The city of St. Louis, Missouri, is holding general elections for the Board of Aldermen on Apr. 4, 2023. All 14 seats on the board and the seat of the president of the board are up for election. A primary is scheduled for March 7, 2023. The filing deadline was Jan. 6, 2023.
The Board of Aldermen is the city’s primary legislative body. It is responsible for adopting the city budget, levying taxes, and making or amending city laws, policies, and ordinances. The President of the Board is responsible for presiding over board meetings.
The 2023 election will be the first to take place under a new ward system that reduced the number of seats on the board from 28 to 14. The reduction in board size was part of Proposition R, a charter amendment passed by voters in 2012 that took effect on Jan. 1, 2022.
In accordance with Proposition R, the board passed new ward maps in 2021. Candidates elected in odd-numbered wards in 2023 will serve an initial two-year term and be eligible to run for four-year terms after that. Candidates elected in even-numbered wards will serve four-year terms. The president of the Board of Aldermen, a separate position elected at large, will also serve a four-year term.
Voters approved another initiative affecting the 2023 election, Proposition D, in 2020. The measure made elections open and non-partisan for the offices of mayor, comptroller, president of the Board of Aldermen, and the Board of Aldermen. The measure also changed the primary election system from plurality voting to approval voting, a voting system in which voters may vote for any number of candidates they choose. In St. Louis, the top two candidates in the primary will advance to the general election on Apr. 4.
As a result of the reduction in the size of the board, four wards have multiple incumbents running against each other this year:
In the 4th ward, incumbents Joe Vaccaro (currently representing Ward 23) and Bret Narayan (Ward 24) are running against each other. Professional photographer Casey Otto is also running.
In the 9th ward, incumbents Tina Pihl (Ward 17) and Michael Gras (Ward 28) are running. Michael Browning, a Washington University School of Medicine staffer, is also running.
In the 13th ward, three incumbents—Lisa Middlebrook (Ward 2), Norma Walker (Ward 22), and Pamela Boyd (Ward 27)—are running against each other.
In the 14th ward, incumbents James Page (Ward 5) and Brandon Bosley (Ward 3) are running. State Representative Rasheen Aldridge and real estate agent Ebony Washington also filed to run.
Two wards—Ward 6 and Ward 7— are open, meaning no incumbents are running. In Ward 6, former alderwoman Jennifer Florida is facing public relations consultant Daniela Velazquez. In Ward 7—the only ward where no current or former board member filed to run—three candidates are running: St. Louis Board of Education member Alisha Sonnier, musician Cedric Redmon, and J.P. Mitchom, the director of Equity and Inclusion at St. Louis Priory School.
Ten current members of the board are not seeking re-election.
President of the Board Megan Ellyia Green is running for re-election unopposed. Green was first elected in a November 2022 special election to fill the seat of former board president Lewis E. Reed, who resigned after being indicted on bribery charges.
The city of St. Louis is also holding a general election for a seat on the community college board on Apr. 4, 2023. 23. Incumbent Pam Ross and Nicole Robinson are running. The filing deadline for that election was Dec. 27, 2022.
Wisconsin Supreme Court primary is less than three weeks away
Let’s start the day with some updates out of Wisconsin, where there have been new fundraising reports and endorsements in the race for state Supreme Court.
Wisconsin is one of two states—alongside Pennsylvania—holding regular elections for state supreme court in 2023.
The top two vote-getters in the Feb. 21 nonpartisan primary for Wisconsin’s Supreme Court will advance to a general election on Apr. 4. Waukesha County Circuit Judge Jennifer Dorow, former Supreme Court Justice Daniel Kelly, Dane County Circuit Judge Everett Mitchell, and Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Janet Protasiewicz are running.
Justice Patience Roggensack, whose term will expire in July, is not running for re-election.
We first took a look at this race in our Jan. 11 edition of The Daily Brew, in which we profiled the four candidates. To read that story, click here.
While supreme court elections are officially nonpartisan, the court is considered to have a 4-3 conservative majority. With Roggensack—a member of the court’s conservative majority—retiring, this election will determine the ideological control of the court. According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Corrinne Hess, “[Mitchell and Protasiewicz] are running as liberal candidates. Kelly and Dorow are running as conservative candidates.”
Wisconsin reporters and political commentators have identified abortion policy, election administration, and legislative redistricting as some of the issues the court could address following the election. Wisconsin has a divided government where neither party holds a trifecta. The governor is Democrat Tony Evers, while the Republican Party controls both chambers of the state legislature.
Current and former justices have endorsed different candidates in the election. Roggensack endorsed Dorow in January 2023. Justice Rebecca Bradley endorsed Kelly in November 2022, Justice Rebecca Dallet endorsed Protasiewicz in May 2022, and former Justice Louis Butler endorsed Mitchell in June 2022.
In terms of fundraising, the four candidates raised a combined $1.7 million (not counting satellite spending) as of December 31, 2022, the most recent reports available. Protasiewicz held a large fundraising advantage over the other candidates, having raised more than $920K, according to the reports. Kelly, in second place, had raised $312K. Dorow had raised $307K, and Mitchell had raised $140K.
Heading into the 2020 election, the court had a 5-2 conservative majority. In that election, liberal Jill Karofsky defeated Kelly 55.2% to 44.7%.
An update on the partisan composition of state legislature seats
At the end of January 2023, 54.85% of all state legislature seats in the United States are Republican while 44.45% of seats are Democratic. There are 7,386 state legislative seats in the country.
Democrats hold 854 state Senate seats, gaining six Senate seats since last month, while Republicans hold 1,108 state Senate seats, gaining three seats since last month. Independent or third-party legislators hold three state Senate seats. Eight state Senate seats are vacant.
When it comes to state House seats, Democrats hold 2,429, a gain of 31 seats since last month, while Republicans hold 2,943 seats, a gain of 25 seats since last month. Independent or third-party legislators hold 20 state House seats. Twenty-one state House seats are vacant.
Compared to January 2022, Democrats have lost eight state Senate seats (862 v. 854) and gained 20 state House seats (2,409 v. 2,429). Republicans have gained 14 state Senate seats (1,094 v. 1,108) and gained 21 state House seats (2,922 v. 2,943).
Listen to our interview with Richard Winger for On the Ballot, our weekly podcast
On the Ballot, our weekly podcast, takes a closer look at the week’s top political stories.
In this week’s episode, host Victoria Rose interviews Richard Winger, founder and editor of Ballot Access News, which covers developments in ballot access law, and the latest action in the minor
political party scene. In their conversation, Winger and Victoria talk about ballot access for minor parties in places like California, Washington, and Georgia, and about what ranked-choice voting (RCV) could mean for minor parties in the future.
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All 50 state constitutions mandate that the governor give an annual (or regular) report to the state legislature on the condition of the state. This speech is most commonly referred to as the State of the State address, although it is known as the Condition of the State address in Iowa and the State of the Commonwealth address in Kentucky, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
As of January 29, 30 governors—14 Democrats and 16 Republicans—have delivered their 2023 annual State of the State address to their state legislature. Eight more governors are scheduled to deliver theirs between now and March 7.
Four of the governors who have delivered their addresses so far—Katie Hobbs (D-Ariz.), Josh Green (D-Hawaii), James Pillen (R-Neb.), and Joe Lombardo (R-Nev.)—were first elected in November of last year and were giving their annual report for the first time. The 26 other governors who addressed their state legislatures were returning incumbents.
Besides reporting on the condition of their states, the governors also laid out their priorities and goals for this year’s legislative session in their addresses. Below you can see a word cloud of the most common words used in the addresses delivered by Democratic and Republican chief state executives so far this year.
While some words like “state” (used 1029 times), “people” (415) and “work” (357) feature prominently in both Democratic and Republican addresses, others appear more often on one side than on the other.
In Democratic addresses, the words “housing” (used 158 times), “families” (145) and “health” (145 times) are near the top. In Republican addresses, the words “million” (used 207 times), “tax” (174), and “school” (172) are among the most common.
Each year, Ballotpedia tracks all of the State of the State addresses given by governors around the country. To see a list of all the addresses given so far this year, click on the link below.
In 2022, 40 U.S. House elections were decided by margins of victory of five percentage points (pp) or less, up from 37 in 2020.
Democrats won 22 of those races, up from 19 in 2020. Republicans won 18, the same number as in 2020.
California and New York each had five races decided by five percentage points or less — the most in the country. Three of Nevada’s four districts were decided by such margins.
In Nevada, Democrats won the three districts decided by 5 pp or less – more than in any other state. In New York, Republicans won four of five races decided by 5 pp or less – more than in any other state.
In 2020, California and Texas had the most districts decided by five percentage points or less, with four each, followed by Iowa and Pennsylvania, with three districts each.
Democrats were most successful in Pennsylvania, where they won all three districts decided by five percentage points or less. Republicans were most successful in California, where they won all four districts decided by such margins.
Compared to previous cycles, Democrats won more U.S. House races decided by five percentage points or less this year than in any other year since 2012. On the Republican side, the 18 races the party won this year are tied with 2020 as the second-most they have won since 2012.
The closest U.S. House election this year was in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 votes cast. Boebert’s margin was 540 votes more than the closest race in 2020. In that race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated Rita Hart (D) by a margin of 6 votes out of nearly 400,000 cast, the narrowest margin of victory in any U.S. House election since 1984.
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
Filing deadline update in Mississippi
Seattle to decide on Social Housing Developer initiative
DeSantis currently leads PredictIt’s 2024 presidential general election market
One week until Mississippi’s statewide filing deadline
Yes, you read that right. As hard as it is to believe, the 2023 election season is already upon us! In Mississippi, the filing deadline to appear on the ballot in the Aug. 8 statewide primaries is Feb.1.—one week from now.
The Magnolia State is one of four states—along with Louisiana, New Jersey, and Virginia—holding regularly-scheduled state legislative elections this year. It is also one of three states—along with Kentucky and Louisiana—holding statewide elections for executive positions this year.
All 52 seats in the Mississippi State Senate and all 122 seats in the Mississippi State House are up for election this year. Republicans currently have a 36-16 majority in the state senate and a 76-42 majority in the state house, with three independent members and one vacancy. The party also holds the governorship, meaning Mississippi has a Republican trifecta.
Besides seats in the state legislature, voters in Mississippi will vote for 14 state executive positions in November. Republicans hold 12 of these positions, and Democrats hold two. As of Jan. 13, ten Republican incumbents and one Democratic one have filed to run for re-election.
Below is a list of the state executive positions up for election in Mississippi this year:
Seattle to decide on Social Housing Developer initiative on Feb. 14
On Feb. 14, Seattle voters will decide on Initiative 135, an initiative to create the Seattle Social Housing Developer, a public development authority to own, develop, and maintain what the initiative describes as social housing. According to Initiative 135, this housing would provide publicly financed apartments that are “removed from market forces and speculation and built with the express aim of housing people equitably and affordably.”
Under Initiative 135, the public developer’s housing units would be available to those with a mix of income ranges from 0% to 120% of the area median income (which was $120,907 as of 2022). Rent prices would be limited to 30% of household income. Applications would not include prior rental references, co-signers, background checks, or application fees. Tenants would be selected using a lottery-based system.
As a public corporation, the Seattle Social Housing Developer would be allowed to issue bonds, receive federal funds and grants, receive private funds, and collect revenue for services.
House Our Neighbors! (HON), also known as Yes on I-135, is sponsoring the initiative. House our Neighbors! needed to submit 26,520 valid signatures to qualify for the ballot. The group submitted 27,220 valid signatures.
HON stated, “Social Housing is publicly owned forever, permanently affordable, and creates cross-class communities and resident leadership. … By creating a community-controlled Social Housing Developer to buy and build housing that will be available to those across the income spectrum, Seattle will have another critical tool to address the suffering, displacement, and inequity that defines our housing landscape.”
The measure has received endorsements from State Sens. Joe Nguyen (D) and Rebecca Saldana (D), and State Reps. Frank Chopp (D) and Nicole Macri (D). It was also endorsed by the Green Party of Seattle and the Working Families Party of Washington.
The Housing Development Consortium, a non-profit organization based in Seattle that describes its mission as building “a diverse network committed to producing, preserving, and increasing equitable access to affordable homes,” released a statement on Initiative 135, writing, “… We are concerned [the initiative] distracts funds and energy away from what our community should be focusing on – scaling up affordable housing for low-income people. We do not need another government entity to build housing when there are already insufficient resources to fund existing entities. … “
“The proposed new public development authority (PDA) would not have the authority to impose taxes on its own, so the funds necessary to set up the additional citywide PDA would likely draw from existing affordable housing funding that could otherwise be dedicated to creating homes for our lowest-income neighbors,” the group added.
Currently, the Seattle Housing Authority, an independent public corporation, provides low-income housing and rental assistance to 17,945 households. The SHA owns and operates 8,530 apartments and single-family homes in Seattle. Eighty-five percent of SHA housing serves households with incomes at or below 30% of the area median income (about $36,270). Funding for the Seattle Housing Authority comes from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), rent revenue, and public and private grants. The Social Housing Developer would not replace the Seattle Housing Authority.
Mail ballots must be postmarked no later than Feb. 14 or returned to a ballot drop box by 8 p.m. on Feb. 14. In Washington, individuals who prefer to vote in person rather than by mail may do so at voting centers, which are open during business hours for 18 days prior to the election. Washington allows for same-day voter registration.
Since 2017, four local measures have reached the ballot in the City of Seattle. All four were approved.
DeSantis currently leads PredictIt’s 2024 presidential general election market
Now, let’s take a look at the 2024 presidential election.
As of January 23, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) leading at $0.31, followed by President Joe Biden (D) at $0.29, former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.21, and California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) at $0.12. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.
The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading the pack at $0.52. Two other candidates have a share price at or above $0.10: California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) is at $0.20, and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) is at $0.11.
DeSantis currently leads in the Republican presidential primary market at $0.38, followed by Trump at $0.32. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading on February 15, 2023.
In the 2022 U.S. Senate and U.S. House elections, the winning candidate’s margin of victory (MOV) was ten percentage points or fewer in 85 races and five percentage points or fewer in 46 races.
Ten of the races decided by ten percentage points or fewer were for the U.S. Senate, and 75 were for the U.S. House. Six of the races decided by five percentage points or fewer were for the U.S. Senate, while 40 were for the U.S. House.
Congressional elections decided by ten percentage points or fewer represent approximately 18% of the 470 U.S. Congressional elections in 2022. Congressional elections decided by five percentage points or fewer represent approximately 10%.
The 85 congressional races decided by ten percentage points or fewer in 2022 are four fewer than the 89 races decided by the same margin in 2020. In 2018, 102 were decided by ten percentage points or fewer. In 2016, 42 were, and in 2014, 56 were.
The Republican candidate won 34 of these elections in 2022, down from 45 in 2020. The Democratic candidate won 51, up from 44 in 2020 and the highest number since 2014.
The 46 Congressional races decided by less than five percentage points or fewer in 2022 are four more than the 42 races decided by the same margin in 2020. In 2018, 50 were decided by five percentage points or fewer or less. In 2016, 42 were, and in 2014, 56 were.
The Republican candidate won 20 of those races in 2022, up from 19 in 2020. The Democratic candidate won 26, up from 23 in 2020 and the highest number since 2014.
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
Updates regarding redistricting litigation in five states
2024 presidential candidate filings currently at the third-highest level in forty years
Listen to our interview with pollster and political analyst Scott Rasmussen for On the Ballot, our weekly podcast
Updates regarding redistricting litigation in five states
In the aftermath of the 2022 redistricting cycle, at least 82 lawsuits challenging congressional and state legislative maps across the country have been filed. According to the American Redistricting Project, 22 states have ongoing litigation regarding either their congressional or legislative redistricting (or both).
Here are some updates regarding redistricting litigation in South Carolina, Kansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas.
South Carolina
On Jan. 6, a federal three-judge panel ruled that South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District was unconstitutional and enjoined the state from conducting future elections in the district until the court approved new boundaries. The ruling ordered the General Assembly to submit a remedial map for its review by Mar. 31.
South Carolina enacted new congressional district maps on Jan. 26, 2022, when Gov. Henry McMaster (R) signed a proposal approved by the South Carolina House and Senate into law. Both state legislative chambers approved the congressional map along party lines, with Republicans supporting the proposal and Democrats opposing it.
On Feb. 10, 2022, the South Carolina State Conference of the NAACP and a South Carolina voter filed an amended complaint against State Senate President Thomas Alexander (R), four other state legislators, and the members of the South Carolina State Election Commission challenging the constitutionality of the state’s congressional district boundaries. The complaint argued that South Carolina’s enacted congressional map “discriminates on the basis of race by appearing to preserve the ability of Black voters to elect in Congressional District 6 (“CD”) while working adeptly to deny the ability of Black voters to elect or even influence elections in any of the other six congressional districts.”
The complaint challenged the constitutionality of the state’s 1st, 2nd, and 5th congressional district boundaries. The three-judge panel ruled the boundaries of the 2nd and 5th district were constitutional, while the boundaries of the 1st district were not.
Chief Judge Roger Gregory of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit appointed the three judges on the panel. Two of the judges – Judge Mary Geiger Lewis and Judge Richard Gergel from the United States District Court for the District of South Carolina – were nominated to their current court by President Barack Obama (D), while the third one — Judge Toby Heytens from the United States Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit — was nominated by President Joe Biden (D).
As of January 18, 2023, it was unclear whether the state would appeal the ruling.
Kansas
On Nov. 23, the plaintiffs in a lawsuit against the state’s congressional district boundaries filed a petition for a writ of certiorari with the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS). The petition—which asks SCOTUS to hear the case—challenges the Kansas Supreme Court’s May 2022 decision upholding that state’s congressional redistricting plan. As of January 18, SCOTUS had not announced whether it would review the case.
Kansas enacted congressional district boundaries on February 9, 2022, when both the state Senate and House overrode Gov. Laura Kelly’s (D) veto of a redistricting plan that the legislature passed. The House of Representatives overrode Kelly’s veto 85-37 on February 9, 2022, with all votes in favor by Republicans, and 36 Democrats and one Republican voting to sustain the veto. The Senate overrode Kelly’s veto 27-11 along party lines on February 8, 2022. The state Senate originally approved the congressional district map proposal on January 21, 2022, and the state House of Representatives approved it on January 26, 2022. Kelly had vetoed the congressional map on February 3, 2022.
On Apr. 25, 2022, Wyandotte County District Court Judge Bill Klapper struck down Kansas’ enacted congressional map. Klapper ruled on a case that resulted from the consolidation of three lawsuits challenging congressional district boundaries on the grounds that they violated the state constitution due to political and racial gerrymandering.
On Jun. 21, 2022, the Kansas Supreme Court overturned the district’s court’s decision that had found that the state’s congressional district boundaries were unconstitutional. The state supreme court’s order said, “The record below demonstrates that plaintiffs did not ask the district court to apply the correct applicable legal tests to their race-based claims. The district court, in turn, did not apply these legal tests to plaintiffs’ race-based claims…Therefore, on the record before us, plaintiffs have failed to satisfy their burden to meet the legal elements required for a showing of unlawful racial gerrymandering or unlawful race-based vote dilution.”
Mississippi
On Dec. 20, the Mississippi State Conference of the NAACP and five Mississippi voters filed a lawsuit in federal district court challenging the state’s legislative district map. The suit alleges that the boundaries the legislature enacted in March 2022 violate the 1965 Voting Rights Act and “illegally dilute the voting strength of Black Mississippians and improperly use voters’ race to achieve partisan goals and protect incumbent politicians.”
On Dec. 20, Judge Priscilla Richman, the Chief Judge for the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, appointed a three-judge panel to hear the case. The judges on the panel — Circuit Judge Leslie Southwick, District Judge Daniel Jordan, and District Judge Sul Ozerden — were nominated to their current court by President George W. Bush (R).
Mississippi enacted new state legislative district boundaries on Mar. 31, 2022, when both legislative chambers approved district maps for the other chamber. Legislative redistricting in Mississippi is done via a joint resolution and did not require Gov. Tate Reeves’ (R) approval.
Mississippi voters will decide elections for all 52 state Senate seats and all 122 state House of Representatives seats in 2023. The qualifying period for prospective state legislative candidates began on Jan. 3 and ends on Feb. 1.
North Carolina
On Dec. 16, the North Carolina Supreme Court affirmed the February 2022 decision of the Wake County Superior Court that rejected the remedial congressional redistricting plan that the General Assembly adopted (RCP) and adopted the Modified remedial congressional redistricting plan (Modified RCP) that the court-appointed special masters developed. The special masters were three former judges: former Superior Court Judge Tom Ross, a Democrat, former state Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr, an independent, and former state Supreme Court Justice Bob Edmunds, a Republican. The Modified RCP was used for North Carolina’s 2022 congressional elections.
Two of the justices who voted to affirm the Wake County Superior Court’s decision — Justice Robin Hudson (D) and Justice Sam Ervin IV (D) — left the court on January 1, 2023, 16 days after the ruling took place. Hudson did not run for re-election in 2022, and Ervin lost re-election on November 8.
The North Carolina General Assembly originally enacted new congressional district boundaries on Nov. 4, 2021. On Feb. 4, 2022, the North Carolina Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that the enacted congressional map violated the state constitution and directed the General Assembly to develop new maps.
Republican state legislators filed an emergency appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court on Feb. 25, 2022, asking to halt the state court’s order until SCOTUS could review the case. The United States Supreme Court declined on Mar. 7, 2022, to block the enacted congressional map. The Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives—Timothy K. Moore (R)—appealed this case to the U.S. Supreme Court, which agreed to hear the case on Jun. 30, 2022. The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in this case on Dec. 7, 2022.
Texas
On Dec. 6, a federal district court dismissed the League of United Latin American Citizens’ claims that the state’s adopted congressional district boundaries do not enable Hispanics to “have an equal opportunity to participate in the political process and elect representatives of their choice” in Texas’ 15th Congressional District. This is one of seven ongoing cases challenging the congressional map Texas adopted after the 2020 census.
From September 2021 to May 2022, 44 states enacted revised congressional district boundaries after the 2020 census, and six states were apportioned one U.S. House district, so no congressional redistricting was required.
2024 presidential candidate filings currently at the third-highest level in 40 years
Five hundred and thirty-one people have filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for president in 2024 as of Jan. 17. The list includes 77 Democratic candidates (14.5%), 145 Republican candidates (27.3%), and 309 nonpartisan or minor party candidates (58.2%). This figure excludes candidates whose filings have expired or who we identified as fake candidates.
Any person running for president that raises or spends more than $5,000 for a campaign must file a Statement of Candidacy with the FEC within 15 days. To do so, that person must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for at least 14 years. A Statement of Candidacy includes basic information like the candidate’s name and address and any campaign committees working for them.
The number of filings in the 2024 election is the third most in 40 years. In 2016, 1,762 candidates filed with the FEC to run for president. In 2020, 1,212 candidates filed.
Of the 11 presidential elections that took place from 1980 to 2020, the 1984 election had the highest proportion of Democratic candidates at 40.1%. The major party candidates running that year were incumbent Ronald Reagan (R) and Walter Mondale (D). The 2012 election had the highest proportion of Republican candidates in that period at 29.0%. The major party candidates that year were incumbent Barack Obama (D) and Mitt Romney (R). The highest proportion of nonpartisan or minor party candidates filed in 2016 (70.4%), which featured Hillary Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R).
The current proportion of 2024 candidates—14.5% Democratic, 27.3% Republican, and 58.2% nonpartisan or minor party candidates—most closely resembles the averages seen in presidential elections with a Democratic incumbent. President Joe Biden (D) has not announced a re-election campaign, but he is eligible to run for a second term in 2024.
Interview with pollster Scott Rasmussen for On the Ballot, our weekly podcast
On the Ballot, our weekly podcast, takes a closer look at the week’s top political stories.
In this week’s episode, Ballotpedia’s Editor-in-Chief Geoff Pallay steps in for host Victoria Rose to interview pollster Scott Rasmussen, the president of RMG Research and the author of the Number of the Day column for Ballotpedia. In their conversation, Geoff and Rasmussen cover various topics, from the 2022 U.S. House results and the difficulty of polling today to political polarization in America and even the origins of sliced bread!
Episodes of On the Ballot come out Thursdays.
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Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
Following the 2022 elections, more Americans now live in a Democratic trifecta than a Republican trifecta
Aaron Rouse (D) defeats Kevin Adams (R) in the special election for Virginia SD 7, flipping the seat for the first time since 1991
Listen to our interview with journalist and political analyst Barry Casselman for On the Ballot, our weekly podcast
Following the 2022 elections, more Americans now live in a Democratic trifecta than a Republican trifecta
As a result of the 2022 elections, a greater percentage of Americans now live in a Democratic state government trifecta than in a Republican trifecta. Once all newly elected officials take office, 41.7% of Americans will live in a state with a Democratic trifecta, 39.6% in a state with a Republican trifecta, and 18.8% in a state with divided government.
This will be the lowest percentage of Americans living in a Republican trifecta and the highest percentage of Americans living in a Democratic trifecta in the past six years.
Before the election, 41.8% of Americans lived in a state with a Republican trifecta, 33.9% with a Democratic trifecta, and 24.3% in a state with divided government.
The table below shows the percentage of Americans living in each type of state going back to before the 2018 elections.
State government trifecta is a term to describe single-party government, when one political party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The 2022 elections resulted in 22 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 11 states with divided government. Democrats gained trifectas in four states—Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota—and lost a trifecta in Nevada. Republicans lost a trifecta in Arizona.
The 17 Democratic trifectas are the most since 1993, and the 11 divided governments are the fewest since 1992.
Aaron Rouse (D) defeats Kevin Adams (R) in the special election for Virginia SD 7, flipping the seat for the first time since 1991
On to Virginia, where Virginia Beach councilmember Aaron Rouse (D) defeated Kevin Adams (R) 50.4% to 49.5% in the special election for State Senate District 7. The special election was called after the previous incumbent, Sen. Jennifer Kiggans (R), resigned after being elected to represent Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District.
Before Rouse’s victory, a Democrat hadn’t won the 7th District since 1991, when incumbent Clarence Holland (D) was re-elected to a third term.
Frank Wagner (R), the incumbent from 2001 to 2019, ran unopposed in 2011. Four years later, in 2015, Wagner defeated Gary McCollum (D) 54.2% to 45.8%. In 2019, Kiggans, Wagner’s successor, defeated Cheryl Turpin (D) 50.4% to 49.5%, a margin of victory of less than one percentage point.
Ahead of the election, Daily Kos’ David Nir wrote that District 7 “[had] been very swingy: In 2019, Kiggans won it by less than one point, while Joe Biden carried it by 10 points the following year, only to see Youngkin prevail by 4 points in 2021.”
Tuesday’s result will give Democrats a 22-18 majority in the state senate. Before Kiggans’ resignation, Democrats held a 21-19 majority.
Two special elections for seats in the Virginia House of Delegates also took place on January 10. Holly Seibold (D) defeated Monique Baroudi (R) in the special election for House District 35, and Ellen Campbell (R) defeated Jade Harris (D) in the special election for House District 24. Unlike the race for Virginia’s 7th in the state senate, the outcome of these races will not affect the partisan balance in the House of Delegates. Once Seibold and Campbell are sworn in, Republicans will have a 52-48 majority in the chamber, the same number they had before the seats became vacant.
The special election for Virginia SD 7 took place under now-outdated district lines. New state legislative maps took effect on January 11, at the start of the 2023 legislative session, and one day after the special election. While the old district covered parts of Virginia Beach and Norfolk in eastern Virginia, the redrawn district is located in western Virginia. Click here to view a comparison of the old and redrawn district maps.
All Virginia Senate and House legislative seats are up for election on November 7, 2023.
In special elections from 2010 to 2023, 113 state legislative seats changed partisan control, or flipped. Including the special election in Virginia SD 7, Democrats flipped 61 seats, Republicans flipped 46 seats, and independent and third-party candidates flipped six seats. Democrats flipped the most seats in 2017, when they flipped 14 state legislative seats, while Republicans flipped the most seats in 2015, when they flipped nine seats.
As of January 12, 18 state legislative special elections have been scheduled for 2023 in ten states. Five, including the Virginia special elections, have already taken place, while 13 are scheduled to take place before May 16.
Listen to our interview with journalist and political analyst Barry Casselman for On the Ballot, our weekly podcast
On the Ballot, our weekly podcast, takes a closer look at the week’s top political stories.
In this week’s episode, host Victoria Rose and Ballotpedia’s Managing Editor Cory Eucalitto interview journalist and political analyst Barry Casselman. Casselman, who has reported and analyzed American presidential and national politics since 1972, shared with Victoria and Cory his views on what happened in the midterm elections, how political journalism has changed over the years, and even shared some early 2024 presidential predictions.
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As a result of the 2022 elections, the congressional delegations of 12 states will become more Republican because Republicans in those states gained seats, Democrats lost seats, or a combination of the two. The congressional delegations of nine states will become more Democratic because Democrats in those states gained seats, Republicans lost seats, or a combination of the two.
New York and Florida experienced the largest swings in total seats toward Republicans. In New York, Democrats lost four seats and Republicans gained three, while in Florida, Democrats lost three seats and Republicans gained four.
Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina experienced the largest swings in total seats toward Democrats. In Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, Democrats gained one seat and Republicans lost two seats, while in North Carolina, Democrats gained two seats and Republicans lost one.
Despite gaining two seats due to apportionment, the partisan split of Texas’ congressional delegation remained the same as each party won one of the newly created seats.
The 2022 election was the first election after the 2020 census, and the size of some state delegations changed as a result of the congressional apportionment process. Five states gained seats and will send larger delegations to the 118th Congress. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon gained one seat each, and Texas gained two seats. Seven states — California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia — lost one seat each due to the 2020 census and will send smaller delegations to the 118th Congress.
Thirty-three states will send at least one new member to the 118th Congress, while 17 states will send the same members of Congress that represented them at the start of the 117th Congress.
Oregon will send the greatest percentage of new members to the 118th Congress: 37.5% of the Oregon delegation was not seated at the start of the 117th Congress.
The office of Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger reported that 3.5 million Georgians voted in the runoff election for U.S. Senate this year. That number 25% less than two years ago, when 4.5 million Georgians cast their ballots in the runoffs that took place on January 5, 2021.
This year, 44.7% of all registered voters voted in the runoff, down 13.5% from 2021, when 58.2% of all registered voters voted in the runoff. (The office of the Secretary of State distinguishes between active registered voters and inactive registered voters. We used estimates for all registered voters, active and inactive, to calculate these percentages.)
Turnout for this year’s runoff was 89.8% of the November 8 general election turnout, in which 3.9 million Georgians voted. That’s a slight decline from 2021, when the runoff turnout was 91.3% of the general election turnout, in which 4.9 million people voted.
More than 1.9 million voters cast their ballots early this year, including 1.7 million who voted early in person and over 188 thousand voters who voted absentee by mail. That number is 48% less than 2021, when 3.1 million Georgians voted early, including 2.1 million who did so in person and 1.1 million who voted absentee by mail.
The number of voters who cast their ballots on Election Day increased from two years ago. This year, over 1.6 million Georgians voted on Election Day, 20.7% more than in 2021, when 1.3 million voters did so.
