Welcome to the Thursday, November 14, 2024, Brew.
By: Lara Bonatesta
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- An early look at gubernatorial elections in 2026
- Voters approve all school board recalls on Nov. 5 ballot
- Pollster Scott Rasmussen joins On The Ballot to discuss polling in the 2024 cycle
An early look at gubernatorial elections in 2026
Eleven states held gubernatorial elections in 2024. Heading into those elections, 27 governors were Republicans, and 23 were Democrats. No governorships changed partisan control as a result of these elections – the first time that’s happened in an even year since 2000.
New Jersey and Virginia will hold gubernatorial elections in 2025. Both incumbents, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), are term-limited. In 2021, the last time the offices were up, Murphy became the first Democratic governor in New Jersey to win re-election since Brendan Byrne in 1977. Youngkin became the first Republican to win a statewide election in Virginia since 2009.
The vast majority of governors come up for election during the midterms. Thirty-six states hold gubernatorial elections during midterm election years. Among the offices up in 2026, Democrats and Republicans each hold 18. If these numbers hold, this will be the first time there is an even number of governors from each party in a midterm election year since Illinois became the 36th state to hold gubernatorial elections in midterm years in 1978.
In this year’s presidential election, President-elect Donald Trump (R) won five states with Democratic governors whose offices are up in 2026, and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) won 13. Of the five states with Democratic governors that Trump won, President Joe Biden (D) won four in 2020. Those included Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Trump won 16 states with Republican governors whose offices are up in 2026, and Harris won two. Of the 16 states that Trump won, Biden won two in 2020. Those included Georgia and Nevada.
Seven states voted for the presidential candidate opposite to their governor’s party in 2024. They included:
- States with Democratic governors that Trump won: Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
- States with Republican governors that Harris won: New Hampshire and Vermont
Here’s a breakdown of each state’s term limit status heading into the 2026 elections:
- States with non-term-limited Democratic incumbents: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin.
- States with term-limited Democratic incumbents: California, Colorado, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and New Mexico.
- States with non-term-limited Republican incumbents: Arkansas, Idaho, Iowa, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, Texas, and Vermont.
- States with term-limited Republican incumbents: Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Wyoming.
The last two times these 36 offices were up for election was in 2022 and 2018. Nevada was the only state to change partisan control both times, with Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) defeating Adam Laxalt (R) in 2018 – succeeding term-limited Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) – and Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) defeating Sisolak (D) in 2022.
In 2022, four offices changed partisan control. Democrats gained three governorships in Arizona, Maryland, and Massachusetts, and Republicans gained one in Nevada. Seven incumbents were term-limited in 2022.
Eight offices changed partisan control in 2018. That year, Democrats gained seven governorships in Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Republicans gained one governorship that an independent held heading into the 2018 elections in Alaska. Thirteen incumbents were term-limited.
Nine states’ gubernatorial elections had margins-of-victory of ten percentage points or less in 2022. They included: Arizona, Georgia, Kansas, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Wisconsin. Fourteen states’ gubernatorial elections had margins-of-victory of ten percentage points or less in 2018. They included: Alaska, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. New Hampshire holds gubernatorial elections every two years. In the 2024 race, Kelly Ayotte (R) defeated Joyce Craig (D) by 6.3 percentage points.
Voters approve all school board recalls on Nov. 5 ballot
Voters in three three school districts approved five school board recalls on Nov. 5. The recalls were held in California, Idaho, and Michigan school districts.
- The recalls in California were held in the Reef-Sunset Unified School District. The names of three school board members were on the ballot: Area 1 representative Claudia Cazares, Area 2 representative Lilia Rizo, and Area 3 representative Lissette Padilla. Cazares and Padilla resigned before the recall elections were held but remained on the ballot because they resigned after the petitions were submitted. All three recalls were approved with more than 70% of the vote, according to election results released on Nov. 8.
- In Idaho, voters in the Marsh Valley Joint School District approved the recall of school board member Kathy Egan. According to unofficial results, the vote was 71.1% Yes and 28.9% No. The reasons for recall listed on the ballot were “poor performance of the school district, declining enrollment, poor financial oversight.” Egan said the financial issues facing the district were common for rural school districts in the state and said she “always felt like the best interest of the students was my goal.”
- In Michigan’s Onaway Area Community School District, Lain Veihl defeated incumbent John Palmer 52.9% to 47.1%, according to unofficial results. According to The Alpena News: “The petition against Palmer said, “Palmer allegedly made the comment, ‘If this is your preference, good for you. It doesn’t belong here. Keep it at home,’ in reference to the LGBTQ+ community.” Before the recall election, Palmer said, “I want to remain on this school board so that I may represent the voice of this district and keep our school going in a positive direction.”
Ballotpedia has tracked 37 school board recall efforts against 78 board members in 2024. One more recall election is scheduled for Dec. 17. Eleven school board members have been successfully recalled so far this year and seven have been retained in office. Between 2009 and 2023, Ballotpedia tracked an average of 35 recall efforts against an average of 81 school board members each year.
Ballotpedia tracked 20 recalls that occurred on Election Day in 2024. Of those, voters have approved 13 and rejected one. Six remained uncalled as of this writing. On Election Days in 2022 and 2023, Ballotpedia tracked 36 recalls each. Of the Election Day recalls in 2022, voters approved 19 and rejected 17, an approval rate of 59.4%. Of the Election Day recalls in 2023, voters approved 32 and rejected four, an approval rate of 88.9%.
Ballotpedia has identified a total of 223 recall efforts against 345 officials across all office types as of Nov. 11. At that time, 66 of the officials targeted for recall had been removed from office in a recall election, which is a success rate of 19%.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen joins On The Ballot to discuss polling in the 2024 cycle
Pollster and political analyst Scott Rasmussen was one of the first experts to call a victory for Trump on election night.
In this week’s episode of On The Ballot, Rasmussen joins host and Ballotpedia Editor-in-Chief Geoff Pallay to talk about polling in the 2024 cycle.
Rasmussen shares his thoughts on the accuracy of polling this cycle, the difference between polling and surveys, why Trump’s sweep of the swing states doesn’t equate to a landslide, the role A.I. could play in future polling, and more.
Click on the link below to listen.