Welcome to the Tuesday, May 14, 2024, Brew.
By: Ethan Rice
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Voting trends in the country’s richest and poorest counties
- Georgia governor signs legislation changing state election laws
- A look at today’s Democratic mayoral primary in Baltimore, Maryland
Voting trends in the country’s richest and poorest counties
Ballotpedia reviewed voting patterns from 2016-2022 of the 50 richest and 50 poorest counties in the United States to look at how partisanship and voter participation relate to county income. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates Program’s 2021 estimates of household income, we found:
- In the last three presidential elections, a majority of both the richest and poorest counties voted for Democratic candidates.
- Richer counties averaged 10% higher voter turnout than poorer counties in that same time period.
- The majority of the richest counties were in Democratic trifecta states, while the majority of the poorest counties were in Republican trifectas.
The 50 richest counties each had a median household income of more than $105,000 and an average population of 492,000. The majority (30) were in states with a Democratic trifecta, nine were in states with a Republican trifecta, and 11 were in states with a divided government.
The 50 poorest counties each had a median household income of less than $35,000 and an average population of 13,000. The majority (33) were in states with a Republican trifecta, and 17 were in states with a divided government. None of the 50 poorest counties were in states with a Democratic trifecta.
More counties in both the richest and poorest 50 voted Democratic in recent presidential elections. Ballotpedia identified the presidential voting patterns for each of these counties for the last three presidential elections (2012, 2016, and 2020).
Among the 50 richest counties:
- 24 voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012, Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016, and Joe Biden (D) in 2020.
- 20 voted for Mitt Romney (R) in 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016 and 2020.
- Three voted for Romney in 2012, Clinton in 2016, and Biden in 2020.
- Two voted for Romney in 2012, Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020.
- One voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016 and 2020.
Among the 50 poorest counties:
- 33 voted for Obama in 2012, Clinton in 2016, and Biden in 2020.
- 18 voted for Romney in 2012, and Trump in 2016 and 2020.
- One voted for Obama in 2012, and Trump in 2016 and 2020.
On average, more people voted in riicher counties than poorer counties. Because how many people voted as a percentage of registered voters is not measured nationally, we analyzed the number of votes cast in state and federal elections from 2016-2022 as a percentage of county population.
The average voter participation in the 50 richest counties was 46.34%. Chester County, Pennsylvania, had the highest participation, at 67.0%, and Santa Clara, California, had the lowest, at 33.3%.
Average voter participation in the 50 poorest counties was 36.26%. The county with the highest participation was Greene County, Alabama, with 50.3%. The lowest was Starr County, Texas, with 18.8%.
To see our full analysis of how partisanship and voter participation relate to county income, click here.
Georgia governor signs legislation changing state election laws
Since the beginning of May, states have enacted nearly 50 election-related bills. One of the most active states during this time was Georgia, with Gov. Brian Kemp (R) signing 19 election-related bills on May 6, including several bills that have garnered national attention for how they change the state’s voting laws.
One of the bills was SB189. The bill passed the Georgia House of Representatives on March 26. The omnibus election bill changes several areas of election law, including removing the secretary of state from the state election board, allowing election officials to remove a voter from registration rolls up to 45 days before an election, and requiring all absentee ballots to be counted by one hour after the close of polls on election day. For a complete summary of the bill, click here to view our legislation tracker write-up. Two Democrats joined all voting Republicans to pass the bill 101-73. It then passed the Georgia Senate along party lines on March 29.
The bill’s supporters say it will result in more accurate and transparent elections. One of the bill’s sponsors, Rep. John LaHood (R), said, “I see this as being pro-America, pro-accuracy, pro-transparency and pro-election integrity.” The bill’s critics say it will disenfranchise eligible voters and that portions of the bill directly conflict with the National Voter Registration Act, which prohibits the removal of voters from registration rolls within 90 days of an election. ACLU of Georgia Executive Director Andrea Young said, “Access to the ballot is at the heart of our democracy. This election ‘Frankenbill’ violates the National Voter Registration Act. We are committed to protecting Georgia voters. If the governor signs this bill, we will see him in court.”
Other notable legislation Gov. Kemp signed on May 6 includes HB1207 and HB974. HB1207 requires all election officials and poll workers to be U.S. citizens, grants poll watchers access to polling places, advance voting locations, tabulation centers, and absentee ballot processing locations, and stipulates that they are entitled to observe any activity that is conducted at these locations. The bill passed the Senate along party lines on March 26 and then passed the lower chamber on March 28, with one Democrat joining the House’s Republicans to send the bill to the governor for signature.
HB 974 requires watermarks on absentee ballots, establishes a pilot program to scan and publicly post images of all voted ballots on the secretary of state’s website and expands post-election risk-limiting audit requirements. According to the bill text, these risk-limiting audits will use “statistical methods and [are] designed to limit to acceptable levels the risk of certifying a preliminary election outcome that constitutes an incorrect outcome.” HB974 received more bipartisan support than the other two bills. On March 26, 14 Democrats joined Republicans in the Senate to pass the bill 47-6. On March 28, it passed the lower chamber 136-29, with 42 Democrats joining Republicans to advance the bill.
Gov. Kemp also signed more than 10 other election bills on May 6 that change election procedures in specific municipalities or jurisdictions in the state. For a complete list of election-related bills adopted in Georgia this year, click here.
Thirty-five states have passed 230 election administration bills in 2024. The states that have passed the most are Georgia (33) and Tennessee (29), both of which have Republican trifectas, followed by Virginia (25), which has a divided government. The states with Democratic trifectas that have passed the most bills are Maryland (10) and Massachusetts (8), followed by New Jersey (4) and Washington (4).
A look at today’s Democratic mayoral primary in Baltimore, Maryland
Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections — the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.
Today, we’re looking at the Democratic mayoral primary in Baltimore, Maryland. Thirteen candidates are running in the May 14 primary. Three lead in fundraising and local media attention: incumbent Brandon Scott (D), former mayor Sheila Dixon (D), and Bob Wallace (D).
Scott was first elected in 2020 and is running on his record, saying, “We have been able to decrease crime by doing it the right way.” Scott said he offers “a choice to make about whether we will continue on the sustainable path forward, or if we will go back to the broken ways and failed leadership of the past.”
Dixon is a former mayor and city council member who resigned in 2010 as part of a plea deal following a corruption investigation. Dixon said she is running because Scott is mismanaging the city: “I look at city government today, and I don’t recognize it anymore. I see firsthand that it’s letting people down daily.” In 2020, Scott defeated Dixon 29.6%–27.5% in the Democratic primary.
Wallace is a businessman and author of books on wealth creation and entrepreneurship. Wallace said he is running because “today’s Baltimore presents challenges for our Black sons and daughters.” Wallace said he would create the position of city manager/chief ethics officer, pursue partnerships with businesses to attract $1 billion of investment and overhaul the city’s schools. In 2020, Wallace ran for mayor as an independent. Scott defeated him 70.5%–20.2%.
Local political observers say crime is a central issue for both the Scott and Dixon campaigns.
According to the Baltimore Sun’s Emily Opilo, Dixon is using the approach she used in 2020, with a focus on “Black voters, many of whom named crime as their top concern.” Dixon said her policies “led to 30-year record lows in crime and homicides.” Opilo said Scott’s challenge “is more complicated that [sic] lowering the homicide rate. The battle is also over the public perception of crime among city residents, some of whom find little solace in the city’s diminished homicide count.”
Also running in the primary are Wayne Baker (D), Wendy Bozel (D), Texas Brown (D), Kevin P. Harris (D), Wendell Hill-Freeman (D), Yolanda Pulley (D), Joseph Scott (D), Keith Scott (D), Thiru Vignarajah (D), and Yasaun Young (D).
The last Republican mayor of Baltimore was Theodore McKeldin (R) in 1967.