Welcome to the Wednesday, November 16, Brew.
By: David Luchs
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- At least 2.6% of state legislative incumbents lost on Nov. 8, with 343 races uncalled
- Voters addressed 132 statewide ballot measures on Nov. 8
- Ballotpedia’s free down-ballot results webinar is tomorrow
At least 2.6% of state legislative incumbents lost on Nov. 8, with 343 races uncalled
We’ve finished processing 93% of the Nov. 8 races featuring state legislative incumbents. Based on preliminary results, at least 121 state legislative incumbents—73 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and three independent or minor party officeholders—have lost.
Forty-six states held state legislative elections for 88 of the country’s 99 chambers. Across those races, at least 2.6% of incumbents running for re-election have lost.
This figure is expected to increase. There are currently 343 races featuring incumbents that remain uncalled.
The states with the largest percentage of defeated incumbents so far are West Virginia and North Dakota, where 10.3% (9) and 10.4% (7) of incumbents on the ballot lost, respectively. Both states still have uncalled races featuring incumbents, so these figures could increase.
In ten states, no incumbents lost, though nine of those states still have uncalled races featuring incumbents.
In Texas, all races are called, and, for the first time in over a decade, every incumbent running for re-election won.
Based on the races called so far, Democratic incumbents have lost at a higher rate than Republicans.
Of the 2,198 Democratic incumbents running in general elections, 73 (3.3%) have lost. For Republicans, 45 of the 2,405 who filed for re-election (1.9%) have lost.
We’ve also been keeping an eye on overall control of state legislative chambers and the effect those elections have had on state government trifectas. As of writing, Democrats have gained four trifectas in states that were under divided government heading into the election (Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota). Republicans and Democrats have both lost a single trifecta, with Republicans losing their trifecta in Arizona and Democrats losing theirs in Nevada.
With Alaska’s final trifecta status undetermined, there will be 22 states with Republican trifectas, 17 with Democratic trifectas, and 10 with divided government following this year’s elections.
Voters addressed 132 statewide ballot measures on Nov. 8
On Nov. 8, voters in 37 states decided on 132 statewide ballot measures. Let’s check in on the status of where they stand. As of Nov. 14, voters approved 87 (66%) and defeated 38 (29%). Seven (5%) remained uncalled; five were leaning ‘No’ and two were leaning ‘Yes.’
In 2020, 120 measures were on the ballot in November. Voters approved 88 (73%) and defeated 32 (27%). From 2010 to 2020, 67% of statewide ballot measures were approved.
Nov. 8 wasn’t the last state ballot measure election of 2022. On Dec. 10, voters in Louisiana will decide on three constitutional amendments, including an amendment to prohibit local governments from allowing non-citizens to vote. The other two amendments would require Senate confirmation for appointees to the State Civil Service Commission and State Police Commission.
Earlier in 2022, voters in four states decided on five ballot measures. Voters approved three and rejected two of these measures.
Ballotpedia’s Editor in Chief Geoff Pallay and Managing Editor for Ballot Measures Ryan Byrne recapped the results in this year’s ballot measures in a webinar last week. Click here to view a free recording.
Ballotpedia’s free down-ballot results webinar is tomorrow
You know the major election results; now let us fill you in on what you may not have seen on election day.
Join Ballotpedia’s Editor in Chief, Geoff Pallay, and Managing Editor, Cory Eucalitto for a breakdown of the key results and trends from 2022’s November elections. We’ll examine results from state-level elections to local ballot measures across the country.
The webinar will start at 2:30 p.m. Eastern. A recording will be made available here later Thursday.