Welcome to the Monday, July 8, Brew.
By: Briana Ryan
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- 76% of June’s elections were uncontested
- Two candidates are running in the July 30 Republican primary for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District
- Biden issued one executive order about supply chains in June
76% of June’s elections were uncontested
As part of Ballotpedia’s growing coverage of the nation’s local elections (with a goal of covering all of them), we will be issuing monthly reports on the results, trends, and emerging issues we discover.In case you missed it, here’s a link to our May report.
Today, we’re looking at the elections we covered in June. Of the 5,065 elections we covered in 25 states, 76% were uncontested. In May 70% of the 5,799 covered were uncontested.
We define an uncontested election as one where the number of candidates running is less than or equal to the number of seats up for election. This analysis includes primary and general elections and does not account for write-in candidates. In other words, there is ultimately no alternative choice for a voter.
In June, we covered more than 500 elections in Maine, New York, Puerto Rico, and South Carolina. New York had the highest rate of uncontested elections, at 94%. South Carolina had the lowest rate, at 54%. Of the 10 states in which we covered more than 200 elections so far this year, New York and South Carolina still have the highest and lowest rates, respectively.
June’s uncontested election rate was greater than the 58% average rate identified between 2018 and 2023. It also brings the year-to-date uncontested election rate to 73%. More elections have gone uncontested every year, except one, since we began monitoring the data in 2018.
Local judicial elections have had the least competition so far this year. To date, we have covered 170 such elections, 143 (84%) of which were uncontested.
And that trend appears poised to continue through the rest of the year.
While we are still gathering candidate information for upcoming elections, based on the data available today, we’ll have covered a total of 3,583 local judicial elections by the end of the year. Of those, 3,174 (89%) were or will be uncontested.
Two candidates are running in the July 30 Republican primary for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District
Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections—the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive.
Today, we’re looking at the July 30 Republican primary for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District between incumbent Rep. Eli Crane (R) and Jack Smith (R).
Crane was one of eight House Republicans who voted to remove Kevin McCarthy (R) as Speaker of the House in October 2023. According to Politico, McCarthy allies identified Crane as one of three Republicans most vulnerable to a primary challenge as part of an effort “to marshal the former speaker’s considerable donor network on behalf of Republican primary candidates who are deemed strong enough to pose a credible threat to one of the eight.”
Crane’s experience and platform
Crane is a veteran and the owner of Bottle Breacher, a manufacturing business. Crane was first elected in 2022 after he defeated incumbent Tom O’Halleran (D) in the general election, 53.9% to 46.1%. Crane says his priorities are securing the border, expanding care for veterans, opposing instruction in Critical Race Theory and similar initiatives in schools and the military, and lowering rates of taxation and spending.
- Crane said he is being “targeted by the uniparty for fighting for AZ-02…Once they realize you’re not going to join their team, they move to get rid of you however they can.”
Smith’s experience and platform
Smith is a veteran and the Risk and Safety Manager at Yavapai College. Smith was a member of the Yavapai County Board of Supervisors and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Arizona State Director of Rural Development. Smith says his priorities are securing the border, ensuring election results reflected the votes cast by qualified voters, fighting “to end the cancer of wokeness that has infected so much of our society,” reducing rates of taxation and spending, and supporting the military and veterans.
- Smith criticized Crane for living in a suburb of Tucson, saying, “We need a conservative who understands rural Arizona and is willing to fight for rural Arizona.”
Fundraising and endorsements
- As of March 31, Crane had raised $3,935,292, while Smith had raised $1,350.
- Former President Donald Trump (R), Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), and Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) endorsed Crane. The Arizona Police Association and former Arizona Senate President Steve Pierce (R) endorsed Smith.
- AZCentral reported that Crane said in a fundraising email, “Kevin McCarthy recently recruited an ambitious guy named Jack Smith to primary me. Nobody in the district asked him to run — just a corrupt swamp creature who’s bitter that he lost his grip on power.” Smith said he has never met McCarthy but would be willing to work with him: “… If you want to just throw at me that I’m a McCarthy guy, that’s great. I would happily join with Kevin McCarthy if he wanted to join the team to help us get some reality back to the district.”
What’s next?
- The primary election is July 30. The Democratic primary is uncontested, and the nominee, Jonathan Nez (D), will face the Republican primary winner in November.
- As of July 3, 2024, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales rated the general election Solid Republican. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the general election Safe Republican.
Biden issued one executive order about supply chains in June
President Joe Biden (D) issued one executive order in June, bringing his total to 139.
The one order he issued in June was:
Biden issued 25 executive orders in January 2021, more than any other month of his presidency. He did not issue any executive orders in November 2022, January 2023, January 2024, and May 2024.
Biden has issued an average of 40 executive orders per year in office, the third-lowest average among the seven presidents who have held office since 1981. Donald Trump (R) averaged 55 executive orders per year, the most in that time. Barack Obama (D) averaged 35 per year, the fewest in that time.
Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) issued an average of 307 executive orders per year in office, the most of all U.S. presidents. William Henry Harrison (Whig) averaged the fewest, issuing none during his one month in office. Three presidents issued only one executive order each: James Madison (Democratic-Republican), James Monroe (Democratic-Republican), and John Adams (Federalist).