Welcome to the Tuesday, May 13, 2025, Brew.
By: Lara Bonatesta
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Mixed-party election outcomes in three most recent presidential election years continue downward trend from highs in the 1980s
- West Virginia enacts bill aligning municipal election dates
- Seven candidates running in the nonpartisan general elections for the Conway School Board in Arkansas
Mixed-party election outcomes in three most recent presidential election years continue downward trend from highs in the 1980s
When there are multiple offices on the ballot, voters can choose candidates from different political parties for the various offices.
This practice is known as split-ticket voting, and it can lead to a mixed-party election outcome, or a situation where a state elects a governor of one party and a U.S. senator of another party, or gives its electoral votes to the candidate of one political party while electing a state legislative majority of another party.
As part of our analysis of the 2024 elections, Ballotpedia went back more than a century and examined mixed-party election outcomes in presidential election years dating back to 1916.
For this analysis, we defined a mixed-party election outcome as one where the candidate of one party won the state’s presidential electoral votes while candidates of another party won a U.S. Senate seat, a majority of the state’s U.S. House delegation, or a state legislative majority on the same ballot.
Mixed-party election outcomes peaked in the 1980s but have trended downward since then. By the 1990s, they had nearly halved before falling into the single digits in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections. In their 2002 book Why Americans Split Their Tickets: Campaigns, Competition, and Divided Government, professors Barry Burden and David Kimball argued that two factors primarily drove split-ticket voting: lack of competition and well-funded incumbents in congressional elections and popular presidential candidates.
In 2024, professor Gary Jacobson told Politico that the decline of split-ticket voting and the decreasing number of mixed-party election outcomes are “part of a large dynamic that includes the way the parties have sorted ideologically and demographically. You have the parties becoming ideologically and demographically distinct and different, which is driving the parties further and further apart. That’s also why the incumbent advantage has also started to disappear.”
In presidential elections from 1916 to 2024, there were 4,651 elections in which a mixed-party election outcome could have occurred. Ballotpedia identified elections in which a U.S. Senate seat, a U.S. House, or state legislative seats were on the same ballot as the presidential election ballot as a possible mixed-party election. A total of 1,179 (or 25.3%) mixed-party election outcomes did occur.
The years with the most mixed-party election outcomes were 1984 (97 out of 166 possible, or 58.4%) and 1972 (86 out of 166, or 51.8%). In each of those years, the winning presidential candidate carried 49 states. The year with the fewest mixed-party election outcomes was 1920, with seven out of a possible 163 (4.3%). Tied for second-fewest were 2016 (nine out of 170 possible, or 5.3%) and 2024 (nine out of 168 possible, or 5.4%).
In addition to our historical analysis, Ballotpedia has also published analyses of mixed-party election outcomes in the 2024 gubernatorial elections as well as in all 2024 statewide elections.
West Virginia enacts bill aligning municipal election dates
On April 24, West Virginia Gov. Patrick Morrisey (R) signed SB 50, requiring all municipal elections to be held concurrently with a statewide primary or general election by 2032.
The Republican-sponsored bill passed the Legislature with bipartisan support, including a unanimous vote in the state Senate.
Supporters said the bill would reduce election costs and lead to higher turnout. Sen. Mike Stuart (R) said, “We’ve got municipalities where we’re having a fraction, a mere fraction of voters showing up to vote because they just have no idea there’s an election.” Del. Larry Kump (R) said, “Senate Bill 50 will eliminate the taxpayer burden of holding these special elections, but importantly, will also increase voter awareness and election turnout.”
Opponents said that it could reduce attention on local candidates. Andy Lang, Mayor of Bridgeport, West Virginia, said, “I think that’s a case where a highly, highly publicized presidential election, like we had this last time, can take the complete focus away from your local candidates. … So I’m more for allowing us to continue to have our municipal elections whenever we want to.”
One hundred thirteen of West Virginia’s 232 municipalities were scheduled to hold elections in 2025, when there is no statewide election date.
Lawmakers in both parties and in states of all trifecta statuses have introduced legislation related to aligning elections this year. As of May 6, 51 bills in 22 states would align or study the alignment of at least some election dates.
In addition to West Virginia, four other states have adopted such legislation so far this year:
- In Arkansas, SB 353 eliminates the state’s May primary and moves it to March, when it holds its presidential preference primary.
- In Kansas, HB 2022 eliminates options for certain special elections and requires them to be held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March or on the same day as the general or primary elections.
- In South Dakota, HB 1130 requires municipal and school board elections to be held on the statewide primary date in June or the November general election date. Previously, these elections occurred on the second Tuesday in April.
- In Virginia, HJR 443 establishes a joint legislative subcommittee to study the effects of moving some or all state or local elections to even-numbered years in order to coincide with the federal election cycle.
Click here to read more about active legislation related to the alignment of elections.
Seven candidates running in the nonpartisan general elections for the Conway School Board in Arkansas
As part of continued coverage of local school board elections, today we’re featuring the one in Conway, Arkansas.
Seven candidates are running in the nonpartisan general elections for Conway School Board on May 13. Three of the board’s seven seats are up for election. The Conway School District consists of seven members serving five-year terms. During the 2023 school year, 10,251 students attended one of the district’s 16 schools.
- Leo Cummings III, Tami Marsh, and Tyler Moses are running at large.
- Barrett Petty and Jason Sandefer are running for the seat representing Zone 1.
- Incumbent Tom Kennedy and Leona Walton are running for the seat representing Zone 5.
The League of Women Voters hosted a forum with six of the candidates on April 11. Cummings, Marsh, Moses, Petty, Sandefer, and Walton participated. Kennedy did not attend. During the forum, candidates discussed communication with the community, academic priorities and student outcomes, millage priorities, and more. Click here to watch the forum.
While school board elections are nonpartisan in Arkansas, according to the Arkansas Advocate the Conway School Board has received media attention in recent years “after the district became a battleground for ‘culture war’ issues, like transgender bathroom policies, book bans and parental rights.” In October 2022, the school board unanimously approved a policy requiring every “multiple occupancy restroom or changing area” to be designated as for “the exclusive use of the male sex” or “ the exclusive use of the female sex”, “as identified on the individual’s original birth certificate.” The board also removed two LGBTQ-related books from school libraries.
This is the second Conway school board election since Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) signed the Arkansas LEARNS Act into law in 2023. The law made various changes to education, including creating the Arkansas Children’s Educational Freedom Account Program, raising the minimum salary for teachers from $36,000 to $50,000, and prohibiting certain content for certain grade levels, among other things.
In the May 2023 elections, candidates Sheila Franklin and Trey Geier defeated incumbents Jennifer Cunningham and William Millburn, who had received endorsements from Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) in the year’s at-large and Zone 5 elections. In March 2024, Millburn defeated Geier in a rematch election in Zone 5.
To learn more about the 2025 Conway School Board election and each of the candidates, click here.