Nearly 90% of the country lives in a county that voted for the same presidential candidate from 2016 to 2024

By

Ballotpedia staff

Welcome to the Monday, March 3, Brew. 

By: Briana Ryan

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Nearly 90% of the country live in a county that voted for the same presidential candidate from 2016 to 2024
  2. President Donald Trump ends February with 48% approval, 48% disapproval
  3. Previewing Indiana’s only regularly-scheduled 2025 election

Nearly 90% of the country live in a county that voted for the same presidential candidate from 2016 to 2024

With President Donald Trump (R) starting the second month of his second term in office, we’re looking at how he got there. Today, we’ll look at the voting patterns of the nation’s 3,112 counties in the last three presidential elections.

First, let’s look at how we categorize which candidate these counties have voted for in the last three presidential elections:

  • Solid – A candidate from the same party won the county in three consecutive elections.
  • Trending – A candidate from one party won the county in 2016, but a candidate from the opposite party won in 2020 and 2024.
  • Battleground – A candidate from one party won the county in 2016 and 2024, but a candidate from the opposite party won in 2020.
  • New – A candidate from one party won the county in 2016 and 2020, but a candidate from the opposite party won in 2024.

We also add Democratic or Republican to the categorization based on the candidate’s party who won the county in 2024.

Now, let’s look at which candidates won which counties in the last three elections.

In the last three elections, the Democratic nominees—Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016, Joe Biden (D) in 2020, and Kamala Harris (D) in 2024—each won the same 421 counties. At the time of the 2024 election, the total population of those 421 counties was 160,662,201, or 48.1% of the U.S. population.

Trump won the same 2,559 counties in the last three elections. At the time of the 2024 election, the total population of those 2,559 counties was 133,893,373, or 40.1% of the U.S. population.

Finally, both parties’ nominees have won the remaining 132 counties at least once in the last three elections. At the time of the 2024 election, the total population of those 132 counties was 39,388,845, or 11.8% of the U.S. population.

Here are some noteworthy data points that we saw from the 2024 election:

  • Trump won 86 counties in 2024 which Biden won in 2020. Harris won no counties in 2024 that Trump won in 2020.
  • Republicans converted a majority of their Trending Republican counties from 2020 to Solid Republican counties in 2024.
  • Democrats lost Solid Democratic counties from 2020.

Of the nation’s 3,112 counties, Republicans won a larger share of the vote in 2024 compared to 2020 in 2,778 counties. Of those 2,778 counties:

  • Eighty-one counties shifted towards Republicans by 10 to 15 percentage points.
  • Fourteen counties shifted towards Republicans by 15 to 20 percentage points.
  • Eight counties shifted towards Republicans by more than 20 percentage points. 

The largest swing was in Maverick County, Texas, which shifted from D+10 to R+19, resulting in a 29-point swing for Republicans.

Democrats won a larger share of the vote in 318 counties. The largest swing was in Henry County, Georgia, which shifted from D+20 to D+29, resulting in a total 9-point swing for Democrats.

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President Donald Trump ends February with 48% approval, 48% disapproval

At the end of February, polling averages showed President Donald Trump (R) with a 48% approval rating. Forty-eight percent of voters disapproved of his performance. 

To date, Trump’s approval rating during his second term was at its lowest, 47%, on Feb. 7. Trump’s approval rating was at its highest, 54%, on Jan. 22.

Congressional approval is at 30%, and disapproval is at 55%. That’s the 119th Congress’ highest approval rating. The 119th Congress’ approval rating was at its lowest, 19%, on Jan. 29.

At this point in Trump’s first term, his approval rating was 44%, and congressional approval was 25%. At this point in Joe Biden’s term, Biden’s approval rating was 53%, and congressional approval was 20%. Click here to see our comparison of opinion polling during the Trump and Biden administrations.

Ballotpedia’s polling index calculates presidential and congressional approval ratings by averaging polls conducted over the last 30 days. We average the results and show all polling results side-by-side because we believe that paints a clearer picture of public opinion than any individual poll can provide. The data is updated daily as new polling results are published.

Click on the provided links to see our polling index for presidential approval ratings and our polling index for congressional approval ratings.

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Previewing Indiana’s only regularly-scheduled 2025 election

One of Ballotpedia’s major initiatives is expanding our coverage of local elections. As our coverage has grown, we’ve uncovered some elections that are important not just for the voters and candidates directly involved but also for what these elections tell us about how our democratic process works and the history behind it.

On that last item, the March 3 election in Vernon, Indiana, population 236, is a case in point. On the 3rd, Vernon voters cast their ballots in the state’s only regularly scheduled election of the year.

Vernon is holding an election today because it is the only town in Indiana still governed by a charter enacted in 1851 rather than state law.

Ballotpedia spoke with co-director of the Indiana Election Division, J. Bradley King, who shared some examples of what makes Vernon’s elections different from all other cities and towns in Indiana:

  • Elections are held on a Monday rather than a Tuesday
  • Polls are open from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. rather than 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.
  • Winners serve two- rather than four-year terms
  • Voters elect a mayor, which is typically only a position in cities, not towns
  • Voters elect a town marshal, making the Vernon Town Marshal the state’s only elected marshal

King described Election Day in Vernon as follows: 

“Observing an election in the Town of Vernon is like taking a journey through time. The polls are opened by the loud ringing of a hand-held bell … with the voters casting their ballots on handwritten and hand-counted pieces of paper, deposited in an old wooden ballot box … After the 4 pm close of the polls, the ballot box is opened and counted in the presence of all who wish to view the canvass.”

During Indiana’s time as a territory and early statehood, the governor and legislature would enact numerous specific laws bringing chartered corporations into being, including commercial enterprises, churches, and local governments.

The state’s growth during the first half of the 19th century resulted in a large increase in these individual charters to the point where they outnumbered general provisions in state law.

In 1851, lawmakers rewrote Indiana’s constitution to prohibit creating new, individually chartered corporations and enacted laws allowing existing corporations to reorganize and relinquish their charters.

Today, every town in Indiana is governed under Title 36 of the Indiana Code except for Vernon.

Here’s a look at what and who’s on the ballot:

Indiana is one of 26 states where Ballotpedia will provide comprehensive election coverage in 2025. Click here to learn more about that coverage.

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