Number of contested U.S. House incumbents ^, number of contested legislative primaries ᘁ

By

Ballotpedia staff

Welcome to the Monday, August 5, Brew. 

By: Briana Ryan

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. So far this year—second-highest percentage of U.S. House incumbents facing primaries, second-lowest percentage of state legislative open seats
  2. Rematch between Omar and Samuels in the Democratic primary for Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District on Aug. 13
  3. Two hundred eighty-three candidates are running in state legislative races in Washington this year—the fewest since 2014

So far this year—second-highest percentage of U.S. House incumbents facing primaries, second-lowest percentage of state legislative open seats

Ballotpedia’s 2024 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative, state executive, and congressional elections taking place this year. Today, we’ll look at two notable trends: one in the U.S. House and the other at the state legislative level.

Looking at the 47 states where candidate filing deadlines have passed, an average of 51.0% of U.S. House incumbents faced contested primaries from 2014 to 2024.

So far, 2024 has the second-highest percentage of incumbents facing a primary challenger (52.3%) since Ballotpedia began collecting data in 2014. In raw numbers, that’s 190 out of 363 incumbents. The highest percentage was in 2022, following redistricting, where 59.8% of incumbents faced a contested primary. In raw numbers, that was 228 out of 381 incumbents.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley, incumbents often face primary challengers because of ideological differences. Skelley said those types of challenges also come with the involvement of outside organizations: “The participation of outside organizations in primaries means these contests sometimes become proxy battles for those groups to move the political needle in their preferred direction, with opposing organizations backing different primary candidates to gain the upper hand in national ideological or issue-based battles.

According to Axios’ Andrew Solender, incumbents in the U.S. House have faced primary challengers this year over a number of issues :“Pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian Democrats, the Freedom Caucus, the GOP establishment and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) have all tried to knock off incumbents, with little success.”

California (45), Texas (19), and Florida (15) have the highest number of contested incumbents.

  • In Texas, 2024 is tied for the highest number of contested incumbents with 2022 and 2016. 
  • California and Florida both have their second-highest number of contested incumbents this year, with California having its most in 2022 with 47 and Florida in 2022 with 17. 
  • Alabama has its highest number of contested incumbents in the last ten years this year with six. 

Moving onto the state legislative level, an average of 18.7% of legislative seats were open from 2010 to 2024, meaning an incumbent did not run for re-election in those races.

So far, 2024 has the second-lowest percentage of open seats (16.2%) since Ballotpedia began collecting data in 2010. In raw numbers, that’s 848 out of 5,227 seats. The lowest percentage was in 2020 where 14.9% of seats were open. In raw numbers, that was 876 out of 5,875 seats. 

Six states—Connecticut (4), Idaho (6), Illinois (6), Michigan (8), New York (17), and Pennsylvania (17)—all have their lowest number of open seats since 2010.

  • Of those states, Michigan has the biggest percentage difference when compared to 2022. In 2022, 66 state legislative seats were open. This year’s eight open seats represents an 88% decrease.
  • Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, New York, and Pennsylvania each have decreases of 87%, 83%, 73%, 32%, and 59%, respectively. 

Be sure to check back for a full Daily Brew report on state legislative, state executive, and congressional elections taking place in 2024 later this summer!

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Rematch to take place between Omar and Samuels on Aug. 13 in the Democratic primary for Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District

Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections—the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.

Today, we’re looking at the Aug. 13 Democratic primary for Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District between incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar (D), Don Samuels (D), Abena McKenzie (D), and Nate Schluter (D). Omar and Samuels lead in fundraising and media attention.

In the 2022 Democratic primary, Omar defeated Samuels 50.3% to 48.2% in a field of five candidates. According to the StarTribune’s Ryan Faircloth, “The upcoming rematch between Omar and Samuels is expected to be one of the most closely watched Democratic primary elections in the country. Omar and Samuels have developed a heated rivalry since their close first race.”

Samuels said, “If there’s one virtue that Omar has is that she is consistent. She is consistently divisive and inappropriate. She’s consistently that way personally, locally, nationally and internationally.” Omar said, “Tone-policing women, especially women of color, has been a tactic that has been used to attack us. And I believe that it is important for me to be decisive, to lead with integrity, to have clarity, to be accountable to my constituents, to be transparent and to be able to communicate with my constituents in a way that I feel is necessary.”

Omar’s experience and platform

Omar was first elected to Congress in 2018. In the 2022 general election, Omar defeated Cicely Davis (R) 74.3% to 24.5%. She also represented District 60B in the Minnesota House of Representatives from 2017 to 2019.

Omar is running on her record, saying, “As a leader of the House Budget Committee and Progressive Caucus, I’ve continued to fight for the progressive values Minnesotans sent me to advocate for—whether it’s fighting to codify Roe v. Wade into law, addressing the opioid crisis or fighting for an assault weapons ban.”

Samuels’ experience and platform

Samuels served on the Minneapolis Public Schools Board of Education from 2014 to 2018 and the Minneapolis City Council from 2003 to 2014. His professional experience includes working as a designer in the toy industry for 30 years.

Samuels said threats to democracy, public safety, and foreign policy were the three themes of his campaign. Samuels said, “In America today, failed policy choices deprive far too many of the opportunity to succeed. Too many of our neighbors can’t afford housing, healthcare, or a quality education. Our working-class communities are plagued by gun violence and lack the needed investment that spurs good-paying, stable employment.”

Campaign finance

As of June 30, Omar raised $6.5 million, and Samuels raised $1.2 million. Omar is outspending Samuels nearly 5 to 1. Looking back at the previous match-up between the two, based on Dec. 31, 2022, financial reporting, Omar raised $3.1 million, and Samuels raised $1.4 million.

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Two hundred eighty-three candidates are running in state legislative races in Washington this year—the fewest since 2014

Continuing our coverage of statewide primaries, today we dive into elections in Washington. The state is holding primaries for congressional, state executive, and state legislative elections on Aug. 6.

For congressional and state-level elections, Washington uses a top-two primary system in which all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two vote-getters move on to the general election. 

Why it matters at the national level

In the U.S. Senate, Democrats currently have a majority. There are 47 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and four independents. Two independents caucus with the Democratic Party, and two others count towards the Democratic majority for committee purposes. Thirty-four of 100 seats are up for election, including one special election. Of the seats up for election in 2024, Democrats hold 19, Republicans hold 11, and independents hold four.

In the U.S. House, Republicans currently have a 220-212 majority with three vacancies. Wahington’s U.S. House delegation includes eight Democrats and two Republicans. We’re following two Washington U.S. House primaries as battleground primaries:

U.S. Senate

Eleven candidates, including incumbent Sen. Maria Cantwell, are in the U.S. Senate primary. Cantwell—who was first elected in 2000—and Raul Garcia have raised the most money.

U.S. House

Sixty-two candidates are running for Washington’s 10 U.S. House districts, including 26 Democrats, 25 Republicans, three independents, and eight minor-party candidates.

  • The 5th and 6th Congressional Districts are open this year, the most since 2014. Incumbent Reps. Cathy McMorris Rogers (R-05) and Derek Kilmer (D-06) are not running for re-election.
  • All 10 primaries are contested this year. Eight incumbents—seven Democrats and one Republican—are in contested primaries this year.
  • Eleven candidates—five Democrats and six Republicans—are running for the open 5th Congressional District, the most candidates running for a district this year.

State executive offices

State Legislature

All 147 seats in the Washington Legislature—49 in the Senate and 98 in the House—are up for election this year. Washington is one of 17 states with a Democratic trifecta. The state became a Democratic trifecta in 2018 after Democrats gained control of the Senate in a 2017 special election. Democrats currently have a 29-20 majority in the Senate and a 58-40 majority in the House.

  • Two hundred eighty-three candidates are running for the Legislature this year. That’s the fewest since 2014 when 266 candidates ran.
  • Fifty-six candidates—30 Democrats and 26 Republicans—are running for the Senate. Two hundred twenty-seven candidates—109 Democrats, 102 Republicans, and 16 non-major party candidates—are running for the House.
  • Twenty-six incumbents—nine Democrats and 17 Republicans—are not running for re-election this year.
  • Forty-eight primaries are contested this year.
  • Twenty-four incumbents, or 24.7% of all incumbents, are facing primary challengers this year. That’s the fewest incumbents in contested primaries since 2014 when 23 incumbents faced primary challengers.

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