Welcome to the Monday, November 11, Brew.
By: Briana Ryan
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Looking ahead to 2026 U.S. Senate elections
- Breaking down the gains in state legislative chambers…so far
- State financial officer elections results
Looking ahead to 2026 U.S. Senate elections
As a result of the 2024 U.S. Senate elections, Republicans are projected to have a 53-47 majority in the chamber. So, what does that mean for the midterms?
Looking ahead at the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, 33 of the 100 seats in the chamber will be up for election. Democrats hold 13 of those seats and Republicans hold 20.
In the six midterm elections since 2002, the incumbent president’s party has lost an average of 3.5 seats per year. Only two midterms in that time frame—2006 and 2014—have resulted in the incumbent president’s party not being in control of the chamber.
Let’s take a look at what that could mean for both parties.
Democrats
For Democrats to win control of the chamber, they would need a net gain of four seats. Of the 20 Republican-held seats up for election in 2026, four were last decided in 2020 by a margin of less than 10 percentage points: Iowa (6.6), Maine (8.6), North Carolina (1.8), and Texas (9.6). Considering these margins, those seats are considered the most vulnerable Republican-held seats.
The map below shows the Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2026 by the incumbent’s previous margin of victory.
In the most recent U.S. Senate races in those states, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) won by 12.2 percentage points, Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) won by 17.4, Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) won by 3.2, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) won by 9.8.
Looking at the partisan composition of those states, Republicans currently control both U.S. Senate seats and the governorship in Iowa and Texas. Republicans also control both U.S. Senate seats in North Carolina, but Democrats control the governorship. In Maine, Republicans hold one U.S. Senate seat and an Independent who caucuses with Democrats holds the other. Democrats also control the governorship in Maine.
In the 2024 presidential election, President-elect Donald Trump (R) won Iowa, North Carolina, and Texas. In Maine, which splits their electoral votes, Vice President Kamala Harris (D) won three and Trump won one.
The following table shows the 10 closest margins in the 2020 Senate elections for Democratic winners.
Republicans
On the Republican side, the party can lose three seats and still maintain control of the chamber. This is because in the event that the 2026 U.S. Senate elections result in a 50-50 split chamber, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance (R) would be responsible for casting tie-breaking votes, effectively giving Republicans a majority.
Republicans could expand their majority if they win one of the 13 Democratic-held seats up for election in 2026. Of those seats, five were decided by a margin of less than 10 percentage points the last time they were up for election in 2020: Colorado (9.3), Georgia (1.2), Michigan (1.7), Minnesota (5.3), and New Mexico (6.1). Considering these margins, those seats are considered the most vulnerable Democratic-held seats.
The map below shows the Republican-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2026 by the incumbent’s previous margin of victory.
In the most recent U.S. Senate races in those states, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) won by 14.6 percentage points, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) won by 2.8, Sen.-elect Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) won by 0.3, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) by 18.2, and Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) won by 8.8.
Looking at the partisan composition of those states, Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats and the governorship in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico. Democrats also control both U.S. Senate seats in Georgia, but Republicans control the governorship.
In the 2024 presidential election, Harris won Colorado, Minnesota, and New Mexico. Trump won Michigan and Georgia.
The following table shows the 10 closest margins in the 2020 Senate elections for Republican winners.
Breaking down the gains in state legislative chambers…so far
As more races are being called for state legislative seats across the country, a clearer picture is being seen on where Democrats and Republicans were able to win and lose seats.
Let’s start by taking a look at previous legislative elections.
- In 2022, Democrats gained control of four chambers and Republicans gained control of none. Democrats gained 88 seats in state legislatures and Republicans gained 103 seats.
- In 2020, Republicans also gained control of two chambers and Democrats gained control of none. Democrats gained 78 and Republicans gained 215.
- In 2018, Democrats gained control of six chambers and Republicans gained control of none. Democrats gained 391 seats and Republicans gained 93.
Let’s take a look at where these chambers stand as of Nov. 7.
Chambers where all races have been called
So far all elections for 42 state legislative chambers have been called. Of these chambers, Democrats made gains in eight and Republicans made gains in 16. There were no gains for either party in the remaining 18 chambers.
The most Democratic gains so far are in the Montana House of Representatives where the party gained nine seats. This brings the chamber’s partisan balance to 59 Republicans and 41 Democrats. The fewest gains so far for Democrats have happened in the Oregon Senate, the South Carolina House of Representatives, and the Wyoming House of Representatives where the party gained one seat in each chamber.
On the Republican side, the party gained 17 seats in the Vermont House of Representatives—the most gains in any chamber so far, which brings the partisan balance to 88 Democrats and 55 Republicans. The fewest gains have happened in the Hawaii Senate, the Massachusetts House of Representatives, the New Mexico House of Representatives, the New Mexico Senate, the South Dakota Senate, the Texas House of Representatives, the Texas Senate, and the West Virginia Senate where Republicans gained one seat in each chamber.
Chambers where most races have been called
Most of the elections for 20 chambers have been called. Based on the results so far, Democratic gains are expected in five chambers and Republican gains are expected in 12 chambers. So far, neither party is expected to gain seats in three chambers.
Chambers we’re still watching
So far, it’s unclear if either party will gain any seats in 16 chambers. Those chambers include: the Arizona Senate, the California Senate, the California State Assembly, the Colorado House of Representatives, the Maine House of Representatives, the Nebraska Senate, the Nevada State Assembly, the Nevada Senate, the New Hampshire House of Representatives, the New York State Assembly, the New York Senate, the Oregon House of Representatives, the Utah House of Representatives, the Utah Senate, the Washington House of Representatives, and the Washington Senate.
State financial officers results
State financial officeholders—treasurers, auditors, and comptrollers (or controllers)—are responsible for billions of dollars in state government funds. Heading into the election, Democrats controlled 40 offices, Republicans controlled 60, and officeholders with unclear affiliations held the remaining six.
Here’s how Republicans did: Republicans gained at least one office that Democrats currently control, defeating incumbent North Carolina Auditor Jessica Holmes.
Here’s how Democrats did: Democrats won full appointment authority over the Oregon Audits Director. The state’s current director, Kip Memmott (Nonpartisan), was appointed in 2017 by then-Republican Secretary of State Dennis Richardson. Newly-elected Secretary of State Tobias Read (D) will have the opportunity to appoint a new auditor.
The race for Oregon Treasurer between Elizabeth Steiner Hayward (D) and Brian Boquist (R) remains uncalled. Additionally, elections for the New Hampshire General Court, which appoints the New Hampshire Treasurer, remains uncalled.
The table below shows partisan control before and after the election for all 106 state financial officerships.
