79 percent of August’s elections were uncontested

By

Ballotpedia staff

Welcome to the Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2024 Brew. 

By: Ethan Sorell

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. 79 percent of August’s elections were uncontested
  2. Elissa Slotkin (D), Mike Rogers (R), and five others to compete in the open general election for U.S. Senate in Michigan
  3. The end of primary season

79 percent of August’s elections were uncontested

Each month, Ballotpedia publishes an article detailing the number and percentage of uncontested races in the previous month. Throughout August, Ballotpedia covered 11,320 elections in 21 states, 79% of which were uncontested. That brings the year-to-date rate of uncontested elections to 75%. 

Since 2018, each year has had more uncontested than contested elections except for one. In 2021, 50.4% of elections in Ballotpedia’s coverage scope were uncontested. 

Understanding the data and its implications

An uncontested election is one where the number of candidates running is less than or equal to the number of seats up for election. Our analysis covers both primaries and general elections–any opportunity that voters have to cast a ballot. It does not account for write-in candidates.  

Why are so many elections uncontested, and what does this mean for the democratic process? 

Looking at local elections only, CivicPulse, a nonprofit research organization, suggests the following reasons for declining competition: 

  • low voter turnout;
  • a decline in local news and professional reporting;
  • elections being scheduled at times other than November of even-numbered years to capitalize on lower voter turnout; and
  • partisan strongholds that dissuade opposite-party challengers.

In an interview with The Texas Tribune‘s Regina Mack, Democratic strategist Harold Cook gave three reasons for the large number of uncontested state and congressional elections: “The incumbent is so popular that no one else can find a path to victory. The district is so tilted in favor of the other party that nobody in the opposing party can find a path to victory. The incumbent’s campaign has so much money that nobody can figure out how to overcome their ability to communicate with voters.”

Illinois Policy Institute, a nonprofit think tank that researches education policy, pension policy, and state budget issues, published a report detailing their views on why high uncontested rates stifle the democratic process: “The lack of candidate alternatives on the ballot reduces voter participation…as the number of candidates on a ballot increases, electoral participation also increases…Voters benefit from having clearly differentiated options at the polls on election day, and having a choice in their elected officials gives them a reason to turn out to the polls… Uncontested and lightly contested elections tend to skew policy in favor of powerful special interest groups at the expense of everyone else. This is because low voter participation makes legislators more susceptible to the influence of lobbyists rather than prioritizing the service of ordinary voters.”

Diving back into the data

As previously mentioned, 79% of elections in August were uncontested. That’s up from July, when 67% of the 560 elections Ballotpedia covered were uncontested.

During August, Ballotpedia covered more than 500 elections in Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Of those, the greatest number of elections were covered in Michigan, where 80% of the 6,905 elections covered were uncontested. Florida had the least uncontested elections of those states at 73% of 649 total elections.

August’s rate of uncontested elections was greater than the 58% average rate identified between 2018 and 2023.

Click on the link below to learn more about uncontested elections nationwide last month and in all previous months through 2024.

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Elissa Slotkin (D), Mike Rogers (R), and five others to compete in the open general election for U.S. Senate in Michigan

Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections — the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here. 

Elissa Slotkin (D), Mike Rogers (R), and five others are running in the open general election for the U.S. Senate in Michigan on Nov. 5. Incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D), who was first elected in 2000, is not running for re-election. The Detroit Free Press’ Todd Spangler wrote, “The last time a Senate seat was open in Michigan was in 2014. Republicans sense a chance to win this year but if they do, it will mark the first time since 1994 a Democrat has lost a U.S. Senate race in the state.”

Slotkin’s experience and platform

Slotkin received a bachelor’s degree from Cornell University and a master’s degree from Columbia University. Slotkin was a Middle East analyst with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and a senior advisor on Middle East transition with the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. 

Slotkin was elected to the U.S. House in 2018, and said she is running for the Senate because “We need a new generation of leaders that thinks differently, works harder, and never forgets that we are public servants first.” 

  • On gun safety, Slotkin’s campaign website says she supports “safe storage of firearms, universal background checks, red flag laws, and the assault weapons ban.”
  • Regarding healthcare, Slotkin’s campaign website says she “believes all Americans should have access to healthcare they can afford, regardless of pre-existing conditions.” Slotkin said she “fought to pass laws that capped the cost of insulin for seniors, and allowed Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices.”
  • Slotkin said she “made defending and expanding voting rights, civil rights, LGBTQ rights, and women’s rights a priority in her time in public office.”
  • Slotkin said she “has led the charge to ban corporate PACs and pushed leaders in both parties to ban Members of Congress from trading stocks.”

Rogers’ experience and platform

Rogers worked as a special agent with the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), on cybersecurity, and at a radio station. Rogers represented Michigan’s 8th Congressional District from 2001 to 2015.

Rogers said he is running because of the state of the government: “I thought I put politics behind me. But like you, I know something’s broken.” Rogers also said his experience in the U.S. House would help him in the Senate: “No candidate is better prepared to have an impact on day one.” 

  • On border security, Rogers said he would support “immediately reinstating the Trump administration’s ‘Remain in Mexico’ policy for asylum seekers, restarting the construction of physical barriers in places that make sense, hiring additional border protection personnel, and utilizing technology to locate illegal crossings.”
  • Rogers said he would support stopping “the spending in Washington that drove up prices” and prioritizing “an all-of-the-above American energy policy that lowers gas prices and strengthens our hand with China.”
  • Regarding small businesses, Rogers said he would work to “get government out of the way so small businesses can thrive.”
  • On public safety, Rogers said, “As a former FBI field agent who took down organized crime, I know we can restore faith and pride into our legal system and support our law enforcement by taking political agendas out of justice.”

Campaign finance

According to second-quarter Federal Election Commission filings, Slotkin raised $24.1 million and spent $15.3 million, and Rogers raised $5.3 million and spent $2.9 million.

Other candidates on the ballot

Douglas Marsh (Green), Joseph Solis-Mullen (Libertarian), Doug Dern (Natural Law), Dave Stein (U.S. Taxpayers), and James Frizzell (Independent) are also running.

This is one of eight open races for the U.S. Senate in 2024 where an incumbent is not running for re-election. Across the country, four Democrats, two Republicans, and two Independents are not running for re-election. In 2022, six Senators did not seek re-election, including one Democrat and five Republicans.

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The end of primary season

Yesterday’s primaries in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island were the last of the 2024 primary season. Let’s take a look back at a few highlights from this year’s primaries in 49 states (not including Louisiana). 

Calendar highlights

Click here for a full calendar of statewide primaries from this year. 

Competitiveness in congressional and statewide primaries

  • As of Sept. 9, An average of 2.2 candidates filed per seat across federal and statewide offices. An average of 2.4 candidates filed per seat over the three preceding election years.
    • In statewide primaries, 12,081 candidates ran for 5,890 seats, averaging 2.05 candidates per seat.
    • In congressional primaries,  1,993 candidates ran for 469 seats, averaging 4.25 candidates running per seat. 
  • Of the 6,356 congressional and statewide seats and offices, 16.6% are open. Over the three preceding election years, an average of 19.5% of offices were open.
  • Of all possible primaries, 19.2% were contested. The average rate of contested primaries for the three preceding cycles was 22.7%.
  •  Of the 5,297 incumbents who ran for re-election, 24.1% faced contested primaries. An average of 25.9% of incumbents were contested in primaries over the three preceding election years.

Partisanship breakdowns of various levels of government

  • Republicans have a 220-211 majority in the U.S. House, with four vacancies. All 435 seats in the U.S. House are up for election this year. 
  • Democrats have a majority in Congress. There are 47 Democratic Senators and 49 Republican Senators. Three independents caucus with the Democratic Party. Another independent, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, counts toward the Democratic majority for committee purposes. Thirty-four seats in the U.S. Senate are up for election this year.
  • Across state legislatures, Republicans control 54.83% of all state legislative seats nationally, while Democrats control 44.25%. Republicans have majorities in 56 chambers, and Democrats have majorities in 41 chambers. Two chambers (Alaska House and Alaska Senate) were organized under multipartisan, power-sharing coalitions.
  • In the 50 states, there are 99 state legislative chambers altogether. Forty-four states are holding regular legislative elections across 85 of those chambers are holding regular legislative elections in 2024. These elections are for 5,807 of the country’s 7,386 state legislative seats (79%).

Looking ahead…be sure to check out Ballotpedia’s continued coverage of Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government. In the coming month, we will also publish articles on the following topics:

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