Welcome to the Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024, Brew.
By: Ethan Rice
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Less than 2% of state legislative incumbents lost (so far)
- Presidential voting accuracy by state—which state is the most accurate?
- A look at new members of Congress so far
Less than 2% of state legislative incumbents lost (so far)
Here’s an early glimpse into the state of incumbents defeated in state legislative elections. We’ll be publishing a full report later this month, but in the meantime, here’s a snapshot of what we know.
Thus far, 85 (1.8%) state legislative incumbents have been defeated out of 4,678. This includes 63 Democrats, 21 Republicans, and one other candidate who was neither a Democrat nor a Republican. Two hundred sixty-two (5.6%) of the general election races with an incumbent candidate remain uncalled.
The fewest state legislative incumbents defeated in any previous even-year election cycle going back to 2010 was in 2022, when 179 (3.9%) incumbents were defeated. The fewest defeated Republican incumbents was in 2010 at 12 (2.4% of incumbents defeated that year), and the fewest number of defeated Democrats was in 2018 at 51 (16% of incumbents defeated that year).
Vermont has the current highest number of incumbents defeated at 17, followed by New Hampshire with 10. Twelve states—Arkansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, and Wyoming—have the fewest among states with at least one incumbent defeated, with one each.
In 2020, the last year all 44 of the same states held state legislative elections, 225 (4.7%) of state legislative incumbents were defeated. This included 165 Democrats, 51 Republicans, and nine other candidates who were neither Democrats nor Republicans.
That year, New Hampshire had the highest number of incumbents defeated at 37, followed by Maine and West Virginia with 11 each. Three states—Missouri, Oregon, and Utah—had the fewest among states with at least one incumbent defeated, with one each.
As we continue to process data from this month’s elections, you can stay updated on state legislative election results by clicking the link below.
Presidential voting accuracy by state—which state is the most accurate?
When it comes to picking presidential winners, which state is most accurate? Across elections held between 2000 and 2024, three states had an accuracy above 80%: Florida, Nevada, and Ohio. Three states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are tied for the longest accuracy streak at five elections each. Each of those three states (and those are the only three states) have successfully gone for the winning candidate from 2008-2024. They did not go for the winning candidate in 2000 and 2004.
In the seven presidential elections held between 2000 and 2024, 22 states had a presidential voting accuracy of 57.1%, and 16 states had a presidential voting accuracy of 42.9%. The majority of these states voted for the same party in each of the most recent seven election cycles.
Ohio historically was considered a bellwether state because it was 100% accurate in every presidential election cycle between 1964 and 2016 and also voted for the winner in 2024. Ohio was also the most accurate state between 1900 and 2024, voting for the winning candidate 90.6% of the time. In 2020, Ohio broke its five-decade streak, voting for President Donald Trump (R) rather than the winner, former Vice President Joe Biden (D). Mississippi was the least accurate state between 1900 and 2024, voting for the winning candidate 46.9% of the time.
Between 1900 and 2024, five states had a presidential voting accuracy rating above 80%:
- Ohio (90.6%)
- Nevada (87.5%)
- New Mexico (86.2%)
- Missouri (84.4%)
- Illinois (81.3%)
Not all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated in all 31 elections between 1900 and 2024. The following jurisdictions are exceptions:
- Alaska: First presidential election was in 1960 (17 elections)
- Arizona: First presidential election was in 1912 (29 elections)
- District of Columbia: First presidential election was in 1964 (16 elections)
- Hawaii: First presidential election was in 1960 (17 elections)
- New Mexico: First presidential election was in 1912 (29 elections)
- Oklahoma: First presidential election was in 1908 (30 elections)
In some presidential elections, states have split their electoral votes between candidates. From 2000 to 2024, two states have also split their vote, such as Nebraska in 2008, 2020, and 2024, and Maine in 2016, 2020, and 2024.
Click the link below to learn more about presidential voting trends by state.
A look at new members of Congress so far
As of the current election results on November 11, at least 68 new members of Congress will be sworn in next year, including 12 members of the U.S. Senate and 56 members of the U.S. House. There were 64 new members in 2022 (excluding the 20 members who joined the U.S. House due to redistricting), 71 in 2020, 102 in 2018, and 62 in 2016. Ten U.S. House races remain uncalled.
- Twelve new members—including six Democrats and six Republicans—joined the U.S. Senate to replace eight Democrats, two Republicans, and two Independent incumbents who either announced they would not seek re-election, were appointed to other offices, or were defeated. The Republican Party gained four seats in the U.S. Senate for these reasons. In 2022, seven new members joined the U.S. Senate, and the Democratic Party gained one seat.
- Thirty new members—including 13 Democrats and 17 Republicans—joined the U.S. House to replace 14 Democrats and 16 Republicans who either announced they would not seek re-election in 2024, withdrew from their races, or passed away while in office. The Republican Party gained one seat in the U.S. House for these reasons. In 2022, 23 new members joined the U.S. House to replace members who either announced they would not seek re-election, withdrew from their races, or passed away while in office, and the Republican Party gained five seats for these reasons.
- Seventeen new members—including 10 Democrats and seven Republicans—joined the U.S. House to replace nine Democrats and eight Republicans who ran for other offices instead of seeking re-election this year. The Democratic Party gained one seat in the U.S. House due to incumbents seeking other offices. In 2022, 18 new members joined the U.S. House to replace members who ran for other offices instead of seeking re-election. That year, the Republican Party gained two seats due to incumbents seeking other offices.
- Nine new members—including six Democrats and three Republicans—joined the U.S. House to replace four Democrats and five Republicans who lost their races for re-election this year in either primary or general elections. The Democratic Party gained two seats in the U.S. House by defeating incumbents. In 2022, 16 new members joined the U.S. House to replace members who lost their races for re-election, and neither party gained seats in the U.S. House by defeating incumbents.
As we continue to monitor uncalled congressional races, you can stay updated with the latest congressional election results by clicking here.