Welcome to the Tuesday, June 24, 2025, Brew.
By: Lara Bonatesta
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Senators running for governor win 42% of the time, and governors running for Senate win 33% of the time
- Arizona voters to decide on constitutional amendment prohibiting taxes on vehicle miles traveled in November 2026
- A weekly roundup of election administration legislative activity
Senators running for governor win 42% of the time, and governors running for Senate win 33% of the time
As the 2026 midterm elections grow closer, parties are looking for candidates to run in the primaries, and some candidates have begun announcing their campaigns. Notably, two incumbent U.S. senators, Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), have announced candidacies for governor of their respective states.
Last month, we looked at almost 40 years of data to get a sense of how senators fare when they run for governor and vice versa. Today, we’re looking at data all the way back to the ratification of the 17th Amendment in 1913, which established the direct election of senators.
Fewer senators have run for governor than the other way around, but senators win gubernatorial elections at a higher rate. We’ll get to those figures below, but first, here’s a quick look at the national landscape of 2026 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections.
- Thirty-six states are holding gubernatorial elections, and 16 incumbent governors are term-limited. Thirty-three U.S. Senate seats are up for election.
- In addition to Bennet and Tuberville, several other current and former senators are considered potential gubernatorial candidates. These include current Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), and former senator, former vice president, and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris (D-Calif.)
- No current or former governors have announced candidacies for the U.S. Senate. Potential candidates include former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D).
Since 1914, 58 incumbent or former U.S. senators ran in 62 gubernatorial elections. In those elections, senators won 26 (42%) times, lost in the general election 17 (27%) times, and lost in the primary 18 (29%) times. Some senators ran more than once, and some elections had more than one senator running in them. Additionally, two senators faced a unique outcome, which we note below.
In that same period, 334 incumbent or former state governors have run in 344 U.S. Senate elections. Governors won 126 (33%) times, lost in the general election 115 (30%) times, and lost in the primary 124 (33%) times. Some elections had more than one governor running, and some governors ran in multiple elections. Sixteen governors had a different kind of outcome – some died, some withdrew, and some lost in conventions.
Since 1914, 28 Democratic and Republican senators and four third party or independent senators ran for governor. In that same period, 179 Democratic governors, 148 Republican governors, and eight third party or independent governors have run for Senate.
On average, governors ran for Senate 3.6 years after leaving office, while the senators ran for governor 3.9 years after leaving office. Nebraska had the most governors running for Senate, with 16 governors running in 15 elections. Texas had the most senators running for governor, with five senators running in six elections.
To read more about these results, click here.
Arizona voters to decide on constitutional amendment prohibiting taxes on vehicle miles traveled in November 2026
On Nov. 3, 2026, Arizona voters will decide on a constitutional amendment that would prohibit taxes on miles traveled in a motor vehicle. The amendment (SCR 1004) would also prevent state and local governments from passing laws to monitor or limit any individual’s vehicle miles traveled without the person’s consent.
If passed, this amendment would be the first of its kind in the country.
A vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tax, sometimes called a user-based mileage fee, is a charge per mile that individuals drive on public roads. States have implemented VMTs in different ways, with tax rates changing based on vehicle weight, time, and travel location.
The Tax Foundation describes VMTS as a way to “supplement or replace gas tax revenues.” According to the foundation, Oregon was the first state to implement a VMT in 2015. Twenty-four states currently have either a pilot program or an active VMT tax. Additionally, 37 states have conducted research or joined regional coalitions testing VMT policies. Most of these programs are voluntary and only apply to fully electric or hybrid vehicles. In some states, like Oregon, drivers can receive a discount on registration fees for participating in the voluntary program. Hawaii has a mandatory VMT program, which requires electric vehicles to participate by 2028 and light vehicles by 2033.
Scot Mussi, the President of the Arizona Free Enterprise Club, supports the amendment. He said, “As we have seen in other states, governments left to their own devices will succumb to radical attempts to track, tax, or limit their citizens’ transportation miles.”
Jacob Emmett, with the County Supervisors Association of Arizona, said the amendment “prohibits revenue options without suggesting other solutions.”
This is the second time Arizona lawmakers have proposed such an amendment. In 2024, the Arizona House voted 31-28 to approve House Concurrent Resolution 2018 (HCR 2018), which contained almost identical language to SCR 1004. The Senate rejected it 15-15.
Former state Sen. Ken Bennett (R-1) was the only Senate Republican to vote against the 2024 amendment. He lost the Republican primary later that year. In the 2024 general election, Republicans increased their Senate majority from 16-14 to 17-13.
The Arizona Senate approved SCR 1004 17-12. Seventeen Republicans voted yes, and 12 Democrats voted no. One Democrat did not vote. The House passed the amendment 31-0, with 29 representatives not voting. Thirty-one Republicans voted yes, and 27 Democrats and two Republicans did not vote. In Arizona, constitutional amendments do not need the governor’s signature to qualify for the ballot.
SCR 1004 is the first measure certified for the 2026 ballot in Arizona. There are 21 measures that could still be put on the ballot.
To learn more about Arizona’s 2026 ballot measures, click here.
A weekly roundup of election administration legislative activity
As legislative sessions continue across the country, we’re following the latest nationwide trends and legislative activity related to election policy.
Let’s start with some key takeaways from last week:
- Lawmakers in 21 states acted on 145 bills last week, 25 fewer than the previous week.
- Ten bills were enacted last week. Twenty bills were enacted during the same week in 2024, 46 were enacted in 2023, and 10 were enacted in 2022.
- We are currently following 4,574 bills. At this time in 2023, the last odd year when all states held legislative sessions, we were following 2,608 bills.
Now, let’s check out some other noteworthy election-related developments:
- On June 18, the Ohio Senate passed SB4, which would create an Election Integrity Unit within the Ohio Secretary of State’s office. The unit would have the authority to independently investigate allegations of voter fraud and suppression and refer these cases to state and local prosecutors. The bill is awaiting consideration in the state House.
- On June 16, a New Hampshire Senate committee agreed to state House amendments to SB287, a bill requiring additional verification for voters requesting an absentee ballot to be mailed to an address other than their official checklist address. Under New Hampshire law, municipalities maintain marked voter checklists that include voters’ names, addresses, party affiliations, and more. The bill now heads back to the full Senate for a final vote.
- On June 16, a three-judge panel heard arguments in a federal case regarding North Carolina’s congressional and legislative districts. The North Carolina NAACP and a group of North Carolina voters filed two separate lawsuits in 2023, alleging the state’s redrawn districts dilute the voting power of Black and Latino voters and violate the Voting Rights Act.
- On June 13, Republicans in Fulton County, Georgia, filed a lawsuit in the Superior Court of Fulton County alleging that the county’s Board of Commissioners blocked two GOP nominees to the County Board of Elections. Georgia law requires the commission to appoint two people to the board from each political party that received the most votes in the state.
Three bills were vetoed in the past week, and 61 have been vetoed this year. No bills were vetoed during this period in 2024, no bills were vetoed in 2023, and one bill was vetoed in 2022. To see all vetoed bills, click here.
A version of this story appeared in our June 20 Ballot Bulletin—our weekly email that follows developments in election policy around the country. Click here to sign up.