Trump holds the lead in Republican presidential primary polling averages and PredictIt market

As of July 18, 2023, former President Donald Trump (R) held the lead in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.

Trump’s polling average stood at 54%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 20%. No other candidate had more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price was $0.60. Two other candidates had a share price at or above $0.10. DeSantis’ share price was $0.19, and Vivek Ramaswamy had a share price of $0.11.

A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election were held today, while a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.

President Joe Biden (D) led both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden had a 64% polling average, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (15%) being the only other candidate polling at or above 10%. Biden had a $0.69 PredictIt share price. Two other candidates had a share price at or above $0.10. California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) stood at $0.20, and environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was $0.12.

Newsom is the only candidate of those mentioned above to have not announced a 2024 presidential campaign.

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