Welcome to the Monday, January 27, 2025, Brew.
By: Lara Bonatesta
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- The year of the incumbent – 94% of incumbent state legislators won re-election
- Maine voters may decide on voter ID and extreme risk protection orders in 2025
- A weekly roundup of election administration state legislative activity
The year of the incumbent – 94% of incumbent state legislators won re-election
State legislative sessions are in nearly full force – but let’s take a quick break to look back at the final figures for how incumbents performed in the 2024 election cycle.
In total, 303 incumbents lost, representing about 6.2% of the 4,853 who ran. In other words, 94% of incumbents won re-election. This was the fewest incumbent defeats in any even year since 2012. 408 incumbents lost in 2022, and 382 lost in 2020. Between 2010 and 2022, the average number of overall incumbent defeats was about 445.
- 169 (or about 3.5%) of incumbents who ran in primaries were defeated
- 134 (2.9%) of those who ran in general elections were defeated
2024 was the third presidential election year since Ballotpedia started collecting this data. Over that time, the number of incumbent defeats in presidential election years has fallen.
In 2018, Ballotpedia published a study on historical wave elections, or elections in which one party makes significant electoral gains. In the report, we examined 50 election cycles from 1918 to 2016, which spans Woodrow Wilson’s (D) second midterm to Donald Trump’s (R) first presidential election. We defined wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period that resulted in the greatest swing against the president’s party.
There were 5,807 state legislative seats up for election in 44 states on Nov. 5. For 2024 to qualify historically as a wave election against the president’s party, Democrats would have needed to lose 494 state legislative seats. Democrats lost 127 seats in 2024, the fewest since we started tracking in 2012.
Across the 50 election cycles included in the 2018 report, the president’s party lost an average of 169 state legislative seats and gained an average of 29 state legislative seats in presidential election years. In presidential elections where the president’s party lost, like in 2024, the president’s party lost an average of 200 state legislative seats.
Republicans lost 174 seats in 2024. The average number of Republican losses from 2010 to 2022 was about 206.
Primary elections
This was the second even-year election in a row in which primary defeats outnumbered those in general elections.
4,853 incumbents ran for re-election in 2024. The 169 primary losses accounted for 3.5% of all incumbents who ran for re-election. There were 229 losses in 2022 and 157 in 2020.
The table below shows a partisan breakdown:
General elections
In state legislative general elections, 134 incumbents were defeated, which represents 2.9% of the 4,678 incumbents who sought re-election. This was the lowest percentage of incumbents defeated in general elections since Ballotpedia started tracking this data in 2010. The 134 defeated incumbents represented a 40% decrease from the number of incumbents defeated in 2020.
The table below shows a partisan breakdown of incumbents who lost in 2024:
For a full list of all incumbents who lost re-election campaigns this year and full data broken down by state, read more here.
Maine voters may decide on voter ID and extreme risk protection orders in November
Voters in Maine may decide on two citizen initiatives this year – one that would require voters to present photo identification to cast a ballot and one that would create a process for obtaining an extreme risk protection order. These were the only two campaigns to submit signatures by the Jan. 23 deadline.
Citizen initiatives are indirect in Maine. This means that the Legislature will first consider the initiatives, and if it rejects or does not act on them, the measures will appear before voters on Nov. 4, 2025.
Maine Require Voter Photo Identification Initiative
The Maine Require Voter Photo Identification Initiative would require voters to present photo identification at the polls. The measure would also require voters to present either (1) a Maine driver’s license or nondriver identification card number (2) a copy of the voter’s photo ID when applying for an absentee ballot. Accepted forms of photo ID are listed in the petition. Maine is one of 15 states that do not have voter ID requirements.
In addition to establishing a voter ID requirement, the measure would also:
- Repeal a provision allowing immediate family members to return absentee ballots to a secure dropbox.
- Remove an option allowing municipalities to request additional drop boxes and require them to have one instead.
- Require a bipartisan team of election officials to collect the contents from drop boxes, instead of municipal clerks
- End a program allowing senior citizens to sign up to receive an absentee ballot automatically before each election.
Proponents of the measure said that it would make elections more secure. Maine state Rep. Laurel Libby (R), who is one of the lead organizers of the effort, said, “Maine people are reasonable. They want to have confidence that we have strong elections in our state and they understand that requiring an ID to vote is not radical. It’s not extreme. It’s common sense.”
Opponents said it would disenfranchise voters and cost taxpayers money. The League of Women Voters of Maine Executive Director Anna Kellar said, “It’s disappointing to see Mainers try to impose these barriers on their fellow Mainers’ right to vote when this state is justly proud of its high voter participation rates. These restrictions can and will harm every type of voter, with senior and rural voters experiencing the worst of the disenfranchisement. It will be costly, too. Taxpayers will be on the hook to pay for a new system that is unnecessary, expensive, and harmful to Maine voters.”
Maine is not the only state that is considering a voter ID requirement this year. On April 1, Wisconsin voters will decide on a constitutional amendment to require photo ID to cast a ballot. To see our coverage of that amendment, click here.
In 2026, voters in North Carolina and Nevada will also decide on constitutional amendments to require voter ID.
Nine states have voted on ballot measures to enact voter photo ID requirements. Eight were approved, including a constitutional amendment in Nevada that needs to be approved a second time in 2026 to take effect. Five of these measures – in Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, and North Carolina – added voter ID requirements to their respective states’ constitutions. One measure – which would have added a voter ID requirement to Minnesota’s constitution – was defeated in 2012. Click here to learn about voter ID laws in each state.
Thirty-five states require voters to present identification in order to vote at the polls on Election Day. Of these states, 23 require voters to present identification containing a photograph, with certain exceptions, and 12 states do not explicitly require photo identification. The remaining 15 states do not require photo ID in order to vote at the polls on Election Day.
Maine Extreme Risk Protection Orders Initiative
The Maine Extreme Risk Protection Orders Initiative would allow family members, household members, or law enforcement to ask a court for an extreme risk protection order to restrict a person’s access to certain weapons if they pose a ”significant danger of causing physical injury to another person.”
As of August 2024, 21 states have laws authorizing courts to issue extreme risk protection orders and four states have laws that prohibit such orders. Maine is the only state with what local media outlets call a “yellow flag law,” which allows law enforcement, not family members, to ask a judge for an extreme risk protection order and requires a mental health evaluation.
In the initiative, a person is considered to pose a significant danger if:
- They have inflicted or attempted to inflict physical injury on another person
- They have placed another person in reasonable fear of physical injury as a result of their threats or actions
- They have presented a danger to another person in their care as a result of their actions or inactions
According to the measure, an extreme risk protection order, which is also known as a red flag law or a gun violence restraining order, “prohibits and enjoins an individual from purchasing, possessing or receiving a dangerous weapon or having or attempting to have custody or control of a dangerous weapon.” “Dangerous weapon” is defined as a “firearm or any device designed as a weapon and capable of producing death or serious bodily injury.”
Supporters of the measure say it will save lives and keep communities safer. Nacole Palmer, executive director of the Maine Gun Safety Coalition, the group that submitted the signatures, said, “There is no single policy that will end with all gun violence, but extreme risk protection orders provide a life saving tool. … This November, Mainers will have the chance to have their own say and vote on this initiative to keep our schools and our communities safe.”
Opponents of the measure say extreme risk protection orders can be abused and take rights away from responsible gun owners. Laura Whitcomb, president of the Gun Owners of Maine, said, “While the Maine Gun Safety Coalition continues to utilize emotional pleas in an attempt to manipulate the people of Maine, Gun Owners of Maine will stand ready with the facts, and will continue to defend the rights of responsible gun owners in the face of the anti-gun rights lobby’s attempt to turn Maine into states like New York, Illinois and California.”
The chart below shows the status of extreme risk protection order laws in each state and the state’s trifecta status at the time that its law was passed.
A weekly roundup of election administration state legislative activity
As legislative sessions continue across the country. Let’s look at where lawmakers are considering changes to election administration. A version of this story appeared in our Jan. 24. Ballot Bulletin, our weekly email that delivers the latest updates on election policy. Click here to sign up.
We are following 1,189 election-related bills this year, including bills carried over from the previous year. At this point in 2023, we were following 961 bills.
Lawmakers in 25 states acted on 216 bills last week, 18 more than the previous week. Legislators acted on 274 bills during the same week in 2024, 275 in 2023, and 304 in 2022.
No bills were enacted this week. Two bills were enacted during the same week in 2024, one in 2023, and two in 2022.
Here is some other notable legislation that lawmakers are considering:
- As mentioned above, a citizen initiative to require voter ID in Maine was one of two campaigns to submit signatures by the state’s Jan. 23 deadline. Because citizen initiatives are indirect in Maine, the Legislature will first consider the legislation, and if it rejects or does not act on it, the measure will appear before voters on Nov. 4.
- Voters in Alaska may also decide on two election-related ballot measures including one to repeal ranked-choice voting and establish a party primary system, and another that would establish new campaign finance limits. These initiatives are also indirect. If they are certified and the Legislature does not act on them, they will go on the 2026 ballot. Click here to see our coverage of these initiatives in our Jan. 22 edition of The Brew.
No bills passed both chambers of any legislature, and governors vetoed no bills. To see all bills awaiting gubernatorial action and their full summaries, click here. To see all vetoed bills, click here.
Click here to see the 2025 bills we’re tracking, and click here to see a list of 2025 state legislative session dates.
Note: In some states, legislators are able to file hundreds of bills per day. We are actively reviewing those bills to determine their relevance to election administration. As a result, during this period of heightened legislative activity, year-to-year comparisons may not yet account for all relevant bills introduced in 2025.