Welcome to the Thursday, November 21, Brew.
By: Lara Bonatesta
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Projected MOV changes by state
- Voters elected 11 governors this year – here’s where they stand on K-12 education
- Joshua Spivak, author of Recall Elections Blog, joins this week’s On The Ballot to discuss this year’s recall landscape
Projected MOV changes by state
According to election returns as of Nov. 19, President-elect Donald Trump (R) has outperformed his 2020 margins in every state and the District of Columbia. These margins may shift as final vote counts are certified.
The five states with the largest swings toward Trump between 2020 and 2024 were New York (+11.4 percentage points), New Jersey (+10.1), Florida (+9.8), Massachusetts (+8.7), and California (+8.5). Of these, Trump won Florida, and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) won the rest. Between 2016 and 2020, Florida and California swung toward Trump by 2.1 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, while Democrats increased their margins of victory by 0.7 percentage points in New York, 1.8 in New Jersey, and 6.3 in Massachusetts. Florida is the only one of these states with a Republican trifecta government, while the other four have Democratic trifectas.
Four states and D.C. had the narrowest swings towards Trump between 2020 and 2024: Washington (+0.7 percentage points), Utah (+0.9), the District of Columbia (+1.0), Oklahoma (+1.2), and Nebraska (+1.4). Trump won the statewide vote in Utah, Oklahoma, and Nebraska, while Harris won in Washington and D.C. Between 2016 and 2020, Trump increased his margin of victory in Utah by 2.5 percentage points, and Democrats increased their margin of victory in Washington by 3.2 percentage points. Democrats’ margin of victory decreased by 0.1 percentage points in D.C. between 2016 and 2020, while Trump’s margins in Nebraska and Oklahoma decreased by 5.9 and 3.3 percentage points, respectively. Of these states, Washington has a Democratic trifecta, while Nebraska, Utah, and Oklahoma have Republican trifectas.
In the 2020 presidential election, President Joe Biden (D) outperformed Hillary Clinton’s (D) 2016 margins in 41 states. Of these, the five states with the highest combined changes in margins of victory between 2016 and 2020 and 2020 and 2024, or therefore the largest swings, were Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, Maryland, and New York.
Trump won all seven presidential battleground states in 2024. In the battleground states, Trump’s margins improved the most in Arizona (+5.8 percentage points) and Nevada (+5.5 percentage points). Trump also improved his margin by 4.2 percentage points in Michigan, 3.0 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and 2.4 percentage points in Georgia. North Carolina and Wisconsin had the narrowest shifts toward Trump, moving 1.9 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, toward Trump. See the chart below for a full overview of changes in margins of victory in each state between 2020 and 2024.
Comparing Trump’s 2016 and 2024 margins in the seven battleground states, Trump improved his margins the most in Nevada (+5.5 percentage points), followed by Arizona (+1.9), Michigan (+1.2), Pennsylvania (+1.1), and Wisconsin (+0.2). North Carolina and Georgia shifted towards Democrats between 2016 and 2024, with Trump’s margin of victory decreasing by 0.4 percentage points in North Carolina and decreasing by 3.0 percentage points in Georgia. See the charts below for an overview of Trump’s margins in these states in 2016, 2020, and 2024.
To read more about Trump’s margin of victory in each state in 2016, 2020, and 2024, click here.
Voters elected 11 governors this year – here’s where they stand on K-12 education
A version of this story appeared yesterday in Ballotpedia’s education newsletter, Hall Pass. Sign up to stay informed on the latest education policy and school board politics news.
Eleven states held gubernatorial elections on Nov. 5. Those states were Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and West Virginia.
- Eight states had Republican governors, and three had Democratic governors. Three Republican incumbents – Montana’s Greg Gianforte, Utah’s Spencer Cox, and Vermont’s Phil Scott – ran for re-election and won.
- No governor’s offices changed partisan control as a result of the election—the first time this has happened in an even year since 2000.
- Nationwide, there are 27 Republican and 23 Democratic governors.
Governors play an important role in setting education priorities. They often set a vision for education in their annual state of the state addresses and propose budgets that include education financing. In many states, governors appoint the education secretary and board of education members. Here’s a look at the education themes the winning gubernatorial candidates ran on this last year.
Private school choice—programs providing taxpayer funding for private education expenses—was a prominent theme in Republican campaigns.
- Indiana: The first plank of Governor-elect Mike Braun’s (R) education plan states: “Universal School Choice for Every Hoosier Family – Expand school choice programs, reform the Choice Scholarship Program, and double the Education Scholarship Account Program for families with special needs.” Braun also supported public school open enrollment policies, allowing students to enroll in schools or districts outside of their attendance zones.
- New Hampshire: Governor-elect Kelly Ayotte (R) said, “I’m a strong believer in education freedom, and the reason for that is that every child learns differently. And parents know what is best for their children, and we want to give every child in this state the opportunity to go to the school or the educational setting that is best for them.”
- Missouri Governor-elect Mike Kehoe (R) and West Virginia Governor-elect Patrick Morrisey also supported expanding school choice programs, including charter schools.
The soon-to-be Democratic governors campaigned on increasing funding for schools and early childhood education.
- Delaware: Governor-elect Matt Meyer (D), a former math teacher, said, “We must invest more in Delaware’s public education system and distribute resources more equitably, according to student need to support low-income students, students with disabilities, and English Language Learners.” Meyer called for spending an additional $3,400 to $6,400 per student and promised to “provide universal access to pre-K throughout the state by the end of my first term.”
- Washington: Governor-elect Bob Ferguson’s (D) education plan called for fully funding special education, lowering the threshold required for districts to pass a bond, and “guaranteeing access to pre-K for every 4-year-old in the state improves equity by ensuring a child’s ZIP code or socioeconomic status does not predetermine their educational outcomes.”
- North Carolina: Governor-elect Josh Stein (D) supported increasing funding, saying, “North Carolina spends less than nearly all other states in the nation on public school funding as a share of our state’s economy – 49th out of 50!” He also said, “We must increase access to high-quality early childhood education so kids start kindergarten healthy and ready to learn.”
Republican and Democratic gubernatorial candidates supported increasing teacher pay, developing better college and career readiness programs, and limiting cell phones in schools.
- Montana: Returning Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) has advocated for $100 million to increase starting teacher pay. In 2023, Gianforte signed three bills to support internships, apprenticeships, and Career and Technical Education (CTE) programs in high schools.
- North Carolina: Stein said he supported making teacher starting salaries higher than neighboring states and paying high-performing teachers $100,000 a year. Stein said he opposed allowing students to access their smartphones during the school day.
- Utah: Gov. Spencer Cox (R) ran on legislation he signed that increased teacher pay by $6,000. He said the state was “creating new partnerships with the private sector to help provide job training, apprenticeships and exposure for our middle and high school students to a range of career options.” Cox also encouraged schools to block students from using their phones during the school day.
Do you want to learn more about the issues and trends facing K-12 education? Ballotpedia’s Hall Pass is designed to keep you plugged into the conversations driving school board politics and education policy.
Joshua Spivak, author of Recall Elections Blog, joins this week’s On the Ballot to discuss this year’s recall landscape
On Nov. 5, California voters recalled both Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price. Both recalls were the first of their kind in those jurisdictions.
In last Friday’s Brew, we looked at both historic recalls, and now, in this week’s episode of On the Ballot, Joshua Spivak, author of the Recall Elections Blog and a senior fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute at Wagner College, joins Editor-in-Chief Geoff Pallay to discuss this year’s recall landscape and what to look out for next year.
Subscribe to On the Ballot on YouTube or your preferred podcast app, or click on the link below to listen.