Trump leads 2024 Republican presidential primary polling and PredictIt market

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As of May 23, 2023, former President Donald Trump (R) leads in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.

Trump’s polling average currently stands at 56%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 19%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.57, and DeSantis’ share price is $0.34. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election took place today. In contrast, a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.

President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 35% polling average, with no other candidates polling at or above 10%, and a $0.73 PredictIt share price. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.12.

Trump and Biden are the only candidates of this group to have officially announced their presidential campaigns.

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