As of Sept. 12, 2023, former President Donald Trump (R) leads RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.
Trump’s polling average currently stands at 54%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 13%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.66, DeSantis’ share price is $0.14, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s (R) share price is $0.11, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s share price is $0.10. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election were held today. In contrast, a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.
President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 67% polling average, followed by lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 12%. No other candidate is polling at or above 10%. Biden has a $0.70 PredictIt share price. One other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) stands at $0.15.
Newsom is the only candidate of those mentioned above to have not announced a 2024 presidential campaign.