As of May 21, 2024, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential general election market shows President Joe Biden (D) at $0.47 and former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.50. The last time Trump led Biden in this market was March 21, when he held a $0.47 to $0.46 advantage. Biden led Trump from March 31 until May 14 when the candidates tied for the first time since March 22 at $0.49. Trump pulled ahead of Biden on May 16, $0.50 to $0.49, and has held an edge and a share price of $0.50 every day since.
No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.87. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
Trump leads the Republican presidential primary market at $0.92. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections.
On May 10, 2024, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) voted 3-2 to issue a rule proposal that would ban election betting markets. Previously, the commission announced it intended to rescind PredictIt’s no-action letter on August 4, 2022, with an effective date set for February 2023. On its website, PredictIt said that barring any changes in CFTC policy, it would halt trading on February 15, 2023. The CFTC reversed this decision in March 2023, allowing the platform to operate legally.
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