Welcome to the Friday, June 28, Brew.
By: Mercedes Yanora
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Montana campaign submits signatures for initiative to provide a constitutional right to abortion
- Intra-party divisions mark Washington’s gubernatorial top-two primary
- Did you know 39 states allow voters to recall certain local officials?
Montana campaign submits signatures for initiative to provide a constitutional right to abortion
Abortion-related ballot measures are now certified in five states: Colorado, Florida, Maryland, New York, and South Dakota. Additionally, signatures for abortion-related measures are pending verification in seven states: Arizona, Arkansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
Here’s a roundup of recent events:
Montana
Montanans for Securing Reproductive Rights is the most recent campaign to submit signatures. The campaign filed roughly 117,000 signatures on June 21—of which 60,359 valid signatures are required—for an initiative that would provide a state constitutional right to abortion. County clerks have until July 19 to verify the signatures and submit them to the secretary of state’s office.
The initiative states that “there is a right to make and carry out decisions about one’s own pregnancy, including the right to abortion.” The state would be permitted to regulate abortion after fetal viability, except “to protect the life or health of the pregnant patient.”
Abortion is currently legal in Montana until fetal viability. In Armstrong v. State (1999), the Montana Supreme Court held that Section 10 of Article II of the Montana Constitution provided women with a right to procreative autonomy, including an abortion before fetal viability. The section reads, “The right of individual privacy is essential to the well-being of a free society and shall not be infringed without the showing of a compelling state interest.”
Planned Parenthood Advocates of Montana, the ACLU of Montana, Forward Montana, and The Fairness Project support the initiative. The campaign said, “Now is the time to ensure power remains in the hands of the people of Montana, so everyone has the freedom to prevent, continue, or end a pregnancy should they choose.”
The initiative’s opponents include the Republican members of the legislature’s Law and Justice Interim Committee. State Sen. Keith Regier (R-3) said the initiative is “vague and takes away legal protection from women.”
In 2022, Montana voters rejected LR-131 52.55% to 47.45%. The measure, which the legislature put on the ballot, would have defined infants born alive at any stage of development as legal persons and required medical care to be provided to them if they were born after an induced labor, a cesarean section, an attempted abortion, or another method. In 2023, the legislature passed a similar law. Unlike the ballot measure, the bill had reduced penalties and did not require medical care if death was imminent.
In 2012, voters approved LR-120 70.55% to 29.45%. The measure, which the legislature put on the ballot, requires physicians to notify the parent or legal guardian of a pregnant woman under 16 years old at least 48 hours before performing an abortion.
New York
On June 18, a New York state appellate court restored the previously certified New York Equal Protection of Law Amendment to the ballot for Nov. 5. On May 7, state Supreme Court Justice Daniel J. Doyle ruled that the New York Legislature approved the amendment before getting a written opinion from the attorney general. The Supreme Court’s Appellate Division, Fourth Department overturned this ruling, saying that the plaintiffs should have filed their challenge through an Article 78 proceeding because the challenge related to the procedure by which the amendment was advanced to the ballot. Yet, the four-month window to do so had expired.
Where have abortion measures been on the ballot since Dobbs?
Following the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization U.S. Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, seven abortion-related measures appeared on the ballot.
In 2022, there were six ballot measures addressing abortion—the most on record for a single year. Voters approved measures in California, Michigan, and Vermont. Voters defeated measures in Kansas, Kentucky, and Montana. The most recent approved abortion-related ballot measure was Ohio Issue 1 in November 2023.
Looking beyond abortion-related measures
So far this year, 127 statewide ballot measures have been certified for the ballot in 36 states. An average of 123 measures were certified at this point between 2012 and 2022. An average of 157 statewide ballot measures were on the ballot in even-numbered years from 2012 to 2022.
Intra-party divisions mark Washington’s gubernatorial top-two primary
Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections—the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.
Today, we’re looking at the top-two primary for governor of Washington on Aug. 6. Twenty-eight candidates are running and Semi Bird (R), Bob Ferguson (D), Mark Mullet (D), and Dave Reichert (R) have received the most media attention and endorsements. The top-two vote getters will advance to the general election on Nov. 5.
Incumbent Jay Inslee (D) is not running for re-election.
This is one of 11 gubernatorial elections taking place this year. Eight of 11 governors are not running for re-election. There are currently 27 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors. Click here for an overview of all 11 gubernatorial elections taking place in 2024.
Political commentators have identified two themes in the primary. The first is intra-party, with Ferguson, the state attorney general, billed as the Democratic establishment candidate and Mullet, a state senator, as the self-described “common sense alternative who can attract a winning bloc of moderate and independent voters.”
Inslee has endorsed Ferguson. In 2020, Inslee had endorsed Ingrid Anderson (D), Mullet’s opponent in his last senatorial race. Mullet said Inslee and the Democratic majority had overreached on taxes. He also voted against a Democratic-led payroll tax for long-term care and a capital gains tax.
For the Republicans, divisions were present during the state Republican Party convention in April 2024. Party leaders initially announced they would not endorse a candidate for governor. Bird’s supporters protested the move and delegates overturned the initial decision to not endorse a candidate. Reichert withdrew his name from consideration and the state party endorsed Bird.
According to Politico, Reichert, former representative of Washington’s 8th Congressional District, was ranked as one of the most bipartisan members during his time in the U.S. House. He at times voted against his party, for example, voting to repeal “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” in the military and voting against repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act.
Running to the right of Reichert is Bird. Bird was elected to the Richland School District school board in 2021 as part of a conservative slate of candidates who campaigned against mask mandates, COVID vaccines, and alleged teaching of critical race theory. Voters recalled Bird and two others from the school board in 2023 because they allegedly violated the Open Public Meetings Act, district policies, procedures, and code of ethics, and voted to make masks optional while a statewide mask requirement was in place. Click here to learn more.
On an inter-party level, Democrats have claimed Reichert would limit access to abortion in Washington. Reichert said he would uphold the state’s abortion law. Democrats have also tried to link Reichert with former President Donald Trump (R). Reichert has not publicly stated whether he would endorse or vote for Trump.
Both Reichert and Bird have emphasized “a shift away from tax increases and climate regulations” and called for “get-tough approaches on homeless encampments, drugs and crime.”
A Republican last won election as Washington’s governor in 1980. As of June 18, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rated the general election Lean Democratic, while Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated it Likely Democratic. In 2020, 2016, and 2012, Inslee won election against Republican candidates with victory margins of 13.5%, 8.75%, and 3.1%, respectively.
Twenty-four other candidates are also running in the primary.
Did you know 39 states allow voters to recall certain local officials?
Recall is a process by which citizens may remove elected officials from their positions before the end of their term. In 19 states, voters can also initiate recalls against some state officials.
Ballotpedia covers all recall elections. Since January, 38 elected officials have been removed from office through the recall process. This is the most officials removed from office by mid-year since Ballotpedia began tracking this data in 2014.
Click here to learn more about recall elections. We’ll be back next week with another edition of Ballotpedia’s Did You Know?