Welcome to the Monday, August 26, Brew.
By: Briana Ryan
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Wyoming had the highest percentage of legislative incumbents in contested primaries this year
- Thirteen new ballot measures certified in seven states
- Kamala Harris (D) leads presidential field in fundraising
Wyoming had the highest percentage of legislative incumbents in contested primaries this year
Of the 44 states holding legislative elections this year, Wyoming had the highest percentage of legislative incumbents in contested primaries.
This is also the first year since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010 that a state had over 65% of its incumbents in contested primaries. Of the 40 incumbents in contested primaries in the state’s Aug. 20 primaries, 13—all Republican members of the state House—were defeated. As of Aug. 22, two races featuring incumbents remained uncalled.
Wyoming Public Media’s Kamila Kudelska said primary challenges this year were between “moderate, or you could say ‘old school,’ Republicans against more Wyoming Freedom Caucus-like candidates.” Kudelska said many candidates decided to run because “Republicans in charge aren’t doing anything or they would just very bluntly say if they get elected they’re going to join the Freedom Caucus.”
Wyoming is one of 29 state legislatures where one party had a veto-proof majority in both chambers. A supermajority happens when one party’s majority is large enough to override a gubernatorial veto without any votes from the minority party. Wyoming is also one of 36 states that require a two-thirds majority in both chambers of the Legislature for a supermajority. Currently, the state has a 29-2 majority in the state Senate and a 57-5 majority in the state House.
Since 2010, the average number of legislative incumbents in contested primaries in Wyoming during even-numbered years has been higher than the nationwide average.
The other five states with the highest percentages of legislative incumbents in contested primaries this year include South Dakota (60.9%), Nebraska (50.0%), Idaho (49.5%), Arizona (45.7%), and California (45.5%). The only other year a state had a contested primary rate of at least 60% for legislative incumbents was 2022, when Idaho was at 60.8%.
Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Idaho—have Republican trifectas. California has a Democratic trifecta, and Arizona has a divided government. According to FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley, incumbents often face primary challengers because of ideological differences. Skelley said outside organizations can spur such primary challenges: “The participation of outside organizations in primaries means these contests sometimes become proxy battles for those groups to move the political needle in their preferred direction, with opposing organizations backing different primary candidates to gain the upper hand in national ideological or issue-based battles.”
Of the 4,848 incumbents running for re-election nationwide, 22% (or 1,050) are or were in contested primaries. This is roughly average compared to previous years, down from 27% in 2022 but higher or the same as the 20% and 22% in 2020 and 2018, respectively.
Below is a comparison of 2024 figures to those in 2020, the last time the same 44 states held elections.
- There are 369 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 17% of all Democratic incumbents who ran for re-election, a 25% decrease from 2020.
- There are 681 Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 26% of all Republican incumbents who ran for re-election, a 33% increase from 2020.
- The total number of incumbents in contested primaries—1,050—is higher than in 2020 (1,006), representing a 4% increase.
Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.
Fifteen new ballot measures certified in seven states
So far this year, 155 statewide ballot measures have been certified in 41 states. An average of 151 measures were certified at this point between 2012 and 2022. An average of 157 statewide measures were on the ballot in even-numbered years from 2012 to 2022.
Here’s an update on the ballot measure activity during the past two weeks.
Election officials certified 15 ballot measures in Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Utah:
- Arizona Proposition 139, Right to Abortion Initiative
- Arizona Proposition 140, Eliminate Partisan Primaries Initiative
- Colorado Parole Eligibility Initiative
- Colorado Property Tax Valuation Reduction Initiative
- Missouri Minimum Wage and Earned Paid Sick Time Initiative
- Missouri Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative
- Missouri Sports Betting Initiative
- Montana CI-128, Right to Abortion Initiative
- Montana C-126, Top-Four Primary Initiative
- Montana C-127, Majority Vote Required to Win Elections Initiative
- Nebraska Paid Sick Leave Initiative
- Nebraska Prohibit Abortions After the First Trimester Amendment
- Nebraska Right to Abortion Initiative
- North Dakota Initiated Measure 5, Marijuana Legalization Initiative
- Utah Legislative Alteration of Ballot Initiatives and Foreign Contributions Ban Amendment
Campaigns submitted signatures for 11 initiatives: one in Arkansas, four in Colorado, three in Nebraska, and one in Oklahoma.
- Arkansas Medical Marijuana Expansion Initiative
- Colorado Constitutional Right to School Choice Initiative
- Colorado Peace Officer Training and Support Fund Initiative
- Colorado Top-Four Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative
- Colorado Veterinary Professional Associate Initiative
- Nebraska Authorize State Treasurer to Administer Education Scholarship Program Referendum
- Nebraska Medical Marijuana Legalization Initiative
- Nebraska Medical Marijuana Regulation Initiative
- Oklahoma Minimum Wage Increase Initiative
The following chart shows the number of ballot measures certified each week of an even-numbered year.
Kamala Harris (D) leads presidential field in fundraising
As of July 31, the end of the most recent presidential campaign finance filing period, Vice President Kamala Harris (D) led the field of noteworthy candidates in fundraising with $501 million in cumulative receipts, followed by former President Donald Trump (R) with $269 million, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) with $58 million, Jill Stein (G) with $2 million, and Chase Oliver (L) with $268,981.
During a press conference on Aug. 23, Kennedy said was suspending his campaign. He also said his name would remain on the ballot in some states.
Harris took over the Biden-Harris principal campaign committee following President Joe Biden‘s (D) withdrawal from the presidential race on July 21. Looking at funds raised from July 1 to July 31, Harris raised $204 million, Trump raised $48 million, Kennedy raised $6 million, Stein raised $310,068, and Oliver raised $73,536.
Adjusting for inflation, Harris’ 2024 cumulative fundraising ($501 million) is greater than Biden’s fundraising at this point in the 2020 cycle ($355 million) and Hillary Clinton’s (D) fundraising at this point in the 2016 cycle ($373 million).
Trump’s 2024 cumulative fundraising as of July 31 ($269 million) is less than his cumulative fundraising at this point in 2020 ($448 million) and greater than his cumulative fundraising at this point in 2016 ($146 million).
Looking at each major party presidential candidate since 2008, former President Barack Obama‘s (D) 2008 presidential campaign had raised the most money at this point in the cycle, at $551 million, adjusting for inflation. Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign had the lowest fundraising at this point in the cycle since 2008.
