Welcome to the Wednesday, July 24, 2024 Brew.
By: Ethan Sorell
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- A closer look at Alaska’s two contested top-four state legislative primaries in 2024
- Three current Missouri officeholders face off in the Republican gubernatorial primary
- Upcoming voter participation deadlines
A closer look at Alaska’s two contested top-four state legislative primaries in 2024
In last Thursday’s Brew, we looked at how an Idaho ballot initiative that would establish top-four primaries and ranked-choice voting for general elections compares to similar measures nationwide and which states currently use similar voting systems. Today, let’s look at Alaska, where voters approved a 2020 ballot measure establishing a top-four primary and ranked-choice voting. Under the system, the top four vote-getters in the primary advance to the general election regardless of partisan affiliation. We’ll focus on the competitiveness of the state’s legislative elections since the new system was created.
The number of contested state legislative primaries–where more than one candidate is running for the nomination–fell in 2022 and 2024 after it implemented the new system.
Fifty seats in the Alaska Legislature, including all 40 House seats and 10 Senate seats, are up for election this year.
- There are 116 candidates running, including 32 Democrats, 60 Republicans, 12 minor-party candidates, and 12 independent or non-partisan candidates. Between 2010 and 2022, an average of 117.2 candidates ran per year.
- This year, 43 incumbents are running for re-election, and only one is contested in the primary. That’s 2.3% of all incumbents running for re-election. No incumbents had contested primaries in 2020.
- Before Alaska started holding top-four state legislative primaries, an average of 25.1% of incumbents seeking re-election were contested each year from 2010 to 2022.
- Seven incumbents did not run for re-election this year: one Democrat, five Republicans, and one independent. An average of 8.7 incumbents retired between 2010 and 2022.
Alaska has a divided government. While Republicans hold numerical majorities in both chambers of the state legislature, both the House and the Senate are controlled by multipartisan governing coalitions.
An initiative to repeal top-four voting qualified for the Nov. 5 ballot. Currently, three states use a top-two primary system: California, Nebraska, and Washington.
Three current Missouri officeholders face off in the Republican gubernatorial primary
Throughout the year, we’re bringing you coverage of the most compelling elections—the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.
Today, we’re looking at the Aug. 6 Republican primary for Governor of Missouri. Nine candidates are running. Three lead in polling and media attention: Jay Ashcroft (R), Bill Eigel (R), and Mike Kehoe (R).
Why we’re watching this race
- Missouri is one of 37 states with gubernatorial term limits. Incumbent Gov. Mike Parson (R) could not run for re-election due to term limits, leaving the office open. Republicans have controlled the governorship since 2000, and The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the general election as Safe or Solid Republican.
- Jay Ashcroft is the Missouri Secretary of State.
- Bill Eigel is a Missouri Senator.
- Mike Kehoe is the Lieutenant Governor of Missouri and former Missouri Senator.
Ashcroft, Eigel, and Kehoe participated in a February candidate forum.
- According to St. Louis Public Radio’s Jason Rosen, while Kehoe avoided directly criticizing the other candidates, Eigel criticized both Kehoe and Ashcroft, saying, “Don’t be afraid of the message that we can’t take our state back because I don’t have enough lobbyist money or I don’t have the right last name from my dad,” referring to Ashcroft, who is the son of Frmr. Gov. John Ashcroft. Ashcroft responded by saying, “Are we going to pick words, or we’re going to pick actions?”
Ashcroft has highlighted his experience as Missouri Secretary of State throughout his campaign.
- Ashcroft said, “I ran for Secretary of State in 2016 on an election integrity platform and when you elected me, I went to work. We instituted voter ID, banned ballot drop boxes and private funding of election operations, and blocked the Biden Administration from sending armed federal agents to monitor our elections.”
- Ashcroft said, “It’s past time we eliminate the state income tax. Nine other states have done it. It’s time we quit subsidizing those who don’t work and tax those that do.”
- Ashcroft said, “As governor, I will make sure that we hire 1,000 new officers, dispatchers, deputies, and other law enforcement personnel to make sure we have the people we need to keep ourselves and our communities safe.”
Bill Eigel said, “As a senator, I’ve been the same person I promised to be. I was a founding member of the Conservative Caucus and the Missouri Freedom Caucus.”
Eigel completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection Survey. In it, Eigel said:
- “When Obamacare was shoved down the throat of my small business, our premiums tripled and our coverage was worse. That caused me to get involved and eventually run for state senate in 2016. As a senator, I’ve been the same person I promised to be. I was a founding member of the Conservative Caucus and the Missouri Freedom Caucus.”
- “I am the only candidate with a plan to detain and deport every single one of the estimated 77,000 illegal aliens already in Missouri…My first day as governor, I will declare an invasion under Article IV of the Missouri Constitution. This will allow me to mobilize the Highway Patrol, National Guard, and every Sheriff in this state; and we’re going to detain and deport the illegals already in Missouri.”
- “I am the only candidate who wants to ban all foreign countries from owning any Missouri land. Missouri ought to be owned by Missourians, or at least Americans. In the Missouri Senate, I filed a constitutional amendment to ban all foreign ownership of Missouri land and to take back the land already in foreign hands.”
Incumbent Gov. Mike Parson and more than 20 unions and organizations have endorsed Mike Kehoe.
- Kehoe’s campaign website highlights his small business policies as Missouri Lieutenant Governor. It says, “As Lieutenant Governor, Mike is working to highlight Missouri businesses and manufacturers and is working to further grow new jobs. As a member of the Tourism Commission, he tirelessly works to promote Missouri’s third largest industry.”
- Kehoe’s campaign website says, “As Lieutenant Governor, Mike also serves as the official advocate for Missouri seniors, standing up for seniors’ rights and interests. He works closely with veterans’ organizations and legislators to see that our state government keeps their promises to the men and women who have served our country.”
- Kehoe said his priorities as governor would be to “provide every child with a world class education, expand workforce development to help every Missourian prepare and learn new job skills so they can realize their potential, and cut red tape and burdensome regulations to attract high paying jobs to Missouri.”
Darren Grant (R), Jeremy Gundel (R), Darrell Leon McClanahan III (R), Robert Olson (R), Amber Thomsen (R), and Chris Wright (R) are also running in the Republican primary.
Upcoming voter participation deadlines
With the election season well underway, we are taking a look at the important deadlines voters need to be aware of over the next two weeks to take part in their state’s primary election.
Eleven states have important voter participation deadlines in the next two weeks. Voter participation deadlines include voter registration deadlines, early voting end dates, and deadlines to request and return absentee/mail-in ballots.
The following states have voter participation deadlines between July 24 and Aug. 6:
- Arizona: Early voting ends July 26. Absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline July 30.
- Connecticut: Voter registration deadline (mail/online) July 26.
- Hawaii: Voter registration deadline (mail) July 31.
- Kansas: Absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline July 30. Early voting ends Aug. 5. Absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline (postmarked) Aug. 6.
- Michigan: Absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline (mail/online) Aug. 2. Early voting ends Aug. 4. Absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline (in person) Aug. 5. Voter registration deadline (in person) Aug. 6. Absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline Aug. 6.
- Missouri: Absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline (mail) July 24. Absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline (in person) Aug. 5. Early voting ends Aug. 5. Absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline Aug. 6.
- Oklahoma (primary runoff): Voter registration deadline Aug. 2.
- Tennessee: Absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline July 25. Early voting ends July 27. Absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline Aug. 1.
- Washington: Voter registration deadline (mail/online) July 29. Voter registration deadline (in person) Aug. 6. Absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline (postmarked) Aug. 6.
- Wisconsin: Voter registration deadline (mail/online) July 24.
- Wyoming: Voter registration deadline (mail) Aug. 5.
Looking ahead
We’ll bring you all the voter participation information you need for the 2024 election cycle, so stay tuned!Keep reading