Welcome to the Monday, November 25, Brew.
By: Briana Ryan
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- A look at incumbent win rates by state
- When legislative party control changes, 81% of constitutional amendments failed in legislatures with two-session vote requirements
- 2025 state legislative session updates
95% of incumbents nationwide who ran for re-election won
In the 2024 general elections, we covered all federal and state races as well as local elections within our coverage scope. Today, we’ll look at how the 7,412 incumbents who ran for re-election in those races fared. The races involving 375 additional incumbents who ran for re-election this year have yet to be called due to runoffs, recounts, or because vote totals are still being tallied.
In the 2024 general elections, 95% of incumbents nationwide were re-elected. In 2022, 94% of incumbents who ran for re-election won, and 93% won in 2020. This data accounts for congressional, state executive, state legislative, state judicial, and local offices within our coverage scope.
Here are some highlights from our analysis:
- This year, the incumbent win rate was greater than or equal to 90% in 43 states. In 2022, it was more than 90% in 41 states, and in 2020, it was at or above 90% in 47 states.
- Alaska, Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, Virginia, and Vermont were the only states with incumbent win rates of less than 90%. In 2022, nine states—Alaska, California, Louisiana, Nevada, New Jersey, North Dakota, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia—had incumbent win rates of less than 90%. In 2020, California, New Hampshire, Ohio, and West Virginia had incumbent win rates of less than 90%.
- Virginia had the lowest overall incumbent win rate at 78%. Virginia also had the lowest incumbent win rate in 2022 at 77%. In 2020, California had the lowest incumbent win rate at 85%.
- All incumbents who ran in three states–Delaware, Tennessee, and West Virginia–won re-election. In 2022, only Delaware and Mississippi re-elected all incumbents who sought another term. In 2020, New Jersey was the only state in which all incumbents who ran were re-elected.
- Congressional incumbents were re-elected at a 98% clip this year, the same rate as in 2022 and slightly higher than the 96% rate in 2020. In 41 states, all congressional incumbents who sought another term were re-elected. In 41 states, all congressional incumbents were re-elected, the same as in 2022. In 2020, voters in 38 states re-elected their incumbents who sought another term.
The map below highlights each state based on its incumbent win rate:
- At the state executive level, 96% of incumbents were re-elected, while 93% of state-judicial incumbents and 97% of state legislative incumbents who ran were re-elected.
- Local-executive incumbents had a 93% win rate, local judicial incumbents had a 98% win rate, and local legislative incumbents had an average win rate of 90%.
Click the link below to read more about incumbent win rates in the 2024 general elections.
When legislative party control changed, 81% of constitutional amendments failed in legislatures with two-session vote requirements
In every state except Delaware, voters must approve amendments to the state constitution. However, states have different rules and procedures for how legislatures can place constitutional amendments on the ballot.
There are two main differences for legislative actions: (a) the number of legislative sessions that a legislature must vote on a constitutional amendment; (b) the size of the affirmative vote in each legislative chamber, such as a simple majority, 60%, or two-thirds.
Thirty-six states require legislatures to approve proposed amendments during one legislative session. In 13 states, an amendment must pass in two consecutive legislative sessions before appearing on the ballot in at least some cases.
Elections occur between these legislative sessions. We found that between 2010 to 2024 when there was a change in legislative party control between legislative sessions, 81% (17 of 21) of the amendments approved during the first session failed during the second session. We also found that 19% (4 of 21) passed during the second session.
For example, in 2022, we reported on Pennsylvania’s shift from a Republican-controlled Legislature to a divided one and what that meant for proposed constitutional amendments. In a November 2022 Brew, we wrote, “One of the downstream effects of the chamber changing party control is that it could stop a number of legislatively referred constitutional amendments from reaching the ballot.” When the 2023-2024 legislative session adjourned on Nov. 13, that is what happened.
- During the 2021-2022 legislative session, the Republican-controlled Legislature approved six constitutional amendments addressing abortion, voter ID, civil lawsuits, election audits, the lieutenant governor, and the legislature’s authority to disapprove regulations.
- None of the six constitutional amendments were subsequently passed a second time and not advance to the ballot.
Amendments that passed when Republicans were in control of the House did not get floor votes when Democrats controlled the House in the 2023-2024 session. One amendment addressing civil suits related to childhood sexual abuse had bipartisan support. However, it failed during the second session as Republicans sought to pass multiple amendments in a single resolution, and Democrats sought to pass a resolution containing one amendment.
Following the 2024 election, the Pennsylvania Legislature will continue to be divided, with a Republican-controlled Senate and a Democratic-controlled House.
Between the 2010 and 2024 legislative sessions, legislatures approved 132 constitutional amendments during one legislative session in the states with two-session vote requirements. However, 47 of these constitutional amendments (36%) failed during the second legislative session.
None of the legislative chambers in these 13 states changed control following the Nov. 5 elections. When chambers did not change political party control, 27% of amendments failed during the second session. Constitutional amendments could appear on the ballot in 2025 or 2026 in the following states requiring two-session votes: Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New York, Tennessee, Vermont, and Wisconsin.
Measures could also appear on the ballot in Virginia, which elects legislators during odd-numbered years. Any amendments passed during the 2024-2025 session must pass again in 2026 to appear on the ballot. The General Assembly has not passed any yet, but Democrats, who control the House and Senate, have introduced several constitutional amendments on abortion, same-sex marriage, and voting. For these amendments to appear on the ballot in 2026, Virginia Democrats would likely need to maintain control of both chambers.
2025 state legislative session updates
Let’s look ahead to state sessions in 2025. According to the 2025 MultiState Insider Resource all 50 states are expected to hold regular legislative sessions.
- The Massachusetts session will begin first on Jan. 1.
- Idaho, Montana, Ohio, and Wisconsin will start their sessions on Jan. 6.
- Louisiana will start its session on April 14.
- Florida, Louisiana, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming are scheduled to have the shortest sessions of the year, lasting up to two months.
The Tenth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution declares that any power not already given to the federal government is reserved to the states and the people. State governments across the country use this authority to hold legislative sessions where a state’s elected representatives meet for a period to draft and vote on legislation and set state policies on issues such as taxation, education, and government spending. Forty-six state legislatures hold regular sessions annually. The other four states—Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, and Texas—meet in odd-numbered years.
Five states are currently still in session for 2024. Michigan, New Jersey, and Ohio are in regular sessions that will adjourn on Dec. 19. North Carolina is also currently in session. Louisiana’s current special session is scheduled to adjourn on Nov. 25. California has a special session scheduled on Dec. 2.
For more information on previous legislative sessions, click here. On that page, you’ll find our historical data for legislative sessions in every state going back to 2010.