A smaller share of seats were open in this year’s state primary elections than in any odd year since 2011. Ballotpedia’s 2025 state primary election data included competitiveness and incumbency statistics from state legislative and state executive elections in three states — New Jersey, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
The percentage of open seats in 2025 (5.9%) was lower than in any year since 2011, and the percentage of contested primaries was 17.6%, below the average of 19.7% from 2011 to 2023. The percentage of incumbents contested was 22.4%, just above the average of 21.8% in the previous seven cycles.
New Jersey held primaries for governor and General Assembly, the state’s lower legislative chamber. Virginia held primaries for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and House of Delegates. Wisconsin held a non-partisan primary for superintendent of public instruction.
Together, the three states held 51 primaries out of a possible 289 for the 185 total seats up for election.
No incumbents lost in state executive primary elections, and three lost in state legislative primaries, all in New Jersey.
Incumbents defeated in state legislative primaries
Three Democratic incumbents were defeated in New Jersey’s 2025 state legislative primaries, 1.7% of incumbents who ran for re-election and 7.9% of incumbents in contested primaries. A total of 172 state legislative incumbents ran for re-election in New Jersey and Virginia.
This year saw the third fewest incumbents defeated in odd-year cycles since 2011, behind 2017 with zero and 2013 with two.
Additional reading: