Two noteworthy candidates recently entered the race for president of the United States: entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy (R), and author and 2020 presidential candidate Marianne Williamson (D).
Ramaswamy joins former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R), former President Donald Trump (R), and former Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton (R) in the Republican primary.
Williamson is the first Democratic candidate to declare their candidacy. President Joe Biden (D) has not yet made an official announcement regarding whether he intends to run for a second term.
At this point in the 2020 cycle, fourteen noteworthy candidates had announced their campaigns:
Jan. 20, 2017: Donald Trump (R)
Aug. 10, 2017: John Delaney (D)
Nov. 6, 2017: Andrew Yang (D)
Jan. 1, 2019: Tulsi Gabbard (D)
Jan. 12, 2019: Julián Castro (D)
Jan. 15, 2019: Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Jan. 21, 2019: Kamala Harris (D)
Jan. 23, 2019: Pete Buttigieg (D)
Jan. 28, 2019: Marian5ne Williamson (D)
Feb. 1, 2019: Cory Booker (D)
Feb. 9, 2019: Elizabeth Warren (D)
Feb. 12, 2019: Amy Klobuchar (D)
Feb. 19, 2019: Bernie Sanders (I)
March 1, 2019: Jay Inslee (D)
Biden, the eventual Democratic nominee and winner of the 2020 presidential election, announced on April 25, 2019.
In the 2016 election cycle, no noteworthy candidates had launched their campaigns as of March 1, 2015. The first announcement came on March 23 from Senator Ted Cruz (R). Hillary Clinton, the eventual Democratic nominee, announced her campaign on April 12, 2015. Trump, the eventual Republican nominee, announced his on June 16, 2015.
At the end of February, polling averages showed 44% of voters approved of President Joe Biden’s (D) performance. Fifty-one percent of voters disapproved of his performance.
Throughout February, Biden’s average approval rating remained between 43% and 45%. Our average showed him at 45% on February 23 and 24. The last time Biden had 45% approval was in October 2021. At the end of January, he held a 43% approval rating.
The lowest approval rating he’s received is 38%, last seen on July 27, 2022 The highest approval rating Biden has received is 55%, last seen on May 26, 2021.
At the end of February, congressional approval was at 27% and disapproval was at 63%. The highest approval rating the 117th Congress received was 36%, last seen on July 16, 2021, and the lowest approval rating it received was 14%, last seen on Jan. 26, 2022.
At this time during the Trump administration, presidential approval was one point lower at 43%, and congressional approval was seven points lower at 20%.
Ballotpedia’s polling index takes the average of polls conducted over the last thirty days to calculate presidential and congressional approval ratings. We average the results and show all polling results side-by-side because we believe that paints a clearer picture of public opinion than any individual poll can provide. The data is updated daily as new polling results are published.
As of Feb. 28, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) as the favorite to win at $0.36, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.28, and former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.25. Biden has held the lead in this market since Jan. 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.
The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading the pack at $0.61. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.15.
Trump and DeSantis are tied in the Republican presidential primary market, both at $0.38. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. Former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R), who formally announced her candidacy on Feb. 14, is at $0.09.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading. The platform was initially set to shut down on February 15, but the CFTC action is currently under injunction as a court considers PredictIt’s appeal to the decision.
As of February 21, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.36, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.29, and former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.27. Biden has held the lead in this market since January 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.
The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading the pack at $0.63. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.13.
Trump and DeSantis are tied in the Republican presidential primary market, both at $0.38. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. Former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R), who formally announced her candidacy on February 14, is at $0.09.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading. The platform was initially set to shut down on February 15, but the CFTC action is currently under injunction as a court considers PredictIt’s appeal to the decision.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) has outraised the Democratic National Committee (DNC) so far in the 2024 presidential election cycle, according to their most recent filings with the Federal Election Commission.
From January 2021, the beginning of the 2024 presidential election campaign finance cycle, through January 2023, the RNC has raised $340 million in cumulative receipts, while the DNC has raised $315 million, giving the RNC an 8% fundraising advantage.
These are the tightest fundraising numbers between the national committees at this point in a presidential election cycle since at least 2012. In 2020 and 2016, the RNC led in cumulative receipts by 19% and 61%, respectively. In 2012, the DNC led by 14%.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Republican National Committee (RNC) each spend on behalf of their party’s candidate during presidential elections. The following chart displays the percentage difference between the DNC and RNC’s overall fundraising every month for the 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential election cycles. A positive number indicates that the RNC had outraised the DNC at that point while a negative number indicates that the DNC had outraised the RNC. “Year 1” refers to the year after the last election (2009/2013/2017/2021), “Year 2” to the midterm before the election (2010/2014/2018/2022), etc.
Former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (R) announced on Feb. 14 that she was running for president of the United States. In a video, she said, “It’s time for a new generation of leadership to rediscover fiscal responsibility, secure our border, and strengthen our country, our pride, and our purpose.” The announcement made Haley the third noteworthy candidate for president, along with former President Donald Trump and former Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton.
On the Democratic side, former President Joe Biden (D) has not yet made an official announcement regarding whether he intends to run for a second term.
At this point in the 2020 cycle, twelve noteworthy candidates had announced their campaigns:
January 20, 2017: Donald Trump (R)
August 10, 2017: John Delaney (D)
November 6, 2017: Andrew Yang (D)
January 1, 2019: Tulsi Gabbard (D)
January 12, 2019: Julián Castro (D)
January 15, 2019: Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
January 21, 2019: Kamala Harris (D)
January 23, 2019: Pete Buttigieg (D)
January 28, 2019: Marianne Williamson (D)
February 1, 2019: Cory Booker (D)
February 9, 2019: Elizabeth Warren (D)
February 12, 2019: Amy Klobuchar (D)
Headlines at this time in the 2020 cycle included campaign visits to several early primary states from declared candidates. Gillibrand visited New Hampshire and South Carolina, Gabbard visited Iowa, and Harris visited Nevada. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) also announced the polling and fundraising thresholds for primary debate participation.
On the Republican side, Trump held his first campaign rally of the year in El Paso, Texas, and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld (R) launched an exploratory committee to challenge Trump. Weld ultimately launched a campaign on April 15, 2019, and ended his campaign a month later.
At this point in the 2016 cycle, no candidates had announced campaigns for the presidency. However, the DNC announced it had selected Philadelphia as the national convention host city. The city had last hosted the Republican National Convention in 2000 when George W. Bush won his party’s nomination. The other 2016 finalists were New York City and Columbus.
As of February 14, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.35, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.30, and former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.27. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.
The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading the pack at $0.62. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.15.
Trump holds a narrow lead in the Republican presidential primary market at $0.38, followed by DeSantis at $0.37. Former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R), who formally announced her candidacy on February 14, is at $0.10. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading. The platform was initially set to shut down on February 15, but the CFTC action is currently under injunction as a court considers PredictIt’s appeal to the decision.
The Democratic National Committee approved a new set of early presidential primary states on February 4. The plan sets South Carolina as the first primary state on February 3, 2024, followed by New Hampshire and Nevada on February 6, Georgia on February 13, and Michigan on February 27. In 2020, the early primary states were Iowa on February 3, New Hampshire on February 11, Nevada on February 22, and South Carolina on February 29.
Though the new plan has received final approval from the DNC, some uncertainties remain. In many states, presidential primary dates are not only governed by political parties but also by state law and state election regulators.
Additionally, the Republican National Committee voted to approve its presidential primary calendar in April 2022, re-establishing the early line-up of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, in that order. Both parties penalize noncompliance with early primary line-ups by reducing the number of delegates a state has at the national convention, thereby limiting that state’s influence on the presidential nominating process.
Here’s where things stand in each state slated for a presidential primary by either the Democratic or Republican National Committees.
Iowa law requires presidential nominating caucuses to be held at least eight days before any other state’s primary. However, the law does not outline consequences for violation, and Iowa has previously held caucuses fewer than eight days before another primary. State parties select caucus dates in Iowa, and the state Democratic Party has expressed opposition to moving their caucus out of the early window.
South Carolina presidential primaries are run and funded by the state government, but state parties select the date their primaries take place. This means that Democrats don’t need approval from the Republican trifecta state government to move the presidential primary earlier in the calendar, and a date change on the Democratic side would not affect the Republican primary date.
New Hampshire officials have expressed opposition to its new place in the Democratic primary line-up. Citing state law, which requires New Hampshire to hold the first presidential primary (excluding caucuses), New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan (R) said he would ensure the state holds its primary first. This would violate DNC rules and result in fewer delegates at the national convention. However, consequences for violating New Hampshire’s primary law are unclear, so it may be possible for state parties to run and fund their own primary contests on a separate date.
Nevada passed a bill in 2021 changing its nominating process from a convention to a primary. The bill also requires the primary to take place on the first Tuesday in February, bringing it in line with the DNC’s proposed calendar. Depending on when Iowa and New Hampshire schedule their primaries, this calendar can work with the RNC’s schedule. It is also possible that the Republican state party could opt out of the state-funded primary election and hold a caucus on a date of their choosing instead.
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R), who sets primary dates in the state, said he did not intend to change Georgia’s primary date to comply with the DNC calendar. He said, “This type of move would need to be equitable, take place on the same day, and ensure that no one loses delegates,” and expressed openness to an early Georgia primary in 2028.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) recently signed a bill moving the state’s presidential primary to the date set by the DNC. But, newly passed state laws don’t take effect until 90 days after a legislative session ends. For the law to take effect in time for the 2024 primaries, the state legislature would have to adjourn early. Republicans would not be permitted to hold a primary on a separate date, though they could hold a party-sponsored caucus or convention on a separate date.
Georgia and New Hampshire, the only two states in the DNC’s new early primary line-up that haven’t yet demonstrated they can move their primaries, have until June 2023 to show the DNC they can change their primary dates and receive an early primary waiver.
As of February 6, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.34, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.30, and former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.26. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.
The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading the pack at $0.56. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.17.
Trump currently leads in the Republican presidential primary market at $0.37, followed by DeSantis at $0.36. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (R) is at $0.11. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading in the coming months. The platform was initially set to shut down on February 15, but the CFTC action is currently under injunction as a court considers PredictIt’s appeal to the decision.
The 2024 Republican presidential primary may be about to gain its second noteworthy candidate, according to The Post and Courier. The paper reported that former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R) plans to announce her campaign on February 15. She’d be joining former President Donald Trump (R), who announced his campaign in November.
On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden (D) has not yet announced whether he intends to run for a second term.
By February 1, 2019, the equivalent point in the 2020 campaign, ten noteworthy candidates had announced their campaigns: nine Democrats and one Republican, Trump. They were:
February 1, 2019: Cory Booker (D)
January 28, 2019: Marianne Williamson (D)
January 23, 2019: Pete Buttigieg (D)
January 21, 2019: Kamala Harris (D)
January 15, 2019: Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
January 12, 2019: Julián Castro (D)
January 11, 2019: Tulsi Gabbard (D)
November 6, 2017: Andrew Yang (D)
August 10, 2017: John Delaney (D)
January 20, 2017: Donald Trump (R)
Additionally on February 1, 2019, Politico reported that Kamala Harris (D), Biden, and Booker were courting the Congressional Black Caucus for an endorsement. Trump also filed his first campaign finance report of 2019, showing he had $19.3 million in his campaign account.
At this point in the 2016 cycle, no noteworthy candidates had announced campaigns for the presidency yet. The race was still getting media coverage though, including an interview with Mike Pence (R) published by Indianapolis Monthly on February 1, 2015, where the outlet asked him whether he’d enter the race. Pence never did enter as a presidential candidate, but he became Trump’s running mate in July 2016.
