Category2022 elections

Election legislation roundup: Florida House of Representatives

By Mercedes Yanora
In 2022 elections
March 10, 2023 at 3:51 PM

As of March 5, Ballotpedia has tracked eight election-related bills in the Florida House of Representatives since the beginning of the year. Of the eight, Ballotpedia tracked four from Feb. 27-March 5. Republicans sponsored three, while Democrats sponsored one. The four bills are:

  • FL H1249: Limited English-proficient Voter Assistance, Reps. Kristen Arrington (D), Lisa Dunkley (D), Anna Eskamani (D), Johanna Lopez (D), and Katherine Waldron (D).
  • FL H0731: Local Tax Referenda Requirements, Rep. John Temple (R).
  • FL H0945: Jupiter Inlet District, Palm Beach County, Rep. John Snyder (R).
  • FL H1175: Sarasota County, Rep. James Buchanan (R).

During the week of Feb. 27 to March 5, Ballotpedia tracked 69 House election-related bills nationally. As of March 5, Ballotpedia has tracked 946 House bills nationally. Ballotpedia tracked the most House bills this year in the New York State Assembly with 128, while Ballotpedia tracked the fewest House bills in Alabama, Louisiana, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania with zero. Republicans sponsored 429 of these bills, while Democrats sponsored 388. Third party sponsorship and bills with no sponsors accounted for 67 bills, while bipartisan legislators sponsored 62.

As of March 5, Ballotpedia has tracked 540 House bills in Democratic trifectas and 317 House bills in Republican trifectas. A trifecta is when one political party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Ballotpedia has tracked 89 House bills in states where neither party holds trifecta control.

The Florida House is scheduled to be in session from March 7 to May 5 this year. In 2022, Ballotpedia tracked 13 House bills related to election administration. Zero of these bills passed both chambers. Florida is a Republican trifecta.

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The final state legislative election of 2022

By Douglas Kronaizl
In 2022 elections
February 16, 2023 at 9:09 PM

On Feb. 21, voters in New Hampshire’s House Stafford 8 District will determine the winner of the only remaining uncalled state legislative election of the 2022 cycle.

The seat was up for election on Nov. 8, but ended in a 970 to 970 vote tie, resulting in a redo election between incumbent Chuck Grassie (D) and David Walker (R).

Regarding the initial tied result, Grassie said, “this was not unexpected … We both ran good campaigns … and we’re both well-known in the community.” Walker said, “We’ve known each other for over 30 years, both well-known in the ward, so it is what it is.”

A redo election is a process of voiding election results and holding a new election. The specific reasons for calling a redo election vary but can include anything from a tied vote to deliberate efforts to obscure results to mistakes like a broken voting machine.

While New Hampshire’s redo election will not affect control of the state House, it will determine the extent of Republican control in the 400-member chamber, the nation’s largest.

If Grassie wins re-election, Republicans will control 201 seats to Democrats’ 197. If Walker wins, Republicans will extend their majority to 202 versus Democrats’ 196. Two seats, previously held by Democrats, are also currently vacant.

Under New Hampshire state law, in the event of a tied legislative race, the state Legislature either determines the winner or sets a process for deciding the winner.

Calling a redo election is not unprecedented in New Hampshire. The Legislature followed a similar course of action in 1992, also in response to a tied result.

Connecticut held a redo Democratic primary in House District 127 last September. In that race, officials learned that four ineligible voters had cast absentee/mail-in ballots, a larger number than the two-vote margin separating the candidates. Challenger Marcus Brown (D) defeated incumbent John Hennessy (D) in the redo election.



At least 56 minor party or independent candidates in 2022 received more votes than the margin of victory in their election

By Dave Beaudoin
In 2022 elections
February 15, 2023 at 7:53 PM

In the 2022 elections, at least 56 minor party or independent candidates received more votes than the margin of victory in their election. There were five such candidates in elections for federal office and 18 in elections for statewide offices.

In 2020, by comparison, at least 77 minor party or independent candidates received more votes than the margin of victory in their election. That year, there were eight such candidates in elections for federal office and 23 in elections for statewide offices.

In 2022, the partisan affiliation of these candidates was as follows:

  • 23 Libertarian Party candidates
  • 15 independent or unaffiliated candidates
  • Five Green Party candidates
  • Three Constitution Party candidates
  • Two U.S. Taxpayer’s Party candidates
  • Two Working Class Party candidates
  • One American Constitution Party candidate
  • One Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis Party of Minnesota candidate
  • One Independent American Party candidate
  • One Independence Party candidate
  • One Legal Marijuana Now Party candidate
  • One United Utah Party candidate

Notable examples of federal or statewide elections include those for U.S. Senate in Nevada, Michigan’s 10th Congressional District, and Wisconsin Secretary of State.

In Nevada’s U.S. Senate election, incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto (D) defeated Adam Laxalt (R) by 7,928 votes. Independent candidate Barry Lindemann received 8,075 votes.

Two candidates received more votes than the margin of victory in the open-seat race for Michigan’s 10th Congressional District. John James (R) defeated Carl Marlinga (D) by 1,600 votes—0.5% of the total votes cast. Andrea Kirby (Working Class Party) received 1.8% of the vote, and Mike Saliba (L) received 1.1%.

Two candidates received more votes than the margin of victory in the Wisconsin Secretary of State election. Incumbent Douglas J. La Follette (D) defeated Amy Loudenbeck (R) by 7,442 votes—0.3% of the total votes cast in the race. Neil Harmon (L) received 2.1% of the vote, and Sharyl McFarland (Green) received 1.6%.

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More U.S. House elections decided by MOVs of five percentage points or less in 2022 than in 2020

By Juan Garcia de Paredes
In 2022 elections, Federal
January 27, 2023 at 11:27 AM

In 2022, 40 U.S. House elections were decided by margins of victory of five percentage points (pp) or less, up from 37 in 2020. 

Democrats won 22 of those races, up from 19 in 2020. Republicans won 18, the same number as in 2020.

California and New York each had five races decided by five percentage points or less — the most in the country. Three of Nevada’s four districts were decided by such margins.

In Nevada, Democrats won the three districts decided by 5 pp or less – more than in any other state. In New York, Republicans won four of five races decided by 5 pp or less – more than in any other state.

In 2020, California and Texas had the most districts decided by five percentage points or less, with four each, followed by Iowa and Pennsylvania, with three districts each.

Democrats were most successful in Pennsylvania, where they won all three districts decided by five percentage points or less. Republicans were most successful in California, where they won all four districts decided by such margins.

 

Compared to previous cycles, Democrats won more U.S. House races decided by five percentage points or less this year than in any other year since 2012. On the Republican side, the 18 races the party won this year are tied with 2020 as the second-most they have won since 2012.

The closest U.S. House election this year was in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 votes cast. Boebert’s margin was 540 votes more than the closest race in 2020. In that race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated Rita Hart (D) by a margin of 6 votes out of nearly 400,000 cast, the narrowest margin of victory in any U.S. House election since 1984.



Tallying error in Oakland, Calif., led to inaccurate election results

By Roneka Matheny
In 2022 elections, Local
January 26, 2023 at 11:23 AM

On December 28, 2022, the Alameda County Registrar of Voters acknowledged in a press release that the initial certified results were incorrect for the school director race in District 4 of the Oakland Unified School District in California.

Although Nick Resnick was certified as the winner of the race in November, Mike Hutchinson, who originally finished third, says he was later told by election officials that he won: “Without being cynical, I now believe in holiday miracles. So it was very shocking to wake up this morning and receive a phone call at 10:30 a.m. from the Alameda County head of elections informing me that I had actually won the election.” Hutchinson filed a petition in Alameda County Superior Court on December 29, 2022, asking a judge to overrule the prior certification and name him the official winner.

According to the press release from the Alameda County Registrar of Voters:

“The ROV learned that its RCV tally system was not configured properly for the November 2022 General Election. It should have been configured to advance ballots to the next ranking immediately when no candidate was selected for a particular round. … After reviewing the election data and applying the correct configuration, the ROV learned that only one outcome was affected: Oakland School Director, District 4, for the Oakland Unified School District. No other result for any RCV election in any jurisdiction was changed.”

California Ranked Choice Voting Coalition and FairVote, two organizations that supported the use of ranked-choice voting in California, discovered the error while auditing the election results. They found that county officials used the wrong method to tally votes that did not include a first choice candidate. Sean Dugar, consulting executive director of the California Ranked Choice Voting Coalition, said, “In Alameda County, the correct setting should have advanced the second choice to become the first choice … The algorithm and the election officials almost always get it right. In this instance, it was simply a button that was left checked in the menu option for the algorithm.”

Resnick’s attorney responded to the developments in a letter to the Alameda County Registrar of Voters, saying, “We are not aware of any legal authority… which allows the registrar’s office to retabulate election results or take any other actions vis-a-vis the results of an election after it completes the official canvass and the results are certified by the local governing body.” 

As of January 2023, litigation was ongoing. Resnick was officially sworn into the position of District 4 Oakland school director on January 9, 2023.



Results of state executive endorsements in 2022 school board elections

By Joel Williams
In 2022 elections, Local
January 19, 2023 at 11:34 AM

Ballotpedia tracked 106 endorsements of school board candidates by state executive officials and candidates in 2022. Endorsements included official statements, appearances at campaign rallies, and direct participation in campaign ads and materials. The state executives and candidates to make endorsements were:

  • Arizona: Gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) and Superintendent of Public Instruction candidate Shiry Sapir (R)
  • California: Attorney general candidate Eric Early (R)
  • Florida: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist (D), and Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez (R)
  • Maryland: Gubernatorial candidate Dan Cox (R)

DeSantis was the only executive whose full slate of candidates won. Across all 106 endorsements, candidates had a 56.6% success rate.



2022 elections see second-highest nationwide midterm voter turnout since 2002

By Ellen Morrissey
In 2022 elections
January 12, 2023 at 12:00 PM
Image of several stickers with the words "I voted"

The 2022 elections saw the second-highest midterm voter turnout since 2002, according to data compiled by the United States Election Project. The turnout rate in 2022 was 46.8%. Since 2002, the highest midterm turnout rate was in 2018, at 50.3%, and the lowest was in 2014, at 36.7%.

At the state level, Oregon had the highest voter turnout in 2022, at 61.51%. Tennessee had the lowest turnout, at 31.34%. See the chart below for turnout rates in each state.

Comparing 2022 turnout rates to 2018, the most recent midterm election, North Dakota saw the largest drop in turnout, going from 58.6% in 2018 to 42.9% in 2022. The largest increase was in South Carolina where turnout increased from 45.2% in 2018 to 54.2% in 2022.

Among the five states that saw the largest decrease in voter turnout, four states had Republican trifectas and one state had a Democratic trifecta at the time of the 2022 elections. North Dakota (-15.68%), Tennessee (-13.76%), Mississippi (-9.81%), and Alabama (-9.56%) had Republican trifectas. New Jersey (-11.64%) had a Democratic trifecta.

Of the five states that had the largest increase in voter turnout, three had Republican trifectas, one had a Democratic trifecta, and one had divided government. South Carolina (+9.04%), Indiana (+3.26%), and New Hampshire (+1.71%) had Republican trifectas. Hawaii (+1.76%) had a Democratic trifecta, and Pennsylvania (+3.28%) had a divided government.

See the charts below for the five largest decreases and increases in voter turnout between 2018 and 2022.

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Twelve delegations become more Republican and nine become more Democratic in the 118th Congress

By Juan Garcia de Paredes
In 2022 elections, Federal
December 22, 2022 at 7:43 PM

As a result of the 2022 elections, the congressional delegations of 12 states will become more Republican because Republicans in those states gained seats, Democrats lost seats, or a combination of the two. The congressional delegations of nine states will become more Democratic because Democrats in those states gained seats, Republicans lost seats, or a combination of the two.

New York and Florida experienced the largest swings in total seats toward Republicans. In New York, Democrats lost four seats and Republicans gained three, while in Florida, Democrats lost three seats and Republicans gained four.

Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina experienced the largest swings in total seats toward Democrats. In Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, Democrats gained one seat and Republicans lost two seats, while in North Carolina, Democrats gained two seats and Republicans lost one.

Despite gaining two seats due to apportionment, the partisan split of Texas’ congressional delegation remained the same as each party won one of the newly created seats.

The 2022 election was the first election after the 2020 census, and the size of some state delegations changed as a result of the congressional apportionment process. Five states gained seats and will send larger delegations to the 118th Congress. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon gained one seat each, and Texas gained two seats. Seven states — California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia — lost one seat each due to the 2020 census and will send smaller delegations to the 118th Congress.

Thirty-three states will send at least one new member to the 118th Congress, while 17 states will send the same members of Congress that represented them at the start of the 117th Congress.

Oregon will send the greatest percentage of new members to the 118th Congress: 37.5% of the Oregon delegation was not seated at the start of the 117th Congress.



Republicans increase control over state legislative districts overlapping with Pivot Counties and Reverse-Pivot Counties

By Joel Williams
In 2022 elections
December 22, 2022 at 7:32 PM

After the 2022 elections, Republicans hold 540 (65.9%) state legislative seats overlapping a Pivot County, up from 507 (63.6%) after the 2020 elections. Democrats hold 280 state legislative seats (34.1%) overlapping a Pivot County, down from 290 (36.4%) after the 2020 elections. Pivot Counties are the 206 counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in the 2016 presidential election.

Reverse-Pivot Counties overlapped with 104 state legislative seats (32 state senate seats and 72 state house seats). Democrats won 63 seats (60.6%) and Republicans won 41 (39.4%). Following the 2020 elections, 58 Democratic legislators (61.1%) represented districts overlapping a Reverse-Pivot County and 37 Republican legislators (38.9%) represented districts overlapping a Reverse-Pivot County. Reverse-Pivot Counties are the six counties that voted for John McCain (R) in the 2008 presidential election, Mitt Romney (R) in the 2012 presidential election, and Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election.

In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won 181 Pivot Counties and Joe Biden (D) won 25 Pivot Counties. The counties that Trump won in 2020 are Retained Pivot Counties, while those that Biden won are Boomerang Pivot Counties.



94% of incumbents won re-election in 2022 general election

By Kate Carsella
In 2022 elections
December 22, 2022 at 7:21 PM

Ballotpedia covered all state and federal races on Nov. 8, 2022, as well as local elections in America’s 100 largest cities by population. In the 2022 general election, an average of 94% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids.

Comparatively, in the 2021 general election, 86% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids. In the 2020 November election, 93% of incumbents were successful.

  • The incumbent win rate remained at or above 90% in all but nine states: Alaska, California, Louisiana, Nevada, New Jersey, North Dakota, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia.
  • The lowest overall incumbent win rate was in Virginia with 77%. Delaware, Massachusetts, and Mississippi were the only states to see a 100% incumbent win rate.
  • Congressional incumbents had a 98% win rate. Forty-one states had a 100% win rate in congressional races.
  • State-level incumbents had a 96% win rate. Six states had a 100% win rate in state-level races.
  • State legislative incumbents had a 96% average win rate.
  • Local-level incumbents had a 90% average win rate. Thirteen states had a 100% win rate in local-level races.
  • Local legislative incumbents saw an average incumbent win rate of 84%.

The analysis below includes data compiled by Ballotpedia on the 7,619 incumbents who ran for re-election on Nov. 8, 2022. Some races remain uncalled.

The table below shows the win rate for each state and office type:

The map below highlights each state based on its incumbent win rate: