School board incumbents won by larger margins in 2024 than in their previous races

By

Ballotpedia staff

Welcome to the Monday, Sept. 29, Brew.

By: Briana Ryan

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. School board incumbents won by larger margins in 2024 than in their previous races
  2. Jackson County Executive Frank White Jr. to face recall election on Sept. 30
  3. Did you know that six states allow citizens to petition to form grand juries?

School board incumbents won by larger margins in 2024 than in their previous races

Tens of thousands of school board elections take place each year, and in many of those races, incumbents are running to stay in office. Let’s take a look at a sample of elections in 2024 to see how school board incumbents fared in their re-election bids.

In this analysis, we looked at 421 incumbents who ran in 2024 general elections in 362 school districts that fall within the 200 largest districts by student enrollment and the districts that overlap the 100 largest cities by population. While 727 incumbents ran in these districts, 306 lost, withdrew, or won outright in primaries.

Of the 421 incumbents in this analysis, 337 (80%) ran in contested general elections, meaning they faced one or more opponents, while 84 (20%) faced no competition and were automatically re-elected. Roughly half of the contested elections in this analysis were decided by 10 percentage points or fewer, showing how close many of these contests can be. 

Incumbents who were re-elected in contested general elections won by larger margins in 2024 than in their most recent previous races. In the 337 contested races, 247 incumbents won re-election. On average, those incumbents had an average margin of victory (MOV) of 16.1 percentage points—up from 13.9 percentage points in those same incumbents’ previous races.

For the purposes of this analysis, in multi-seat races, the MOV for individual winning candidates is the difference between each winner’s share of the vote and that of the top-placing losing candidate. About 30% of the incumbents in this analysis ran in multi-seat elections in which some number of at-large seats were on the ballot.

School board races featuring incumbents were generally more competitive than elections for other major U.S. offices

School board winners in the 337 contested elections—including both incumbents and challengers—won by narrower margins compared to those running in state legislative, U.S. House, and U.S. Senate elections.

  • U.S. Senate: 16.9 percentage points for 34 seats
  • U.S. House: 27.3 percentage points for 435 seats
  • State legislatures: 27.3 percentage points for 5,807 seats
  • School boards: 14.7 percentage points for 649 seats

In contested races with incumbents, margins grew in 18 states and shrank in seven compared to incumbents’ past wins

In 18 states, contested elections including incumbents were decided by larger margins than those incumbents’ previous races, regardless of whether incumbents held their seats or were defeated. In Oklahoma, for example, average margins rose from 25 percentage points in incumbents’ previous victories to 40 percentage points for all contested general elections in 2024.

In seven states, winning candidates’ margins were smaller than incumbents’ previous wins. In Virginia, average margins fell from 15 percentage points in incumbents’ previous elections to 2.75 percentage points for all contested general elections in 2024.

Roughly half of contested races were decided by 10 percentage points or fewer in 2024

We consider competitive races to be those with a MOV of less than 10 percentage points. In 2024, 171 of the 337 contested races—or 51%—met this criterion. In the 421 incumbents’ previous elections, 52% were decided by 10 percentage points or fewer. 

In the 247 contested races that incumbents won in 2024:

  • Thirty-five percent were decided by 10 percentage points or fewer. The average MOV in those races was 4.3 percentage points.
  • In those candidates’ most recent elections, ranging from 2016 to 2023, the average MOV was 7.3 percentage points. 

In the 90 contested races that challengers won in 2024, 16% were decided by 10 percentage points or fewer. The average MOV in those races was 4.3 percentage points. 

The most and least competitive races

Below, you’ll find the three elections in 2024 with the smallest MOVs:

Below, you’ll find the three elections with the largest MOVs:

Ballotpedia’s school board coverage

Ballotpedia provides comprehensive school board election coverage in the 200 largest school districts by student enrollment and the school districts that overlap the 100 largest cities by population. In 2024, we covered 1,058 races in 367 of those districts. 

We are expanding our coverage each year with an eye on the country’s more than 80,000 school board seats. In 2024, Ballotpedia covered more than 25,000 elections that fell outside our traditional scope. This year, our coverage includes comprehensive school board election coverage in 25 states.  

Click here to learn more about 2024 school board incumbent election results and MOVs. 

Jackson County Executive Frank White, Jr. to face recall election on Sept. 30

As part of our ongoing coverage of local elections happening across the United States this year, we’re spotlighting the Sept. 30 recall election in Jackson County, Missouri, against County Executive Frank White, Jr. (D)

The Kansas City Star’s Mike Hendricks wrote that the effort “grew out of taxpayers’ dissatisfaction with how White and county assessment director Gail McCann Beatty set values on real estate for property tax purposes during the biennial reassessment cycle in 2023.”

Democracy in Action, the group that started the recall effort, states on its website, “This recall is about restoring trust, protecting our community, and electing leadership that works for the people — not against them.”

In response to the recall effort, White wrote in a statement, “This recall isn’t about public service; it’s about private gain. It’s being driven by those who want county government to work for them, not the people. But I was elected to serve taxpayers, not special interests and I won’t be bullied into selling out the residents of Jackson County.”

If voters recall White, the position will become vacant until Jackson County Legislature Chair DaRon McGee (D) appoints a 30-day replacement. Then the County Legislature will decide who will serve the remainder of White’s term. White has said he will not seek re-election in November 2026.

This election is one of the 50 recall efforts that have made the ballot this year—37 have already happened, and 13 have yet to happen. Of the 37 recall elections that have already happened, voters recalled 30 officials and defeated recalls for seven.

Here’s how those figures compare to previous years.

Click here for more information about White’s recall election and here to view our full list of political recall efforts from 2010 to today.

Did you know that six states allow citizens to petition to form grand juries?

A grand jury is a group of citizens brought together—“impaneled,” in the standard wording—to consider if there is probable cause to formally charge someone accused of a crime. Courts, typically at the request of prosecutors, impanel grand juries. 

Kansas, New Mexico, North Dakota, Nebraska, Nevada, and Oklahoma, however, provide for a process known as a “citizen-initiated grand jury,” in which citizens can collect signatures to call for the formation of a grand jury. If citizens collect the required number of signatures, a judge must summon a grand jury to investigate the alleged crime.

Signature requirements vary by state. In Kansas, for example, the law requires citizens to collect “100 plus 2% of the total number of votes cast for governor in the county in the last preceding election.” In Nevada, by contrast, the threshold is “25% of the number of voters voting within the county at the last preceding general election.”

Click here to learn more about states with citizen-initiated grand juries, including examples and arguments for and against.