Trump leads in 2024 Republican presidential primary RealClearPolitics polling average and PredictIt market

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As of June 26, 2023, former President Donald Trump (R) holds a lead in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.

Trump’s polling average currently stands at 52%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) at 22%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.55, and DeSantis’ share price is $0.30. No other candidate has a share price above $0.10. 

A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election were held today, while a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.

President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 35% polling average, with no other candidates polling above 10%, and a $0.68 PredictIt share price. Two other candidates have a share price above $0.10. California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) stands at $0.19, and environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stands at $0.11. Kennedy was added to PredictIt’s tracking on June 22.

Newsom is the only candidate of those mentioned above to have not announced a 2024 presidential campaign.

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