A closer look at Tuesday’s election results

By

Ballotpedia staff

Welcome to the Thursday, November 7, 2024, Brew. 

By: Lara Bonatesta

Good morning! As election results from Tuesday continue to come in, here’s an update on the landscape. Click here to read Wednesday’s Brew if you missed any of those results. 

The results in this email are current as of 7 p.m. EST.

Below, we’ll look at:

  • Presidential pivot counties, 2024 edition
  • More ballot measure results
  • Congress
  • Trifectas and triplexes
  • State legislatures
  • State executives
  • Mayors of the 100 largest cities

Presidential pivot counties

Media outlets declared Donald Trump (R) the winner of the 2024 presidential election. Vice President Kamala Harris (D) delivered her concession speech yesterday. Following Trump’s first election in 2016, Ballotpedia identified 206 pivot counties – whose voters backed Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, before backing Trump in 2016.

Here’s what we’ve learned so far about how those counties voted on Tuesday:

  • Trump won 183.
  • Harris won nine.
  • Fourteen are still processing votes and too close to call.

Trump has won 169 of the 206 pivot counties in all three of his presidential elections, after those counties backed Obama in 2008 and 2012. 

Harris won seven pivot counties that President Joe Biden (D) won in 2020, including five where she had a similar margin of victory to Biden. Biden won 14 pivot counties in 2020 that Harris did not win. Those counties voted for Trump in 2016, Biden 2020, and Trump in 2024. They are: Pueblo County, Colorado; Pinellas County, Florida; Saginaw County, Michigan; Blue Earth County, Minnesota; Nicollet County, Minnesota; Winona County, Minnesota; Blaine County, Montana; Gloucester County, New Jersey; Broome County, New York; Essex County, New York; Erie County, Pennsylvania; Northampton County, Pennsylvania; Ziebach County, South Dakota; and Sauk County, Wisconsin.

Trump’s average margin of victory in his 183 pivot county wins was 18.1 percentage points, and Harris’ average margin of victory in her nine pivot county wins was 8.7 percentage points. The 206 pivot counties’ average margin of victories were 12.3 percentage points for Obama in 2008, 8.2 for Obama in 2012, and 11.5 for Trump in 2016. 

Click here to learn more about pivot counties in the 2024 presidential election, and keep an eye out for more of our pivot county coverage in the coming weeks. 

Update on ballot measures

Here’s what’s new since the results we brought to you in yesterday’s edition of the Brew.

Ranked-choice voting

One area we did not touch on as much in Wednesday’s Brew was the issue of ranked-choice voting (RCV). Following Tuesday’s election, Missouri became the 11th state to ban RCV. Voters in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, and Oregon defeated ballot measures that would have established RCV. Nationally, there were $108.7 million in contributions supporting RCV and $17.6 million in contributions opposing RCV. Click here for a breakdown of campaign finance for RCV ballot measures.

  • In Alaska, the effort to repeal RCV through Ballot Measure 2 remains too close to call. As of publication time, Yes (which would repeal RCV) led No 51% to 49%.
  • In Arizona, voters rejected Proposition 133, which would have added the state’s requirement for partisan primaries to the state constitution. The vote was 58% No to 42% Yes. Voters also rejected Proposition 140, which would have required single primaries where all candidates compete simultaneously regardless of party affiliation. If both propositions would have passed, they would have imposed contradictory requirements on the state’s primary system. The vote was 59% No to 41% Yes.
  • In Colorado, voters rejected Proposition 131, which would have established top-four primaries and RCV for federal and state offices. The vote was 55% No to 45% Yes.
  • In Idaho, voters rejected Proposition 1, which would have established top-four primaries and RCV for federal, state, and certain local offices. The vote was 70% No to 30% Yes.
  • In Missouri, voters approved Amendment 7, which prohibits RCV and prohibits the state and local governments from allowing noncitizens to vote. The vote was 68% Yes to 32% No.
  • In Montana, voters rejected CI-126, which would have established top-four primaries for federal and state offices. The vote was 52% No to 48% Yes. Voters also rejected CI-127, which would have required the state to adopt an electoral system in which candidates for certain offices had to win a majority of the vote rather than a plurality in order to win the election. The vote was 61% No to 39% Yes.
  • In Nevada, voters rejected Question 3, which would have established top-five primaries and RCV for federal and state offices. The vote was 54% No to 46% Yes.
  • In Oregon, voters rejected Measure 117, which would have established RCV for federal and state offices. The vote was 60% No to 40% Yes.
  • In South Dakota, voters rejected Constitutional Amendment H, which would have established top-two primaries for federal, state, and certain local offices. The vote was 66% No to 34% Yes.

Abortion

Eleven abortion-related statewide ballot measures were on the ballot in 10 states. Ten of these measures would have established state constitutional rights to abortion, while one measure would have limited abortion after the first trimester. Voters approved seven of the 10 pro-choice ballot measures and approved the one pro-life ballot measure. Nationally, there were $256.5 million supporting ballot measures to establish a state constitutional right to abortion or opposing limiting abortion after the first trimester, and $41.9 million opposing a state constitutional right to abortion or supporting limiting abortion after the first trimester.  

  • In Arizona, voters approved Proposition 139, which creates a state constitutional right to abortion, among other provisions. The vote was 61.7% Yes to 38.2% No.
  • In Colorado, voters approved Amendment 79, which creates a state constitutional right to abortion and allows the use of public funds for abortion. The vote was 61.4% Yes to 38.6% No. 
  • In Florida, voters rejected Amendment 4, which would have added the following language to the Florida Constitution’s Declaration of Rights: “… no law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.” The amendment would not have changed the state legislature’s authority to enact a law requiring the parents of a minor to be notified if their child is seeking an abortion. The amendment needed a 60% Yes vote to be approved. The vote was 57.2% Yes to 42.9% No.
  • In Maryland, voters approved Question 1, which establishes a constitutional right to reproductive freedom, defined to include “the ability to make and effectuate decisions to prevent, continue, or end one’s own pregnancy.” The vote was 74.1% Yes to 25.9% No.
  • In Missouri, voters approved Amendment 3, which adds a fundamental right to reproductive freedom, defined to include abortion and “all matters relating to reproductive health care,” to the Missouri Constitution, among other provisions. The vote was 51.7% Yes to 48.3% No. 
  • In Montana, voters approved CI-128, which creates a state constitutional right “to make and carry out decisions about one’s own pregnancy, including the right to abortion,” and allow the state to regulate abortion after fetal viability, except when “medically indicated to protect the life or health of the pregnant patient.” The vote was 57.2% Yes to 42.8% No. 
  • In Nebraska, voters approved Initiative 434, which prohibits abortion after the first trimester, except in cases of medical emergencies or if the pregnancy is the result of sexual assault or incest. The vote was 55% Yes to 45% No.
  • In Nebraska, voters rejected Initiative 439, which would have established a state constitution right to abortion until fetal viability. The vote was 51.3% No to 48.7% Yes. 
  • In New York, voters approved Proposal 1, which adds language to the New York Bill of Rights to provide that people cannot be denied rights based on their “ethnicity, national origin, age, and disability” or “sex, including sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare and autonomy.” The vote was 61.5% Yes to 38.5% No.
  • In Nevada, voters approved Question 6, which establishes a state constitutional right to abortion and allows the state to regulate abortion after fetal viability, except where medically indicated to “protect the life or health of the pregnant patient.” The vote was 63.2% Yes to 36.8% No. 
  • In South Dakota, voters rejected Question 6, which would have established a state constitutional right to abortion in South Dakota, using a trimester framework for regulation. The vote was 59.3% No to 40.7% Yes. 

Education

  • In Colorado, voters defeated Amendment 80 which said that “each K-12 child has the right to school choice”. Amendment 80 needed to receive a 55% vote to be approved. The vote was 52% No to 48% Yes. 
  • In Nebraska, voters approved Referendum 435, which repealed the state law providing for an education scholarship program for students to attend accredited private schools. The vote to repeal won 57% to 43%.

Marijua​na and psychedelics

  • In North Dakota, voters rejected Initiated Measure 5, which would have legalized the recreational or personal use of marijuana. The vote was 53% No to 47% Yes.
  • In South Dakota, voters rejected Initiated Measure 29, which would have legalized the recreational or personal use of marijuana. The vote was 56% No to 44% Yes.

State flag

  • In Maine, voters rejected Question 5, which would have replaced the existing state flag with the Pine Tree Flag. The vote was 55% No to 45% Yes.

Proposed flag design           Current flag of Maine 

Keep reading 

U.S. Senate

There remain three uncalled races: Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. So far, Republicans will have a 52-seat majority in the next session.

Since our last publication, we now know results in two more states: Michigan and Montana.

U.S. House

The U.S. House remains uncalled.

There are 31 uncalled races across the country. Among called races, Republicans hold a 210-194 advantage. Republicans have won six seats previously held by Democrats, and Democrats have won four seats previously held by Republicans, for a net change of +2 towards Republicans. Here are some noteworthy results:

  • Michigan’s 7th: Tom Barrett (R) defeated Curtis Hertel (D), 52% to 45%. Incumbent Elissa Slotkin (D) ran for the U.S. Senate.
  • New York’s 3rd: Incumbent Tom Suozzi (D) defeated Michael LiPetri Jr. (R), 51% to 49%. Suozzi retained the seat he first won in a February 2024 special election.
  • Texas’ 34th: Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D) defeated Mayra Flores (R), 51% to 49%. This election was a rematch from 2022, when Gonzalez won 53%-44%.
  • Ohio’s 13th: Incumbent Emilia Sykes (D) defeated Kevin Coughlin (R), 51% to 49%.

Keep Reading

Trifectas and triplexes

Trifectas

The Michigan and Minnesota state governments will change from Democratic trifectas to divided governments. Both states became Democratic trifectas in the 2022 elections. 

There will be at least 13 Democratic trifectas, 20 Republican trifectas, and nine divided governments. Trifecta status in eight states (two Democratic trifectas, three Republican trifectas, and three divided governments) remains uncalled. Heading into the election, there were 17 Democratic trifectas, 23 Republican trifectas, and 10 divided governments. 

That was a historically high number of trifectas—the average number of divided governments each year from 1992 to 2023 was 23, and the most trifectas for each party during that period was 18 for Democrats (1993) and 26 for Republicans (2018).

The changes:

Michigan House: Republicans won a new majority, breaking a Democratic trifecta. Michigan did not hold elections for state Senate or governor, both of which Democrats control. The state House will move from a 56-54 Democratic majority to a 57- 44 Republican majority. Nine races remain uncalled, with Democrats leading in eight and Republicans leading in one.

Minnesota House: The chamber is on track to be split 67-67 between Democrats and Republicans, with two races possibly going to recounts. Democratic incumbents lead in those races that are too close to call. In both races, the margin is small enough to allow for a state-funded recount at a candidate’s request. This request cannot be made until after the state canvasses the vote. If Democrats win both races, the chamber will be evenly divided for the first time since 1979. If Republicans win at least one of those two races, the party will gain a majority in the chamber for the first time since 2018.

Minnesota Democrats won a Senate special election to retain control of that chamber, while the governorship was not up for election this year. The last time Minnesota had a divided government was in 2022, when Republicans controlled the state Senate. 

If no other trifecta changes occur, 2024 would tie 2020 for the fewest trifecta changes in an even-year election since 2010. In 2010, 23 states lost or gained trifectas.

Triplexes

No state triplexes changed. If this remains the case, it would be the first time since 2016 that an election resulted in no triplex status changes. As of this writing, one state executive office, the Pennsylvania Attorney General, changed partisan control from Democrat to Republican following Tuesday’s election. Pennsylvania’s triplex status did not change as a result. 

Pre-election, there were 25 Republican triplexes, 20 Democratic triplexes, and five divided states where neither party held triplex control.

A state government triplex describes when one political party holds three positions in a state’s government: governor, attorney general, and secretary of state. In states where the governor appoints the attorney general or secretary of state, Ballotpedia considers the office to be held by the governor’s party.

Democrats retained triplexes in Delaware and Washington. Republicans retained triplexes in Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Pennsylvania and Vermont will continue to have divided triplexes.

State legislative chambers

There were elections for the members in 85 state legislative chambers. Democrats held majorities in 33, Republicans in 50, and a power-sharing coalition governed two.

Based on unofficial returns, Democrats have won majorities in 18 chambers and retained control of the Minnesota Senate through a special election. Republicans have won majorities in 45 chambers.

Two state legislative chambers have changed partisan control: the Michigan and Minnesota state Houses, as described above.

In addition to the Minnesota House, there are 21 uncalled chambers. Thirteen have Democratic majorities and six have Republican majorities. Power-sharing coalitions govern Alaska’s two chambers. 

Parties gained veto-proof supermajorities in at least one chamber and lost them in at least four.

South Carolina Republicans gained supermajority control. Heading into the election, Republicans controlled 30 Senate seats and needed 31 to reach supermajority control in the chamber. With two races left to call, Republicans won 32 Senate seats. Republicans maintained all 88 of their House seats and needed 83 for supermajority status.

North Carolina Republicans lost their veto-proof supermajority. They needed to maintain all 72 of their House seats and were one seat short, winning a 71-49 majority and no longer able to override gubernatorial vetoes.

Vermont Democrats also lost their veto-proof supermajority against Republican Gov. Phil Scott. Before the election, Democrats held one more than the 20 Senate seats required and seven more than the 100 House seats required for supermajority control. With all Senate races called and six races uncalled in the House, Democrats now hold 16 Senate seats and 78 House seats.

Republicans lost supermajority control in Montana. Republicans held the exact 34 seats needed for supermajority control of the chamber heading into the election. They lost two Senate seats, giving them a 32-18 simple majority.

Republicans in Kansas and Kentucky maintained their veto-proof supermajority status. Both have Democratic governors.

Kansas Republicans needed to maintain at least 27 Senate seats and 84 House seats to keep their veto-proof supermajority status with opposing party governor Laura Kelly (D). With six races left to call between the two chambers, Republicans won 30 Senate seats and 85 House seats.

In Kentucky, Republicans needed to maintain at least 20 Senate and 51 House seats to keep that status with Gov. Andy Beshear. With six races still uncalled between the two chambers, Republicans won 30 Senate seats and 78 House seats.

This means there will be at least two states with veto-proof supermajorities and opposing party governors. There were three heading into the 2018 election and four heading into the 2020, 2022, and 2024 elections.

Wisconsin Republicans did not reach supermajority control. Republicans had an exact supermajority in the Senate and needed two more seats to reach that threshold in the House. Democratic pickups in the Senate will prevent Republicans from maintaining supermajority control as the final races are called.

Potential supermajority control is still to be determined in Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Nevada, New York, and Oregon. Also, Florida Republicans must win at least two of the three remaining uncalled House races to maintain their legislative supermajority.

State executives

No governorships changed party control, making 2024 the first even-year election with no changes in gubernatorial party control since 2000. Eleven states held gubernatorial elections this year. Three of those governors are Democrats, and eight are Republicans. 

Ten state attorneys general offices were on the ballot, held by five Democrats and five Republicans. In Pennsylvania, Dave Sunday (R) defeated Eugene DePasquale (D), making Sunday the first Republican elected to the office since Tom Corbett (R) in 2008. As a result, there will be at least 21 Democratic, 28 Republican, and one nonpartisan attorneys general in the country, a net partisan change of one. 

Seven secretaries of state offices were on the ballot, four held by Democrats and three by Republicans. None have changed party control so far, leaving 21 Democratic and 26 Republican secretaries of state in the country.

Keep reading 

Mayoral partisanship update 

Voters in at least one of the 100 largest U.S. cities by population elected a mayor of a different political party than the incumbent. In Tulsa, Oklahoma, Monroe Nichols (D) won the general election runoff. Tulsa voters had not elected a Democratic mayor since 2006. Twelve races were uncalled as of Nov. 6.

Twenty-three of the 100 largest U.S. cities by population held general elections for mayor on Nov. 5. Heading into the election, 15 of those cities had Democratic mayors, five had Republican mayors, two had nonpartisan mayors, and one had an independent mayor. 

As of this writing, Democrats maintained control of the mayor’s office in:

Republicans maintained control of the mayor’s office in:

Mayoral elections in Corpus Christi, Texas, and El Paso, Texas, advanced to runoffs. The Corpus Christi mayoral runoff will be between incumbent Paulette Guajardo (Nonpartisan) and Michael Hunter. The El Paso mayoral runoff will be between Renard Johnson and Brian Kennedy.