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Ellen Morrissey

Ellen Morrissey is a staff writer at Ballotpedia. Contact us at editor@ballotpedia.org.

DeSantis leads PredictIt’s 2024 general presidential election market

As of January 23, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) leading at $0.31, followed by President Joe Biden (D) at $0.29, former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.21, and California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) at $0.12. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.

Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading the pack at $0.52. Two other candidates have a share price at or above $0.10: California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) is at $0.20, and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) is at $0.11.

DeSantis currently leads in the Republican presidential primary market at $0.38, followed by Trump at $0.32. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading on February 15, 2023.



2024 presidential candidate filings currently at third-highest level in forty years

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Five hundred and thirty-one people have filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for president in 2024 as of January 17. The list includes 77 Democratic candidates (14.5%), 145 Republican candidates (27.3%), and 309 nonpartisan or minor party candidates (58.2%). This figure excludes candidates whose filings have expired or who we identified as fake candidates.

Any person running for president that raises or spends more than $5,000 for a campaign must file a Statement of Candidacy with the FEC within 15 days. To do so, that person must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for at least 14 years. A Statement of Candidacy includes basic information like the candidate’s name and address and any campaign committees working for them.

The number of filings in the 2024 election is the third most in forty years. In 2016, 1,762 candidates filed with the FEC to run for president. In 2020, 1,212 candidates filed. 

The 1984 presidential election had the highest proportion of Democratic candidates since 1980—40.1%. The major party candidates running that year were incumbent Ronald Reagan (R) and Walter Mondale (D). The 2012 election, had the highest proportion of Republican candidates in that time—29.0%. The major party candidates that year were incumbent Barack Obama (D) and Mitt Romney (R). The highest proportion of nonpartisan or minor party candidates filed in 2016 (70.4%), which featured Hillary Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R).

The current proportion of 2024 candidates—14.5% Democratic, 27.3% Republican, and 58.2% nonpartisan or minor party candidates—most closely resemble the averages seen in presidential elections with a Democratic incumbent. President Joe Biden (D) has not announced a re-election campaign, but he is eligible to run for a second term in 2024.



PredictIt markets show Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis at even odds in the 2024 presidential election

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As of January 17, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows incumbent Joe Biden (D) tied with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.31. At this time last week, Biden led DeSantis by $0.03. Former President Donald Trump’s (R) share price has risen over the last week, going from $0.16 to $0.20. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. 

Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.54, down 10 cents from this time last week. Two other candidates have a share price at or above $0.10: California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) is at $0.18, and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) is at $0.10.

DeSantis currently leads in the Republican presidential primary market at $0.39, followed by Trump at $0.34. At this time last week, DeSantis led by $0.44 to Trump’s $0.28. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading on February 15, 2023.



2022 elections see second-highest nationwide midterm voter turnout since 2002

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The 2022 elections saw the second-highest midterm voter turnout since 2002, according to data compiled by the United States Election Project. The turnout rate in 2022 was 46.8%. Since 2002, the highest midterm turnout rate was in 2018, at 50.3%, and the lowest was in 2014, at 36.7%.

At the state level, Oregon had the highest voter turnout in 2022, at 61.51%. Tennessee had the lowest turnout, at 31.34%. See the chart below for turnout rates in each state.

Comparing 2022 turnout rates to 2018, the most recent midterm election, North Dakota saw the largest drop in turnout, going from 58.6% in 2018 to 42.9% in 2022. The largest increase was in South Carolina where turnout increased from 45.2% in 2018 to 54.2% in 2022.

Among the five states that saw the largest decrease in voter turnout, four states had Republican trifectas and one state had a Democratic trifecta at the time of the 2022 elections. North Dakota (-15.68%), Tennessee (-13.76%), Mississippi (-9.81%), and Alabama (-9.56%) had Republican trifectas. New Jersey (-11.64%) had a Democratic trifecta.

Of the five states that had the largest increase in voter turnout, three had Republican trifectas, one had a Democratic trifecta, and one had divided government. South Carolina (+9.04%), Indiana (+3.26%), and New Hampshire (+1.71%) had Republican trifectas. Hawaii (+1.76%) had a Democratic trifecta, and Pennsylvania (+3.28%) had a divided government.

See the charts below for the five largest decreases and increases in voter turnout between 2018 and 2022.

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Biden currently leads PredictIt’s 2024 presidential general election market

As of January 9, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows incumbent Joe Biden (D) holding a lead at $0.34, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.31, and former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.16. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. 

Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading the pack at $0.64. The only other candidate to have more than a $0.10 share price is California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) at $0.13.

DeSantis currently leads in the Republican presidential primary market at $0.44, followed by Trump at $0.28. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. 

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading on February 15, 2023.



President Joe Biden (D) holds narrow lead in PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market

As of January 3, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows incumbent Joe Biden (D) holding a narrow lead at $0.33, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.32, and former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.16. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. 

Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading the pack at $0.61. The only other candidates to have more than a $0.10 share price are California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) at $0.12 and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) at $0.11.

DeSantis currently leads in the Republican presidential primary market at $0.44, followed by Trump at $0.26. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. 

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading on February 15, 2023.



President Joe Biden (D) issued 29 executive orders in 2022

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President Joe Biden (D) issued 29 executive orders in 2022, the fewest by a president in their second year in office since Bill Clinton (D) issued one executive order in 1994. President Donald Trump (R) issued 37 executive orders in his second year in office in 2018, the most since Clinton.

Biden has issued 106 executive orders in his presidency, an average of 53 per year. Since 1981, when Ronald Reagan(D) was sworn into office, this is the second-highest average per year. Trump’s average is highest within this timeframe, at 55 executive orders, and Barack Obama’s (D) is lowest, at 35.

Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) issued the most executive orders per year in American history, at 307 on average. William Henry Harrison (Whig) issued no executive orders during his one month in office. Three presidents issued only one executive order during their presidencies: James Madison (Democratic-Republican), James Monroe (Democratic-Republican), and John Adams (Federalist).



President Joe Biden ends 2022 with a 43% approval rating, the second-highest rating he received in 2022

At the end of 2022, polling averages showed 43% of voters approved of President Joe Biden’s (D) performance. Fifty-three percent of voters disapproved of his performance. 

Biden’s highest approval rating in 2022 was 44%, last seen on November 2, and the lowest was 38%, last seen on July 27. This is also the lowest approval rating of Biden’s presidency. The highest approval rating Biden has received during his presidency is 55%, last seen on May 26, 2021.

Congress was at 28% approval and 62% disapproval at the end of December. This was Congress’ highest approval rating of 2022, with its lowest being 14%, last seen on January 26. This was also the lowest approval rating of the 117th Congress. The highest approval rating Congress has received during the Biden presidency is 36%, last seen on July 16, 2021.

At the end of 2018 during the Trump administration, presidential approval was the same at 43%, and congressional approval was nine points lower at 19%.

Ballotpedia’s polling index takes the average of polls conducted over the last thirty days to calculate presidential and congressional approval ratings. We average the results and show all polling results side-by-side because we believe that paints a clearer picture of public opinion than any individual poll can provide. The data is updated daily as new polling results are published.



Here’s how the timeline of presidential campaign announcements played out in 2020 and 2016

Former President Donald Trump (R) declared his candidacy for president in the 2024 election in November. Incumbent President Joe Biden (D) has said he plans to make his intentions about running for re-election public after the holidays. As 2023 begins, here’s a look at when presidential candidates declared their candidacies in 2020 and 2016.

In the 2020 cycle, Trump was also the first noteworthy candidate to declare, filing for re-election the day of his inauguration in 2017. Michael Bloomberg (D), the final noteworthy candidate to declare, launched his campaign on November 24, 2019. January and April 2019 tied for the months with the most noteworthy candidate declarations, both at 6.

Biden, the winner of the 2020 presidential election, declared on April 25, 2019, making him the 23rd noteworthy candidate to do so.

We defined noteworthy candidates as individuals who met one or more of the following criteria: previously held office as a member of Congress, governor, state executive, state legislator, or mayor of a city with a population of 100,000 or more, met a polling or fundraising threshold for inclusion in debates, or was set to appear on at least 15 state ballots.

In the 2016 cycle, Ted Cruz (R) was the first noteworthy candidate to declare on March 23, 2015. The final noteworthy declaration came from Lawrence Lessig (D) on September 6, 2015. June 2015 saw the most noteworthy presidential declarations at 6, followed by May 2015 at 5.

Trump, the winner of the 2016 presidential election, declared on June 16, 2015, making him the 16th noteworthy candidate to declare. The Democratic nominee for president, Hillary Clinton (D), declared on April 12, 2015, making her the 3rd noteworthy candidate to declare.

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Democratic party committees pulled ahead or Republicans in cumulative 2022 fundraising

Six party committees have raised a combined $1.8 billion through November 28 according to the penultimate Federal Election Commission campaign finance reports for the 2022 election cycle. During the most recent filing period, the Democratic committees raised $91 million and the Republican committees raised $57 million. 

From October 20 to November 28, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) raised $35 million and spent $56 million, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) raised $12 million and spent $15 million. Cumulatively in the 2022 election cycle, the DSCC has outraised the NRSC with $286 million in receipts to the NRSC’s $247 million. At this point in the 2020 election cycle, the NRSC led in cumulative fundraising with $295 million to the DSCC’s $280 million. 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) raised $36 million and spent $47 million during the most recent filing period. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) raised $25 million and spent $39 million. Cumulatively in the 2022 election cycle, the DCCC leads in fundraising with $360 million to the NRCC’s $287 million. At this point in the 2020 cycle, the DCCC had raised $339 million and the NRCC had raised $271 million.

Between the national committees, the Republican National Committee (RNC) raised more than the Democratic National Committee (DNC) from October 20 to November 28. The DNC raised $19.7 million and spent $27.4 million, while the RNC raised $19.8 million and spent $27.0 million. Cumulatively this cycle, the RNC has raised $328 million to the DNC’s $298 million. At this time in the 2020 election cycle, the RNC led in fundraising with $845 million in cumulative receipts to the DNC’s $455 million.

This election cycle, the DNC, DSCC, and DCCC have raised 9.1% more than the RNC, NRSC, and NRCC ($944 million to $862 million). 

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