left by Sen. Jim Inhofe (R), who was last elected in 2020. Inhofe announced he would resign January 3, 2023, to spend time with family.

Mullin, Shannon, Nathan Dahm, Scott Pruitt, and Luke Holland led in polling, noteworthy endorsements, and media attention.

Mullin has represented Oklahoma’s 2nd Congressional District since 2013. He campaigned on making the country energy independent, lowering inflation, and defending the Second Amendment. Mullin said, “I entered the race for Senate because the people of Oklahoma deserve a Senator who will fight for their conservative values. I am a Christian, a family man and a proud supporter of President Trump and I will always fight for the America First policies that Oklahomans have been desperately missing during Joe Biden’s failed time in office.”

Shannon is the CEO of Chickasaw Community Bank in Oklahoma City. He previously served as a member of the Oklahoma House of Representatives from 2006 to 2014. Shannon campaigned on opposing taxpayer-funded abortion, protecting the U.S. Constitution, and lowering taxes to create jobs. Shannon said he was running to “push back against this woke agenda” because “what made this country great is our constitution, capitalism and Christianity, and all three of those are under attack.” Former Vice Presidential and current U.S. House candidate Sarah Palin (R) endorsed Shannon.

Dahm is a member of the Oklahoma State Senate, a position to which he was first elected in 2011. Dahm campaigned on election integrity, protecting the Second Amendment, and term limits for members of U.S. Congress. Dahm said, “I’m running for the United States Senate because, like you, I am tired of the spineless politicians who turned their backs on President Donald J. Trump. We need proven Republican fighters, and I’ve proven I’ll never back down.” U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R) endorsed Dahm.

Holland was Inhofe’s chief of staff until he resigned in February 2022 to run for U.S. Senate. He began working with Inhofe in 2009 as a staff assistant. Holland campaigned on standing up to China and stopping what he described as a rush to socialism. Holland said, “As your next senator, I will continue the Inhofe legacy of defending our Christian values, fighting socialism, rebuilding our military and standing up to China.” Inhofe endorsed Holland.

Pruitt served as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under former President Donald Trump (R) from 2017 to 2018. Prior to that, he served as the Oklahoma Attorney General from 2011 to 2017. He campaigned on energy independence, securing the border, fighting what he calls Big Tech, and stopping inflation. Pruitt said: “I think Oklahomans know that I’m going to fight for their values, I think they know that I exhibited courage in working with the president historically to get things done and I think they know that I’ve also engaged in leadership and civility. I believe very strongly that we’ll have the resources that we need.” Former Secretary of Energy and former Governor of Texas Rick Perry (R) endorsed Pruitt.

Alex Gray, Randy Grellner, Adam Holley, Laura Moreno, Paul Royse, and John Tompkins also ran in the election.

As of June 29, 2022, 16 special elections have been called during the 117th Congress. From the 113th Congress to the 116th Congress, 50 special elections were held.



Missouri redistricting commission enacted new state House boundaries on January 19

The House Independent Bipartisan Citizens Commission unanimously approved new state House district boundaries on January 19. Fourteen of the commission’s 20 members were required to approve the plan. 

Two distinct politician commissions are responsible for state legislative redistricting in Missouri—one for the state Senate and another for the state House of Representatives. To form the House commission, the congressional district committee of each major political party nominates two members per congressional district, for a total of 32 nominees. From this pool, the governor appoints one member per party per district, for a total of 16 commissioners.

If the commission had been unable to agree on a redistricting plan by January 23, authority over the process would have transferred to the Missouri Judicial Commission for Redistricting. 
In a press release issued after the map was finalized, commission chair Jerry Hunter said, “I want to personally thank all of the commissioners for the hard work that was put in by the commissioners and, obviously, as all of you know, the supporting individuals that have been instrumental to helping get this map done on both sides – on both the Democratic and Republican sides.” Rudi Keller of the Missouri Independent wrote, “Of the 163 districts…, there are 38 where Democrats should have the advantage, 97 where Republicans are dominant and 28 districts with past election results showing less than a 10% advantage for either party.”

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Missouri Judicial Redistricting Commission enacted new state Senate boundaries in March

Missouri completed its legislative redistricting on March 15 when the state’s Judicial Redistricting Commission filed new state Senate district boundaries with the secretary of state.

Two distinct politician commissions are responsible for state legislative redistricting in Missouri—one for the state Senate and another for the state House of Representatives. To form the Senate commission, the state committee of both major political parties nominates 10 members, for a total of 20 nominees. From this pool, the governor selects five members per party, for a total of 10 commissioners. 

The Senate Independent Bipartisan Citizens Commission failed to submit proposed maps to the secretary of state’s office by the December 23, 2021, deadline. Therefore, responsibility for developing Senate district boundaries was assumed by the Missouri Judicial Commission for Redistricting. The judicial commission released its final plan and sent it to the secretary of state’s office on March 15. The commission’s chair, Missouri Appeals Court Justice Cynthia Lynette Martin, said in a press release, “The Judicial Redistricting Commission’s work has been thorough and labor intensive, and was purposefully undertaken with the goal to file a constitutionally compliant plan and map well in advance of the commission’s constitutional deadline to avoid disenfranchising voters given the candidate filing deadline and the deadline for preparing ballots.”
Scott Faughn of The Missouri Times wrote that “[t]he biggest difference in this map and that previous map is that it shifts the weight of some of the districts from rural weighted districts to evenly split districts and even enhances the suburban influence inside several republican seats.” He added, “the new map produces 7 solid democratic districts, and 3 likely democratic districts. On the republican side the new map produces 18 solid republican districts, and 3 more likely republican districts,” with two competitive districts when the current incumbents no longer seek office.

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Missouri enacted new congressional boundaries in May

Missouri enacted new congressional district boundaries on May 18 when Gov. Mike Parson (R) signed them into law. According to Rudi Keller of the Missouri Independent, “No change in the partisan makeup of the Missouri delegation, currently six Republicans and two Democrats, is expected as a result of the map.” Keller also wrote, “nine counties…shifted almost wholly or entirely into new districts. Boundaries shifted in the five large-population counties that were previously split and a new split was introduced in Boone County in central Missouri.” This map takes effect for Missouri’s 2022 congressional elections.

In Missouri, congressional district boundaries are drawn by the state legislature. These lines are subject to veto by the governor.

After the Senate passed the maps, Keller wrote: “The first plan, released in December with backing from the Republican leaders of both chambers, essentially kept the partisan breakdown of the state’s delegation unchanged, with six safe Republican districts and two Democratic districts in Kansas City and St. Louis. The House passed that bill in January and, after weeks of on-and-off debate, the Senate passed a significantly altered version in late March. The seven members of the Senate’s conservative caucus demanded a map that cracked the Kansas City district and combined it with a huge swath of rural counties to make it possible for the GOP to capture the seat. The ‘6-2’ vs. ‘7-1’ debate came to a head in February when the conservative caucus began a filibuster that blocked progress not only on the redistricting plan but also on basically every other bill. At one point, two Republican Senators got into a shouting match and had to be physically separated.”

The Missouri House of Representatives approved the final version of the new congressional districts on May 9 by a vote of 101-47. Eighty-six Republicans and 15 Democrats approved the new map and 28 Democrats and 19 Republicans voted against it. The state Senate approved the legislation—known as HB 2909—on May 11 by a vote of 22-11. Sixteen Republicans and six Democrats voted to approve the new boundaries and seven Republicans and four Democrats voted against it.

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Krishnamoorthi defeats Democratic primary challenger in Illinois’ 8th Congressional District

Incumbent U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi defeated Junaid Ahmed in the Democratic primary for Illinois’ 8th Congressional District on June 28, 2022.

According to unofficial results, Krishnamoorthi received 71% of the vote to Ahmed’s 29%.

Krishnamoorthi was first elected to represent the 8th District in 2016. Before entering office, Krishnamoorthi was a partner at the law firm Kirkland & Ellis and president of a research and development company. He also worked as a policy director on Barack Obama’s (D) 2004 Senate campaign.

Krishnamoorthi, who immigrated to the U.S. as a child, emphasized his experience in office and said he “worked his hardest to ensure other Americans have the same opportunities his family had to achieve the American Dream.” Krishnamoorthi said he “co-authored successful legislation to expand federal support for career and technical education” and “[advocated] for protecting Social Security and Medicare.” Krishnamoorthi received endorsements from the Chicago Tribune and Planned Parenthood Action Fund.

As of June 8, 2022, Krishnamoorthi had raised $6.5 million and Ahmed had raised $1.1 million.

During the primary, Ahmed criticized Krishnamoorthi on the amount of money the incumbent raised, saying, “[W]e are being represented by a political class who are more interested in representing the needs of their corporate donors … than in representing the needs of the hard working families of the 8th district.”

In a debate, Krishnamoorthi said, “I raise as much as I can because I go after the special interests in Washington. … You can ask the rental car companies, the meat processing companies, the oil and gas companies that I’m now investigating what they think of me.”

Following redistricting, the 8th District remained in the Chicago area. At the time of the primary, three election forecasters rated the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic.