November elections will determine control of Virginia House

Republicans currently hold a 49-46 majority in the Virginia House, and the Nov. 7, 2023, election will determine control of the state legislature and Virginia’s trifecta status. Virginia’s trifecta status changed from Democratic to divided as a result of the 2021 elections. Governor Glenn Youngkin (R) was elected to succeed term-limited incumbent Ralph Northam (D). Democrats also lost control of the Virginia House. If Republicans maintain control of the House and win the Senate, Virginia would become a Republican trifecta. If Democrats win control of the House or maintain control of the Senate, Virginia would remain a divided government.

Thirty-two incumbents did not file for re-election in 2023. This was the largest number of retirements since 2011, and a 244% increase from the average of 9.3 retirements per cycle between 2011 and 2021.

Ballotpedia identified seven battleground elections in the chamber. Republicans currently represent four and Democrats represent three. Incumbents are running in two of these races, while the other five are in open districts, meaning no incumbents are running.

Three of the battlegrounds are rated as both a Toss-Up (by CNalysis) and Competitive (by the Virginia Public Access Project).

Virginia House of Delegates District 21

Joshua Thomas (D) is running against John Stirrup (R). This district is open. Incumbent Kelly Convirs-Fowler (D) was redistricted into District 96.

Writing for The Washington Post, Laura Vozzella said, “The open 21st District seat that Stirrup — whom Youngkin endorsed in the primary — and Thomas are vying for … went blue in the governor’s race in 2017 but flipped red for Youngkin four years later.”

Thomas lists housing, education, women’s rights, and transportation as his priorities. He said he is “committed to keeping the region more affordable than the rest of NOVA and maintaining the unique and diverse rural/suburban character of our community that makes the opportunity of the American Dream real for all of us.”

Stirrup lists safe communities, lower cost of living, stronger schools, and protecting the rural crescent as his priorities. He said he would “work with Governor Youngkin to deliver for Virginians – lowering taxes on families and businesses, protecting parental rights and investing in law enforcement.”

Virginia House of Delegates District 82

Incumbent Kim Taylor (R) is running against Kimberly Adams (D).

Writing for the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Dave Ress said, “Democrats are hoping to flip District 82, the Petersburg-area district now represented by Del. Kim Taylor, R-Dinwiddie.” The district voted 50.5% Democratic and 49.4% Republican in the 2022 congressional midterms. In 2021, 50.6% of voters voted for Youngkin and 48.5% voted for Terry McAuliffe (D) in the gubernatorial election.

Taylor lists advancing agriculture, rural broadband access, healthcare, education, small businesses, and law enforcement as her priorities. She said, “Since becoming your Delegate, I’ve worked hard to prioritize our children’s education, lower taxes, & put VA families first.”

Adams said, “I’m running … to … bring opportunities and good-paying jobs to our district. … As an accountant and an auditor, I’ve dedicated my career to cutting wasteful spending and fighting against fraud and abuse. … One of my first priorities will be to fully fund our schools to get repairs done in our buildings and make sure our teachers are being paid what they’re worth.”

Virginia House of Delegates District 97

Incumbent Karen Greenhalgh (R) is running against Michael Feggans (D).

Writing for Radio IQ, Michael Pope said, “Of the dozen races where Republicans are targeting Democrats … only one so far is a race where Republicans have raised the issue of abortion rights — House District 97 in Virginia Beach. The House Republican Caucus says … Feggans supports ‘elective abortion for any reason until the moment of birth.’” Feggans denied the claim and said he supported Virginia’s current abortion law. Greenhalgh said she supported a 15-week abortion ban.

Learn more about the Virginia House elections and the battleground elections Ballotpedia identified using the link below.

Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2023