As of Sept. 5, 2023, former President Donald Trump (R) leads in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.
Trump’s polling average currently stands at 53%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 15%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.64, DeSantis’ share price is $0.15, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s (R) share price is $0.13, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s share price is $0.11. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election were held today, while a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.
President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 66% polling average, followed by lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 13%. No other candidate is polling at or above 10%. Biden has a $0.68 PredictIt share price. One other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) stands at $0.16.
Newsom is the only candidate of those mentioned above to have not announced a 2024 presidential campaign.