Welcome to the Monday, November 18, Brew.
By: Briana Ryan
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Nevada voters must approve two ballot measures again due to the state’s two-election requirement
- Over 80% of incumbents in close primaries won their general election races
- A look at the state of the U.S. Senate recount in Pennsylvania
Nevada voters must approve two ballot measures again due to the state’s two-election requirement
Nevada voters approved Question 6 and Question 7 on Nov. 5. Question 6 would establish a state constitutional right to an abortion, and Question 7 would establish voter ID requirements in the state.
Voters will now see the exact same questions in 2026. If voters once again approve the measures, they will then become part of the state constitution.
In Nevada, citizen-initiated constitutional amendments—like Questions 6 and 7—must be approved in two successive general elections to be ratified. This is known as a two-election approval requirement. Nevada is the only state with a two-election requirement for initiated constitutional amendments.
The requirement was established in 1962 when voters approved Question 2. This replaced the indirect citizen initiative process for constitutional amendments with the direct process and required that citizen-initiated constitutional amendments be approved at two successive general elections. Voters approved Question 2 56% to 43%.
Following 1962, the first initiated constitutional amendment to be approved was in 1980, triggering the two-vote requirement for the first time. That measure had to be approved a second time in 1982.
Since 1980, voters have approved 19 constitutional amendments at least once. Excluding Question 6 and Question 7 from 2024, which must be approved again in 2026, voters approved 13 of 17 (76.5%) and rejected four (23.5%) during the second vote. The rejected measures were Question 9 from 1982, Question 9B from 1996, Question 3 from 2018, and Question 3 from 2024.
Question 3, which would have established top-five primaries and ranked-choice voting for general elections, is the most recent of the four measures to be rejected. In 2022, Question 3 received 53% of the vote and then received 47% in 2024.
Looking back at past results for ballot measures under this requirement, the share of votes to approve amendments for a second time declined for 14 of 17 (82.4%) measures, with an average drop of 8.7 percentage points.
- Question 3, which addressed energy regulations in 2016 and 2018, was the ballot measure with the largest decline. In 2016, Question 3 received 72.4% of the vote. In 2018, it received 33.0%, a 39.4 percentage point decrease.
- The ballot measure with the largest vote increase between elections was Question 9, which legalized medical marijuana in 1998 and 2000. In 1998, Question 9 received 58.7%, and in 2000, it received 65.4%.
While Nevada is the only state with the two-election approval requirement, voters have decided on ballot measures to establish this requirement in North Dakota and Florida. On Nov. 5, voters rejected North Dakota Constitutional Amendment 2, which would have required that initiated constitutional amendments be approved at a primary and succeeding general election, among other changes. In 2020, North Dakota voters also rejected a two-election proposal. Florida voters rejected Amendment 4, which would have required constitutional amendments to be approved at two general elections in 2020.
More than 80% of incumbents in close primaries won in the general election
More than three-quarters of incumbents who won their primaries by five percentage points or fewer, or with a plurality, won in general election races for congressional, state, and local offices.
A margin of victory is the difference between the share of votes cast for the winning candidate and the second-place candidate in an election. For example, if Candidate A wins an election with 55 percent of the vote and Candidate B, the second-place finisher, wins 45 percent of the vote, the winner’s margin of victory is 10 percentage points.
A plurality is when one candidate receives more votes than any other candidate but does not receive more than half of the total number of votes.
Incumbents who won primaries by five percentage points or fewer
There were a total of 105 incumbents running in congressional, state, and local primaries which were decided by five percentage points or fewer and 324 races were decided with a plurality.
Of the races decided by five percentage points or fewer, four were congressional races, one was state executive, 80 were state legislative, four were state judicial, and 16 were local. The average primary margin of victory across these races was 2.7 percentage points. The average percentage of the primary vote share was 34.4%.
Ninety-one (86.7%) of these incumbents won in the general election. Eleven incumbents were unopposed in the general election. The average margin of victory for winning incumbents was 25.4 percentage points. The smallest general election margin of victory for winning incumbents was 0.4 percentage points.
Sixty-nine (92%) of the 75 Republican incumbents and 16 (84.2%) of the 19 Democratic incumbents who won their primaries by five percentage points or fewer won re-election. Nine incumbents were nonpartisan, and four of them (44.4%) won re-election.
Incumbents who won primaries with a plurality
Of the races decided by a plurality, 13 were congressional races, nine were state executive, 216 were state legislative, four were state judicial, and 82 were local. The average primary margin of victory across these races was 15.4 percentage points, and the average percentage of the primary vote share was 34.3 percentage points.
Two hundred sixty-three (81.1%) of these incumbents won in the general election. Of these, 29 incumbents were unopposed in the general election. The average margin of victory for winning incumbents was 18 percentage points. The smallest general election margin of victory for winning incumbents was 0.4 percentage points.
One hundred forty-nine (93.1%) of the 160 Republican incumbents and 69 (87.3%) of the 79 Democratic incumbents who won primaries with a plurality won re-election. Eighty incumbents were nonpartisan, and 42 (52.5%) won re-election.
A look at the state of the U.S. Senate recount in Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania’s Department of State announced that the unofficial results in the state’s U.S. Senate race triggered an automatic recount. This race is one of about 20 recounts at congressional and state levels that we identified following the elections on Nov. 5.
Forty-eight states have recount provision. Automatic recounts are possible in 27, and requested recounts are possible in 43. Pennsylvania is one of six states whose recount laws only include provisions for automatic recounts.
In Pennsylvania, automatic recounts are required if the margin for a statewide office or ballot measure is less than or equal to 0.5 percentage points. Based on the unofficial results, Dave McCormick (R) defeated incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) by 0.43 percentage points.
This is the eighth recount to be triggered in Pennsylvania since the state’s recount law went into effect in 2004. In three of those cases, the candidate who came in second place waived the recount. In four cases, the recount did not change the election outcome.
From 2000 to 2019, there were 31 recounts in statewide races across the country. Three of those recounts resulted in a different outcome. An average of 430 votes shifted in those recounts, accounting for 0.024 percent of those races’ votes.
Since 2000, there have been two U.S. Senate general election recounts. In the 2018 general election in Florida, Rick Scott(R) led Bill Nelson (D) by 0.14 percentage points. An automatic recount affirmed that Scott defeated Nelson by 0.2 percentage points. Ten years earlier, another recount resulted in a different outcome. In the 2008 general election in Minnesota, Norm Coleman (R) led Al Franken (D) by 206 votes. After an automatic recount, Franken won the contest by 312 votes.
Pennsylvania counties will begin the recount on Nov. 20 and end it on Nov. 26. The state’s Secretary of State will publish the results on Nov. 27.