Welcome to the Tuesday, Aug. 20, 2024, Brew.
By: Ethan Rice
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Abortion, minimum wage, and sports betting on the ballot this fall in Missouri
- 136 state legislative incumbents have been defeated in primaries this year – four of whom were legislative leaders
- Upcoming voter participation deadlines
Abortion, minimum wage, and sports betting on the ballot this fall in Missouri
On Aug. 13, Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft (R) certified three ballot measures on abortion, minimum wage, and sports betting. The measures on abortion and sports betting are initiated constitutional amendments, while the minimum wage measure is an initiated state statute.
Abortion
The Missouri Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative would amend the Missouri Constitution to provide a state constitutional right for reproductive freedom. This is defined as “the right to make and carry out decisions about all matters relating to reproductive health care, including but not limited to prenatal care, childbirth, postpartum care, birth control, abortion care, miscarriage care, and respectful birthing conditions.”
The proposed amendment would allow the Legislature to regulate abortion after fetal viability. Fetal viability is defined in the initiative as “in the good faith judgment of a treating health care professional and based on the particular facts of the case, there is a significant likelihood of the fetus’s sustained survival outside the uterus without the application of extraordinary medical measures.”
Voters in 11 states could vote on abortion-related ballot measures in November. Measures are certified in eight states—Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, New York, Nevada, and South Dakota. This is the most on record for a single year. Initiatives are also pending signature verification or lawsuits in Arkansas, Montana, and Nebraska.
Minimum Wage and Earned Paid Sick Time
The Missouri Minimum Wage and Earned Paid Sick Time Initiative would increase the minimum wage to $13.75 per hour in 2025 and $15 per hour in 2026. It would also require employers to provide one hour of paid sick leave for every 30 hours worked.
The initiative would require businesses with 15 or fewer employees to provide at least five paid sick days per year, while those with more than 15 employees must offer at least seven paid sick days annually. Employees can use this sick leave for their own illnesses or to care for family members.
The minimum wage in Missouri is currently $12.30 per hour. This was established when voters approved Proposition B 62.3% to 37.7% in 2018, which increased the minimum wage each year until reaching $12 in 2023 and then made increases or decreases based on changes in the Consumer Price Index. Voters approved another ballot measure, also called Proposition B, 75.9% to 24.1% in 2006. It raised the state minimum wage to the level of the federal minimum wage.
Sports Betting
The Missouri Sports Betting Initiative would allow for each of the state’s professional sports teams and casinos to offer sports betting, either on-site or through online platforms that could be used anywhere in the state. It would levy a 10% tax on adjusted gross sports betting revenue after the payout of winnings and promotional bets to customers. From the tax revenue, $5 million would go to a fund to help compulsive gamblers, while the rest would go to public schools and higher education programs.
Some form of sports betting is legal in 38 states and the District of Columbia, while online betting is legal in 30 states. In 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court’s Murphy v. NCAA decision allowed states to legalize sports betting within their borders. Five of the states that legalized sports betting—Arkansas, Colorado, Maryland, New Jersey, and South Dakota—did so through a ballot measure.
Seven total statewide ballot measures have been certified for the 2024 ballot in Missouri. Click here
to learn more about these measures
136 state legislative incumbents have been defeated in primaries this year – four of whom were legislative leaders
In the 37 states that have held primaries so far this year, 136 state legislative incumbents—3.4% of all incumbents seeking re-election—have lost. That’s less than at this point in 2022, when 174, or 4.6%, of incumbents had lost in primaries. Four of the 136 defeated incumbents were legislative leaders: three Republican state senators and one Democratic House member.
Last week, Connecticut, Hawaii, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin held state legislative primary elections. Here’s what you need to know.
The majority of incumbents won in Connecticut, Minnesota, and Vermont.
- In Connecticut, CT Insider‘s Alex Putterman said, “Tuesday was a fairly good night for incumbent Democrats in the state legislature, most of whom won their primaries. In one major exception, endorsed Democrat Jonathan Jacobson defeated incumbent Rep. Anabel Figueroa of Stamford … Otherwise, though, it was relatively smooth sailing for incumbents.”
- In Minnesota, the Star Tribune‘s Briana Bierschbach said, “Seven incumbents in the Minnesota House were also facing challengers, and six of them prevailed, including longtime Rep. Greg Davids, R-Preston, who has chaired the chamber’s Tax Committee in the past. DFL Rep. Brion Curran, DFL-White Bear Lake, fended off a challenger, as did GOP Reps. Dawn Gillman, Ron Kresha and Jeff Backer.” The Minnesota Senate did not hold elections this year.
- In Vermont, Seven Days‘ Kevin McCallum wrote, “Vermont’s Incumbents Dominate in Legislative Primary Races: From Chittenden County to Brattleboro, office-holders proved tough to dislodge in the primaries.”
However, the same can’t be said in Hawaii and Wisconsin.
- In Hawaii, Kim Coco Iwamoto (D) defeated House Speaker Scott Saiki (D) 52.5%-47.5%. Saiki was first elected in 1994 and has served as speaker since May 2017. Spectrum News‘ Michael Tsai said local media expected a close race between Saiki and Iwamoto after the two candidates had competed against each other in the previous two election years. Tsai said, “Saiki had defeated Iwamoto by less than 200 votes in each of the last two elections.”
- In Wisconsin, four House incumbents (all Republicans) lost in primaries. This was the highest number of incumbent defeats since we began gathering this data in 2010. As of Aug. 14, one House race featuring an incumbent remained uncalled. No incumbents lost in the Senate.
- Wisconsin Examiner‘s Baylor Spears wrote, “Voters across Wisconsin weighed in Tuesday on the first primary elections under the state’s new legislative maps. The maps were adopted earlier this year after the state Supreme Court ruled the previous maps unconstitutional.” Because of this redistricting, Spears added, “[some] sitting lawmakers were in direct competition with one another.”
Saiki was one of four legislative leaders defeated this year. The others included Idaho Senate President Pro Tempore Chuck Winder (R), Oklahoma Senate Majority Leader Greg McCortney (R), and West Virginia Senate President Craig Blair (R). To read more about their elections, click here.
As of Aug. 14, 14 primaries with incumbents remained uncalled.
Republican incumbents have lost at a higher rate than Democrats. Of the 2,248 Republican incumbents who ran for re-election, 107 (4.8%) have lost to primary challengers. For Democrats, 29 of the 1,723 who ran for re-election (1.7%) have lost.
Upcoming voter participation deadlines
Six states have important primary election voter participation deadlines in the next two weeks. Voter participation deadlines include voter registration deadlines, early voting end dates, and deadlines to request and return absentee/mail-in ballots.
The following states have voter participation deadlines between Aug. 20 and Sept. 3, 2024:
- Alaska: Early voting ends Aug. 20. Deadline to return an absentee/mail-in ballot (in person or postmarked) Aug. 20.
- Florida: Deadline to return an absentee/mail-in ballot Aug. 20.
- Massachusetts: Voter registration deadline Aug. 24. Deadline to request an absentee/mail-in ballot Aug. 26. Early voting ends Aug. 30. Deadline to return an absentee/mail-in ballot Sept. 3.
- Oklahoma (primary runoff): Early voting ends Aug. 24. Deadline to return an absentee/mail-in ballot Aug. 27.
- Rhode Island: Deadline to request an absentee/mail-in ballot Aug. 20.
- Wyoming: Voter registration deadline (in-person) Aug. 20. Deadline to return an absentee/mail-in ballot Aug. 20.
Looking ahead
We’ll bring you all the voter participation information you need for the 2024 election cycle, so stay tuned!
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