Welcome to the Tuesday, December 17, Brew.
By: Briana Ryan
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- The number of special legislative elections hit a decade low this year
- Forty-five bills on the administrative state pre-filed for 2025 session
- Fifteen U.S. House incumbents lost their re-election campaigns this year
The number of special legislative elections hit a decade low this year
There were 52 special elections for state legislative seats in 22 states this year, the fewest since 2014, when there were 40.
Let’s take a closer look at how these special elections happened:
- 31 happened because an incumbent resigned
- 11 happened because an incumbent was appointed, elected, or sought election to another position
- Four happened because an incumbent died
- Six happened because of redistricting
The process for filling vacancies varies from state to state. Twenty-five states fill legislative vacancies through special elections. Twenty-one states fill vacancies through appointments, and four states fill vacancies through a hybrid system that uses both appointments and special elections.
A look at special legislative elections from 2011 to 2023
From 2011 to 2023, a total of 925 special legislative elections happened. That’s an average of 68 special legislative elections per year. Since 2011, 498 special legislative elections happened because a Democratic incumbent left office early, 477 happened because a Republican incumbent left office early, and two happened because a minor party incumbent left office early.
Since 2011, 116 special legislative elections resulted in a partisan change—62 were Democratic gains, 48 were Republican gains, and six were minor party gains.
Let’s dig deeper into the data behind this year’s special legislative elections.
A look at the special legislative elections that happened this year
This year, the third-fewest special legislative elections happened since 2011, behind 2014 (40) and 2012 (46).
Twenty-five seats were vacant because a Democratic incumbent left office early, and 27 seats were vacant because a Republican incumbent left office early. Six resulted in a partisan change—five seats were Democratic gains, and Republicans gained one.
North Dakota had seven special legislative elections this year—the most of any state. Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Utah, and Wisconsin had the fewest with one each.
Looking ahead to the 2025 special elections
To date, four special elections have been scheduled for 2025 in three states—Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Virginia. Three of the vacancies—two in Virginia and one in South Carolina—are because Democratic incumbents were either elected to another office or filed to run for another office. In Oklahoma, there is one vacancy because the Republican incumbent resigned.
Additional special election coverage
In addition to special legislative elections, we also cover special congressional elections with data going back to the 99th Congress from 1985 to 1986. In the 118th Congress from 2023 to 2024, there were 13 special congressional elections—four happened because Democratic incumbents left office early, and six happened because Republican incumbents left office early. Of the 10 congressional special elections this year, the race for New York’s 3rd Congressional District was the only one that resulted in a partisan change.
Forty-five administrative state bills pre-filed for 2025 session
Legislators in 10 states have pre-filed 45 bills related to the Administrative State including bills on oversight of regulations, judicial deference to agencies, agency use of AI surveillance, regulation budgets and limitations, cost-benefit analysis requirements, agency appointment processes, and occupational licensing and permitting.
The administrative state is a term used to describe the phenomenon of executive branch administrative agencies exercising the power to create, adjudicate, and enforce their own rules. Five pillars are key to understanding the main areas of debate about the nature and scope of administrative agency action: nondelegation, judicial deference, executive control of agencies, procedural rights, and agency dynamics.
There have been 40 bills pre-filed in states with Republican trifectas, three in states with Democratic trifectas, and two in states with divided governments.
The 45 bills were pre-filed in the following states:
- 15 bills in Montana,
- 12 bills in Texas,
- six bills in Missouri,
- four bills in Florida,
- two bills in California,
- two bills in South Carolina, and
- one bill each in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wyoming.
Here are some of the noteworthy bills that have been filed so far:
- Missouri SB350: Establishes a REINS-style law requiring the general assembly to approve proposed administrative rules costing $250,000 or more.
- Montana LC1339: Prohibits state agencies from using artificial intelligence to surveil the public.
- Montana LC1784/HB52: Revises the state’s Administrative Procedure Act to require courts to decide cases without deference to an agency’s interpretation of a law.
- South Carolina HB3021: The bill was named “Small Business Regulatory Freedom Act” and requires the Small Business Regulatory Review Committee to review regulations pending reauthorization, among other provisions.
- Texas HB1259: Establishes the State Agency Rules Review Commission as a legislative committee consisting of eight legislators and three public members to review rules and determine agency rulemaking authority.
Among the 45 pre-filed bills there was also legislation about specific agencies or regulations.
In 2024, we tracked 583 bills and resolutions in 44 states related to the administrative state. Thirty-eight of those states adopted or enacted 129 of those bills or resolutions. Looking at how those bills affected the administrative state in those states:
- Thirty states passed 88 bills that decreased agency power
- Eight states passed nine bills that increased agency power
- Thirty-two bills and resolutions did not clearly increase or decrease agency power
For more on our coverage of the administrative state this year, check out our 2024 Legislation Report. You can also use our Administrative State Legislation Tracker, which covers bills across all 50 states that increase or decrease agency authority and influence or otherwise affect the administrative state.
Fifteen U.S. House incumbents lost their re-election campaigns this year
When the 119th Congress takes office on Jan. 3, there will be 15 new members of the U.S. House of Representatives who defeated incumbents in a primary or general election this year.
Since 2000, 288 U.S. House incumbents—142 Democrats and 146 Republicans—have lost in a primary or general election each year. That’s an average of 22 incumbents per year.
Eleven U.S. House incumbents—four Democrats and seven Republicans—lost a general election this year. Since 2000, 230 incumbents have lost re-election in a general election. That’s an average of 17 incumbents per year.
Democratic incumbents who lost re-election in a general election
Four Democratic incumbents lost re-election in a general election this year. Since 2000, 166 Democratic incumbents have lost re-election in a general election. That’s an average of 12 incumbents per year.
Half of all Democratic incumbents who lost re-election in a general election this year—Susan Wild (D) and Matt Cartwright (D)—are part of Pennsylvania’s U.S. House delegation. The other Democratic incumbents who lost re-election are Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) and Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.).
Republican incumbents who lost re-election in a general election
Seven Republican incumbents lost re-election in a general election this year. Since 2000, 114 Republican incumbents have lost re-election in a general election. That’s an average of eight incumbents per year.
Six of the seven Republican incumbents who lost re-election in a general election this year were either part of California’s or New York’s U.S. House delegation. The three Republican incumbent members of California’s U.S. House delegation were John Duarte (R), Michelle Steel (R), and Mike Garcia (R). The three Republican incumbent members of New York’s U.S. House delegation were Anthony D’Esposito (R), Brandon Williams (R), and Marcus Molinaro (R). The other Republican incumbent who lost re-election is Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.).