Author: Nathan Maxwell
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Robert White wins Democratic primary in race to succeed 18-term U.S. House incumbent in Washington, D.C.
Robert White defeated Trent Holbrook, Greg Jaczko, Brooke Pinto, and Kinney Zalesne in the Democratic primary for the U.S. House of Representatives in Washington D.C., on June 16, 2026. White, Pinto, and Zalesne led in polling and campaign fundraising ahead of the election. On January 26, 2026, incumbent Eleanor Holmes Norton (D) announced she would…
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Party control informs state legislative competitiveness trends ahead of 2026 elections
Across 31 states with completed candidate filing data, an average of 23% of incumbent state legislators are running in contested primaries this year — the second-highest share since 2010, trailing only 2022. At the same time, the average share of open seats, at 17.4%, is the second-lowest since 2010. Among the 31 states with completed…
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Fewer open Washington state legislative seats than recent years
Nineteen seats are open in Washington’s state legislative elections this year, meaning no incumbents filed. That is down 27% from 26 open seats in each of the previous two elections and means newcomers are guaranteed 13% of the legislature next year. Twenty-nine incumbents face primary contests in Washington’s state legislative elections this year, one above…
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Letlow and Fleming face off in Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate in Louisiana after incumbent Bill Cassidy finished third in primary
Julia Letlow (R) and John Fleming (R) advanced to a June 27 Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate in Louisiana, with 45% and 28% of the primary vote, respectively. Incumbent Bill Cassidy finished third, with 24% of the vote. NOLA's Tyler Bridges wrote, "As during the primary, Letlow and Fleming are both claiming to be…
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Four Republicans running to succeed U.S. Rep. John James (R) in Michigan's 10th Congressional District
Four candidates — Michael Bouchard, Steffan Demetropoulos, Justin Kirk, and Robert Lulgjuraj — are running in the Republican primary for U.S. House of Representatives in Michigan's 10th Congressional District on August 4, 2026. Bouchard and Lulgjuraj lead in polling, fundraising, and media attention. Incumbent John James (R) announced in 2025 that he would not seek…
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Two Republican incumbents drawn into the same congressional district to face off in general election for California's 40th
Incumbents Ken Calvert (R) and Young Kim (R) defeated six other candidates to win the top-two primary for California's 40th Congressional District on June 2, 2026, receiving 35% and 21% of the vote, respectively. Calvert, Kim, Joe Kerr (D), and Esther Kim Varet (D) led in campaign fundraising and polling ahead of the election. Calvert…
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Four Democrats compete for party nomination to challenge Republican incumbent in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District
Four candidates — Nila Devanath, Bill Fleming, Elaine Luria, and Patrick Mosolf — are running in the Democratic primary for Virginia's 2nd Congressional District on August 4, 2026. Devanath and Luria lead in fundraising and media attention. The winner of the Democratic primary will face incumbent Jennifer Kiggans (R) in the general election. Luria represented…
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Michigan to see smallest share of contested state legislative incumbents since 2010
In 2026, 19% of the state legislative incumbents running for election in Michigan will face primary contests, a record low since 2010. In total, 20 incumbents face contested primaries across the Michigan House and Senate. The average number of incumbents contested each midterm election cycle since 2010 was 28. Thirteen of the contested incumbents are…
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Arizona's 2026 state legislative elections less competitive than average
Arizona’s state legislative elections this year are shaping up to be generally less competitive than the average from 2010 to 2024. Voters will see below-average open seats, contested primaries, and contested incumbents. Twenty-four seats are open in Arizona’s state legislative elections this year, meaning no incumbents filed. That is less than the average of 29…
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Two incumbents lost in Montana Senate primaries, the most in one year since 2010
Two Republican incumbents lost in the Montana Senate primaries on June 2. This was the first year since 2010 in which more than one incumbent lost in the chamber's primaries. At the start of Montana's 2025 state legislative session, nine Republican senators voted with the chamber's Democrats to change procedural rules for the session. In…