As of May 15, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.42, followed by former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.34, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.19. Biden has held the lead in this market since Jan. 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
Trump and Biden are the only candidates of this group to have officially announced their presidential campaigns.
The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.74. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.13.
Trump leads the Republican presidential primary market at $0.57. He’s led this market since March 24, 2023. Trump is followed by DeSantis, who stands at $0.30. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections.