Welcome to the Tuesday, April 8, Brew.
By: Briana Ryan
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- As voters decide on trifecta status in New Jersey and Virginia this year, we’re looking at the history of trifectas
- Incumbent Lawrence Krasner and Patrick Dugan are running in the Democratic primary for Philadelphia district attorney on May 20
- Maryland voters to decide on changes to vacancy procedures for Judicial Disabilities Commission in 2026
As voters decide on trifecta status in New Jersey and Virginia this year, we’re looking at the history of trifectas
Every year, we release an annual report on state government trifecta vulnerability based on the states having regularly scheduled gubernatorial or legislative elections that year. New Jersey and Virginia are the only states meeting that criteria this year. Today, we’ll tell you about what’s at stake in those two states and examine the history of trifectas nationwide.
First, let’s look at why this matters.
A trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both legislative chambers. Trifecta control is significant because policy changes often follow changes in trifecta status, allowing a political party to advance its agenda. Gaining or breaking trifectas—or, in some cases, maintaining a divided government—often becomes a major election priority for state parties.
Heading into the 2025 general elections:
- Fifteen states have a Democratic trifecta.
- Twenty-three states have a Republican trifecta.
- Twelve states have a divided government.
The chart below shows the percentage of the population living under Democratic trifectas, Republican trifectas, and divided governments as of January 2025. Population figures are taken from the U.S. Census Bureau’s July 2024 estimates.
The following chart displays how many trifectas each party held between 1992 and 2025. Because newly-elected officeholders are not sworn in until December of the election year or January of the following year, changes in trifecta status as a result of general elections are reflected in the following year’s numbers.
Now, let’s focus on what’s at stake in New Jersey and Virginia.
We rate New Jersey’s Democratic trifecta as somewhat vulnerable. No Senate seats are up for election this year, but voters will decide on all 80 seats in the General Assembly and the governor’s office.
Democrats currently have a 52-28 majority in the Assembly and a 25-15 majority in the Senate. If Republicans gain 13 seats or win the governorship, the state will be a divided government. Democrats will retain their trifecta if they lose fewer than 13 seats in the Assembly and retain the governorship.
We rate Virginia as having a moderate possibility of creating a Democratic trifecta. There are no Senate seats up for election in Virginia this year, but voters will decide on all 100 seats in the House of Delegates and the governor’s office.
Democrats currently have a 51-49 majority in the House and a 21-19 majority in the Senate. If Republicans gain two seats or win the governorship, the state will remain a divided government. If Democrats lose no seats in the House and win the governorship, they would gain a trifecta.
To read our full trifecta vulnerability report for 2025, click here.
Incumbent Lawrence Krasner and Patrick Dugan are running in the Democratic primary for Philadelphia district attorney on May 20
As part of our ongoing coverage of local elections across the U.S., we’re spotlighting this year’s Democratic primary for Philadelphia district attorney. Incumbent Lawrence Krasner (D) and Patrick Dugan (D) are running in the primary on May 20.
According to WHYY radio‘s Carmen Russell-Sluchansky, “The contest pits two competing philosophies against each other: Krasner’s commitment to continuing to overhaul a historically punitive system and Dugan’s pledge to restore a sense of safety.” City & State Pennsylvania‘s Harrison Cann wrote, “Each candidate will attempt to paint a different picture of the city, with Krasner likely to boast about declining homicide and violent crime rates, while Dugan could hone in on public sentiment that the city doesn’t feel safe.”
Now, let’s take a closer look at the candidates.
Krasner has served as district attorney since 2017. He previously worked as an attorney, both as a public defender and in private practice. Krasner’s priorities include:
- Working on legislative change to protect and re-invest in the community
- Working to end money bail and expand pre-trial release
- Expanding alternatives to prosecutions
Dugan served as a Philadelphia Municipal Court judge from 2007 to 2024. He previously served in the U.S. Army for 23 years and worked as an attorney in private practice. Dugan’s priorities include:
- Expanding resources for diversionary programs, job training, and education
- Engaging with communities, law enforcement, and victims
- Prioritizing public safety
No Republican candidate has filed to run in the general election, meaning the primary winner will be unopposed in November.
For more information on this primary election, click here. Also, if you’re a Philadelphia resident, check out our Sample Ballot Lookup here to prepare for Election Day.
Maryland voters to decide on changes to vacancy procedures for Judicial Disabilities Commission in 2026
On Nov. 3, 2026, Maryland voters will decide on a constitutional amendment changing how vacancies are filled on the Judicial Disabilities Commission.
Maryland voters established the commission when they approved Amendment 5, 62% to 38%. That amendment established the commission and tasked it with the following duties:
- Investigating complaints against any judge or justice of the Maryland Supreme Court, Maryland Appellate Court, Circuit Courts, District Courts, or Orphans’ Courts
- Issue reprimands
- Recommending to the Maryland Supreme Court the removal, censure, or other disciplinary measures of a judge
The commission is composed of 11 members:
- Three judges (one appellate judge, one circuit court judge, and one district court judge)
- Three lawyers admitted to the Maryland bar that have practiced for at least seven years
- Five public members who are not lawyers or active or retired judges
The term of office is four years, and members are limited to a maximum of 10 years if appointed to fill a vacancy.
The amendment would allow the commission’s chair to appoint former members to temporarily fill vacancies or allow the governor to appoint a substitute member or extend the term of an existing member when a vacancy occurs due to a commission member’s recusal, disqualification, or expiration of term.
The amendment would also require any temporary substitute member to be subject to the same qualifications applied to the former member. If the member is a judge or attorney, they must be in good standing with the Maryland Bar.
Currently, the governor fills vacancies on the commission via appointment with the advice and consent of the Maryland Senate.
On March 13 the Maryland House of Delegates approved House Bill 788 (HB 788)—the bill to put the amendment on the ballot—139-0. On April 2, the Maryland Senate approved the bill 46-0.
Advocacy Director of the Maryland Bar Shaoli Sarkar wrote in support of the amendment: “HB 788 would allow the Commission [on] Judicial Disabilities, a judicial agency responsible for monitoring the conduct of Maryland judges and justices, to continue its work without delay due to member recusals or vacancies.”
This amendment is the first that Maryland voters will decide in 2026. Between 1995 and 2024, 35 amendments appeared on Maryland ballots, and voters approved all but two.
For a closer look at the constitutional amendment that Maryland voters will decide in 2026, click here.