Biden, Trump lead respective presidential primary polling averages and PredictIt markets

As of July 24, 2023, former President Donald Trump (R) leads in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.

Trump’s polling average stands at 52%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 18%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.57, DeSantis’ share price is $0.20, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s share price is at $0.13. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election were held today, while a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.

President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 35% polling average, with no other candidates polling at or above 10%, and a $0.67 PredictIt share price. Two other candidates have a share price at or above $0.10. California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) stands at $0.22, and environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stands at $0.10.

Newsom is the only candidate of those mentioned above to have not announced a 2024 presidential campaign.

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