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Ballotpedia’s Weekly Presidential News Briefing: November 2-8, 2019

 Ballotpedia's Weekly Presidential News Briefing

Every weekday, Ballotpedia tracks the events that matter in the 2020 presidential election. 

This email brings you the highlights from our daily briefings in a weekly format so you can stay up-to-date on the 2020 election with one, easy-to-read summary.

Here’s the latest from the campaign trail.

Candidates by the Number

 

There are 14 new candidates running since last week, including one Republican and two Libertarians. In total, 930 individuals are currently filed with the FEC to run for president.

Notable Quotes of the Week

“Tuesday’s results continued to demonstrate GOP problems in the suburbs since Trump took office. The latest was in northern Kentucky in the Cincinnati suburbs, where Bevin won in 2015 and Beshear won in 2019. Or in northern Mississippi, in the Memphis suburbs where the GOP margin in DeSoto County dropped from 61 points to 20 points, according to Ryan Matsumoto, a contributing analyst to Inside Elections. These are just the latest pieces of evidence after Democrat Dan McCready’s overperformance in the Charlotte suburbs from 2018 to the 2019 special election in North Carolina’s 9th District. It should be particularly concerning for President Trump in his efforts to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas in 2020.”

– Nathan GonzalesRoll Call

“Yes, Trump went to Kentucky on Monday night to stump for Bevin. And, yes, he told the crowd at a Lexington rally that losing the governor’s race would send ‘a really bad message.’

But every other major GOP candidate seeking statewide office in the Bluegrass State won their race. The governor’s mansion in Mississippi is going to stay red (after Trump also stumped in that state recently). And Virginia isn’t a purple state so the Democrats’ sweep there isn’t as foreshadowing as it might be in other states.”

– Ledyard KingUSA Today

Week in Review

Bloomberg signals 2020 presidential bid, files for Alabama primary

Michael Bloomberg reportedly will file for the Alabama Democratic presidential primary before the filing deadline on Friday.

Although Bloomberg has not announced a formal decision about running for president, Axios reported that he is looking to meet other upcoming filing deadlines in Arkansas, New Hampshire, Florida, California, and Texas.

With an estimated net worth of $52 billion, Bloomberg will self-fund his campaign.

November debate reaches 10 candidates, December reaches six

Tulsi Gabbard qualified this week for the fifth Democratic presidential, becoming the 10th candidate to make the stage. The debate will be held on Nov. 20 at Tyler Perry Studios in Atlanta.

Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar both reached the polling threshold to qualify for the December debate. In addition to meeting fundraising thresholds, candidates need to receive 4 percent support or more in four national or early state polls or 6 percent support or more in two single state polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and/or Nevada.

In total, six candidates have qualified for the December debate in Los Angeles. GabbardTom Steyer, and Andrew Yang are on the cusp: each has at least one qualifying poll.

Trump rallies for Republican gubernatorial candidates

Donald Trump held three rallies across the South this week to support gubernatorial candidates in MississippiKentucky, and Louisiana.

Republican Tate Reeves won the race in Mississippi, while the Kentucky race remains too close to call with Democrat Andy Beshear leading Republican Matt Bevin by roughly 5,000 votes. Beshear has declared victory in the race. Bevin is considering asking for a recount and has yet to concede.

The Louisiana gubernatorial runoff election takes place on Nov. 16.  Incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) faces Eddie Rispone (R). If Edwards wins, the state will remain as divided government. A Rispone victory would give Republicans a trifecta.

Two Steyer aides face allegations of improper conduct

A South Carolina aide to Tom Steyer resigned this week after allegedly downloading the Kamala Harris campaign’s volunteer data file. 

Another aide, Pat Murphy, allegedly offered local Iowa political figures compensation in exchange for an endorsement of Steyer, according to an Associated Press report. Press secretary Alberto Lammers said no officials in Iowa had received contributions and the campaign did not authorize Murphy’s actions. 

Five candidates hit Iowa and New Hampshire airwaves with new ads

  • Steve Bullock is airing his first two television ads in Iowa. One highlights his statewide victory in a red state and the other features state Attorney General Tom Miller.
  • Pete Buttigieg released his sixth television ad in Iowa, which focuses on his speech at the Liberty and Justice Dinner in Iowa. 
  • Julián Castro is airing a new ad in Iowa comparing his policies to Trump’s as part of a $50,000 ad buy.
  • Bernie Sanders is airing “Fight for Us,” his first television ad in New Hampshire. The ad will run for two weeks and is part of a $1 million ad buy.
  • Andrew Yang is also spending $1 million on his first ad in Iowa, “New Way Forward.”

Want more? Find the daily details here:

Poll Spotlight

Staff Spotlight

Emmy Ruiz is a Democratic campaign staffer with experience in California, Nevada, and Texas. Ruiz is a partner at consulting firm NEWCO Strategies. She graduated from the University of Texas at San Antonio with a degree in English language and literature in 2006.

Previous campaign work:

  • 2016 Hillary Clinton (D) presidential campaign, Colorado and Nevada state director
  • 2012 Barack Obama (D) presidential campaign, Nevada general election director
  • 2008 Hillary Clinton (D) presidential campaign, canvass director and regional field director

Other experience:

  • 2019: NEWCO Strategies, partner
  • 2013-2014: Annie’s List, political director
  • 2013: Organizing for Action, comprehensive immigration reform campaign manager
  • 2012-2013: Obama Inaugural Committee Office of Public Engagement, deputy director
  • 2011-2012: Organizing for America, Nevada field director
  • 2009-2011: Democratic National Committee, Texas field director
  • 2011: U.S. Agency for International Development, Yes Youth Can field consultant
  • 2008-2010: Young Democrats of America, national field manager
  • 2006-2007: American Red Cross, development coordinator/grant writer

What We’re Reading

Flashback: November 4-8, 2015

  • November 4, 2015: Ben Carson topped the RealClearPolitics polling average for the first time. Donald Trump previously held the first position for 107 days.
  • November 5, 2015: Bernie Sanders signed a joint fundraising agreement with the Democratic National Committee.
  • November 6, 2015: Reps. Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo endorsed Marco Rubio.
  • November 7, 2015: Donald Trump hosted Saturday Night Live on NBC.
  • November 8, 2015:  Joan Kato replaced Jim Farrell as Bernie Sanders’ Nevada state director.

Trivia

How many noteworthy candidates were running for president at this point in the 2016 election?

  1. Eight→
  2. Fourteen→
  3. Twenty→
  4. Twenty-six→


More election coverage!

The Daily Brew
Welcome to the November 7, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. More election results from out west and there’s still time to register for today’s briefing on 2019’s ballot measures
  2. Groups submit signatures for two 2020 marijuana initiatives in South Dakota
  3. Local Elections Roundup

More election results from out west and there’s still time to register for today’s briefing on 2019’s ballot measures

In case you missed it, yesterday’s Brew detailed 10 observations from Tuesday. After some sleep and more caffeine, I wanted to update you on the results of certain late-reporting elections:

Seattle City Council

None of Seattle’s seven city council races have been called since Washington holds elections by-mail.  Officials will continue counting ballots that are postmarked on or before Nov. 5. and will certify election results Nov. 26. Three incumbents are running for election among the seven district seats.

These races saw satellite spending of more than $4 million, which was more than 5 times the amount spent in 2015, the last time the same seven council seats were up for election. Amazon contributed $1.5 million to the local chamber of commerce’s PAC, which endorsed candidates in each race, including challengers to two incumbents. PACs affiliated with labor groups endorsed and spent in support of candidates opposing those backed by the chamber in most races. 

Based on unofficial results as of Wednesday at 5:00 p.m. CT, four candidates supported by the Chamber of Commerce are leading in their districts and three candidates supported by another PAC—the Civic Alliance for a Progressive Economy (CAPE)—are ahead in their races. Democratic presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have both tweeted support for candidates endorsed by CAPE and opposition to the Chamber of Commerce’s efforts. 

San Francisco District Attorney 

The results of San Francisco’s district attorney election are too close to call. Under the city’s system of ranked-choice voting, voters may select multiple candidates, ranking their preferences from among their options. If no candidate receives a majority of the first-choice vote, the last-place candidate is eliminated and their voters’ votes are allocated to their next preferred candidate. This process is repeated until one candidate has a majority. 

With partial results reported from just under 100% of precincts, Chesa Boudin led with 33.0% of the first-choice vote, followed by Suzy Loftus with 30.9%, Nancy Tung with 20.8%, and Leif Dautch with 15.4%. This is the first open-seat election for San Francisco District Attorney since 1909. The race attracted national attention, with presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris making endorsements. Sanders endorsed Boudin and Harris—who held the office herself before being elected California attorney general—endorsed Loftus.

Colorado Proposition CC

Colorado voters rejected Proposition CC—54.7% to 45.3%—which would have allowed the state to keep revenue above the state spending cap to provide funding for transportation and education. Under the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR), passed in 1992, the state is required to refund revenue above the spending cap to taxpayers. The Colorado State Legislature placed Proposition CC on the ballot along party lines. Legislative Democrats voted for the bill referring the measure to voters, while legislative Republicans voted against the bill. 

And just a reminder that we’re hosting another briefing later today on 2019’s ballot questions. We covered 32 statewide ballot measures in seven states, as well as 141 local measures that appeared on the ballot in North Carolina and California, as well as those within the 100 largest cities in the U.S. by population. Our ballot measures expert—Josh Altic—will break down the results of all the key statewide and local measures and discuss trends that are emerging nationwide. The briefing is at 1:30 p.m. Central Time, and you can click the button below to reserve your spot. As always, if you can’t watch it live, we’ll send you a link to the recording when it’s available so you can catch up on your schedule.

Register now blank    blankblank   



Groups submit signatures for two 2020 marijuana initiatives in South Dakota 

And speaking of ballot measures, let’s look ahead a bit to 2020. Proponents of two 2020 marijuana initiatives in South Dakota submitted a combined 80,000 signatures to the Secretary of State on Nov. 4. One initiative would amend the state’s constitution while the other is an initiated state statute. 

The proposed constitutional amendment would legalize and regulate recreational marijuana and require the state legislature to pass laws providing for the use of medical marijuana and the sale of hemp by April 1, 2022. The measure was sponsored by former U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson and is supported by the committee, South Dakotans for Better Marijuana Laws. Proponents reported submitting 50,000 signatures. To qualify for the ballot, 33,921 valid signatures are required. 

South Dakotans for Better Marijuana Laws is also supporting an initiated state statute that would amend state laws to provide for a medical marijuana program. Proponents reported submitting 30,000 signatures for this measure. To qualify for the ballot, 16,961 valid signatures are required.

As of 2019, 11 states and the District of Columbia had legalized the possession and personal use of marijuana for recreational purposes. Nine jurisdictions had made such changes through statewide citizen initiatives, and two through bills approved by state legislatures and signed by governors. 

Recreational marijuana

Of the 33 states —and Washington, D.C.—that had approved the legalization of medical marijuana, 17 states achieved legalization via statewide ballot measure and 15 states passed laws in their state legislatures. Additionally, 13 states had legalized the use of cannabis oil, or cannabidiol (CBD)—one of the non-psychoactive ingredients found in marijuana—for medical purposes.

Local Elections Roundup

ICYMI, I discussed on our recap briefing yesterday the 2,983 races we covered Tuesday. Here are the results of some other local races:

Houston

Incumbent Sylvester Turner and former Texas A&M Board of Regents member Tony Buzbee advanced from Tuesday’s mayoral election to a Dec. 14 runoff since none of the 12 candidates received a majority of the vote. Turner received 47 percent of the vote to Buzbee’s 28 percent. Houston is the fourth-largest city in the United States and has a population of 2.2 million.

Houston Independent School District

Four of nine seats on the Houston Independent School District (HISD) school board were up for election and both of the incumbents running for re-election were defeated Tuesday. The two incumbents had been endorsed by a group that includes the Houston Federation of Teachers. The two open-seat races advanced to a Dec. 14 runoff since no candidate received more than 50% of the vote; one of the two races will feature a candidate backed by the same group. 

Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath informed the school district on Wednesday that the state would appoint both a new superintendent and a board of managers to oversee the district. In a letter, Morath said the action was taken due to what he described as a “failure of governance” by the school board and poor academic performance ratings at a high school in the district. The board of managers would assume the responsibilities of the school board and elected board members would not have any power until reinstated by the state. The HISD recently filed a lawsuit to prevent the state from taking control of the district. 

Philadelphia

The Working Families Party (WFP) won one of seven at-large seats on the Philadelphia City Council for the first time in city history, according to unofficial election returns. WFP candidate Kendra Brooks was in sixth place—trailing five Democratic candidates—and incumbent David Oh (R) was in seventh.  

City rules state that a political party may nominate only five candidates for the seven at-large seats, meaning that no one party can win every city council seat. Since Philadelphia’s charter was adopted in 1951, every council election has resulted in Democrats winning five at-large seats and Republicans winning two.

Boise

Boise will hold its first-ever mayoral runoff election December 3 after no candidate won a majority of votes in Tuesday’s general election. City council president Lauren McLean finished first—receiving 46% of the vote—and incumbent David Bieter—who is seeking his fifth term—was second with 30% in a seven-candidate field. McLean is seeking to become the city’s first female mayor.

Albuquerque

Voters in Albuquerque, New Mexico, approved 15 ballot measures and rejected one Tuesday. The measures approved included 10 bond measures for the city of Albuquerque, one bond measure for Albuquerque Public Schools, and one bond measure for Central New Mexico Community College. City voters also renewed a 0.25 percent gross receipts tax dedicated to road infrastructure, transit, and trails, a measure that made changes to the city’s public financing program for candidates, and approved the continuation of a property tax for school facilities and education technology improvements. Voters defeated a measure that would have created a program called Democracy Dollars, which would have provided residents with $25 vouchers that could be donated to participating candidates.


 



Gabbard is tenth candidate to qualify for November debate

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 7, 2019: Tulsi Gabbard is the tenth candidate to qualify for the fifth Democratic presidential debate. Rep. Ayanna Pressley endorsed Elizabeth Warren on Wednesday.


 Presidential poll highlights, 2019-2020 - Nevada Independent (October 28 - November 2, 2019)
Presidential poll highlights, 2019-2020 - Emerson College (October 31 - November 2, 2019)

Notable Quote of the Day

“Currently, about two in three Republicans (66%) and Democrats (65%) report being more excited about voting than they were in previous elections. This differs from the typical pattern Gallup has seen over the years, whereby those who identify with the political party of the incumbent president have been less enthusiastic about voting than members of the opposing party. This is true whether that president is running for election or leaving office. … 

History would suggest that Democrats would be more keyed up to vote than Republicans, but that isn’t the case in this early marker taken nearly a year before Election Day 2020. Though a lot can change in a year, the current politically polarized environment — with added tensions from a congressional impeachment inquiry — could be resulting in voters of all political stripes’ sense that a lot is at stake in their upcoming vote.

– Justin McCarthy, Gallup

Democrats

Republicans

  • Mike Pence is traveling to New Hampshire on Thursday to file in the New Hampshire primary for the Donald Trump campaign.

  • Bill Weld discussed impeachment, climate change, and canceled Republican presidential primaries in a text-based interview with BuzzFeed News.

Flashback: November 7, 2015

Donald Trump hosted Saturday Night Live on NBC.

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We have election results!

The Daily Brew
Welcome to today’s Brew. The caffeine still hasn’t worn off yet from last night’s election results work. We’re bringing you a special edition today—10 things to know about last night. Note: results are current as of 2 am EST.

  1. Join us for a briefing later today discussing yesterday’s results
  2. Three top statewide executive offices may have flipped in Kentucky
  3. Democrats win control of state Senate, House of Delegates in Virginia
  4. New York City approves ranked-choice voting for city primaries
  5. Reeves elected governor of Mississippi
  6. North Carolina mayoral election decided by two votes
  7. Incumbent Turner leads Houston mayoral race
  8. Texas voters reject first constitutional amendment since 2011
  9. Tucson voters reject sanctuary city initiative
  10. New Jersey state Assembly races yet to be called

Join us for a briefing later today discussing yesterday’s results

Want a quick summary of yesterday’s key results? Join me as I sit down with Cory Eucalitto—one of Ballotpedia’s Managing Editors—to discuss the outcome of Tuesday’s elections and their effect on policymaking and redistricting. We’ll cover results from coast to coast starting at 1:30 p.m. Central Time. Register using the link below and if you can’t join us live, we’ll send you a link to the recording when it’s available so you can catch up on your schedule.

Register here
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Three top statewide executive offices may have flipped in Kentucky 

Kentucky’s gubernatorial election was too close to call Tuesday night with 100% of precincts reporting. Attorney General Andy Beshear (D) received 49.2% of the vote to incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin (R)’s 48.9%, according to unofficial results. John Hicks (L) received 2.0%. Beshear declared victory but Bevin had not conceded the race.

Daniel Cameron (R) defeated Gregory Stumbo (D) in Kentucky’s attorney general election Tuesday night, 58% to 42%. The current attorney general is Beshear, who ran for governor, so Cameron’s win is a change in party. Democrats have controlled Kentucky’s Attorney General office since 1948. Republican Michael Adams won the race for secretary of state currently held by term-limited incumbent Alison Lundergan Grimes (D). 

If Beshear’s lead holds, Kentucky will remain under divided triplex control because partisan control of these three offices and the governorship will be split. Kentucky has been under divided triplex control since the 2015 elections. If Bevin wins, Republicans will have triplex control.

Republicans control both chambers of the Kentucky state legislature, which did not hold elections yesterday. If Beshear’s lead holds, Kentucky will have a divided government. It has been a Republican trifecta since the 2016 elections. If Bevin wins, Kentucky will remain a Republican trifecta. 

According to election night returns, Beshear won 23 counties and Bevin won 97. Seventeen counties were won by a different party this cycle than in the 2015 gubernatorial election. Thirteen of those counties flipped from Bevin (R) in 2015 to Beshear (D) in 2019. The other four counties flipped from Jack Conway (D) in 2015 to Bevin (R) in 2019. Beshear won in 21 counties that President Donald Trump (R) carried in the 2016 presidential election.

Democrats win control of state Senate, House of Delegates in Virginia 

Democrats flipped two seats to gain a 21-19 majority in the Virginia State Senate and gained at least five seats to win a 54-45 majority in the Virginia House of Delegates. One House race was too close to call. Heading into the election, Republicans held a 21-19 majority in the state Senate and a 51-49 majority in the House of Delegates. One Republican incumbent was defeated in the state Senate, and four Republican incumbents were defeated in the state House.

The next legislative session will be the first where Democrats have a majority in the House of Delegates since 1997 and in the state Senate since 2014. Along with Gov. Ralph Northam (D), Democrats will have trifecta control in Virginia for the first time since 1993. The House of Delegates elections were the first ones conducted using a remedial map after a federal district court ruled in June 2018 that 11 state legislative districts were an illegal racial gerrymander. The state Senate elections were held using district boundaries enacted in April 2011. 

Democrats will control the redistricting process after the 2020 Census. Virginia’s congressional and state legislative district boundaries are set by the state legislature and subject to veto by the governor. 

Virginia State Senate elections →
Virginia House of Delegates elections


New York City approves ranked-choice voting for city primaries 

New York City became the most populous jurisdiction in the U.S. to approve the use of ranked-choice voting. Seventy-three percent of voters approved Question 1, which provides for ranked-choice voting in primary and special elections for mayor, public advocate, comptroller, borough president, and city council members. Question 1 allows voters to rank up to five candidates—including a write-in candidate—in order of preference and also makes changes to the timing of elections to fill vacancies and city council redistricting.

Reeves elected governor of Mississippi 

Republican Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves defeated state Attorney General Jim Hood (D), Bob Hickingbottom (Constitution), and David Singletary (I) to become Mississippi’s third consecutive Republican governor. Reeves received 52% of the vote to Hood’s 47% with 99% of precincts reporting. Alongside the Republican majorities won in both chambers of the state legislature, Mississippi will remain a Republican trifecta. Mississippi Republicans also held the secretary of state’s office and gained the state attorney general’s office, winning a triplex—control of each of the top three executive offices—for the first time since 1876.

North Carolina mayoral election decided by two votes 

Incumbent Bluferd Eldreth was re-elected mayor of Jefferson, North Carolina, over challenger William Spencer by a margin of two votes, 20 to 18. Jefferson is located in the western part of the state about 85 miles northwest of Winston-Salem. For the first time ever, Ballotpedia covered all local elections across an entire state—North Carolina. This included races in 503 cities, towns, and villages, nine school districts, and 17 special districts—a total of 529 local elections!

Incumbent Turner leads Houston mayoral race 

Incumbent Sylvester Turner leads in Houston’s mayoral race but may fall short of the threshold needed to avoid a runoff election. As of 1 a.m. Central Time, Turner had received 47% of the vote with Tony Buzbee second with 30% of the vote in the 12-candidate field. If no candidate receives a majority, a runoff election will take place December 14. Policy debate in the race centered on Turner’s record during his first term, especially regarding his handling of the city’s budget and spending priorities.

Texas voters reject first constitutional amendment since 2011 

Texas voters rejected Proposition 1, which would have allowed elected municipal judges to hold office in multiple municipalities at the same time. With 99% of precincts reporting, the vote was 66% against and 34% in favor. Proposition 1 is the first constitutional amendment to be rejected in Texas since 2011, when three measures were defeated. It was put on the ballot by the state legislature, where it received unanimous support from Republicans and Democrats in both legislative chambers.

The current Texas Constitution was adopted in 1876. Voters had decided 677 proposed amendments before 2019, approving 74% of them. Ninety-one percent of proposed amendments have been approved since 1995.

Tucson voters reject sanctuary city initiative

Voters in Tucson, Arizona, decided against making their city the first in the state with sanctuary city policies, with over 70% of voters rejecting Proposition 205. The citizen initiative would have:

  • declared in the city code that Tucson was a sanctuary city; 

  • restricted law enforcement officers from actions to determine a person’s immigration status under certain conditions; 

  • prohibited officers from contacting federal law enforcement agencies to determine a person’s immigration status; and

  • prohibited city employees from inquiring about a person’s immigration status, among other policies.

New Jersey state Assembly races yet to be called 

Elections were held for all 80 seats in the New Jersey General Assembly, although media outlets had only declared winners in 52 seats as of 2 a.m. CT. Democrats had won 38 seats and were leading in at least six others. It takes 41 seats to gain partisan control of the chamber. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 54-26 majority. Democrats have held majorities in both houses of the New Jersey state legislature since 2004.

 



Buttigieg and Castro air new ads in Iowa

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 6, 2019: Pete Buttigieg and Julián Castro are airing new ads in Iowa. Donald Trump is holding a campaign rally in Monroe, Louisiana. blank    blankblank   


 Presidential Facebook ads, 2019-2020 (October 27 - November 2, 2019)

Notable Quotes of the Day

“Tuesday’s results continued to demonstrate GOP problems in the suburbs since Trump took office. The latest was in northern Kentucky in the Cincinnati suburbs, where Bevin won in 2015 and Beshear won in 2019. Or in northern Mississippi, in the Memphis suburbs where the GOP margin in DeSoto County dropped from 61 points to 20 points, according to Ryan Matsumoto, a contributing analyst to Inside Elections. These are just the latest pieces of evidence after Democrat Dan McCready’s overperformance in the Charlotte suburbs from 2018 to the 2019 special election in North Carolina’s 9th District. It should be particularly concerning for President Trump in his efforts to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas in 2020.”

– Nathan GonzalesRoll Call

“Yes, Trump went to Kentucky on Monday night to stump for Bevin. And, yes, he told the crowd at a Lexington rally that losing the governor’s race would send ‘a really bad message.’

But every other major GOP candidate seeking statewide office in the Bluegrass State won their race. The governor’s mansion in Mississippi is going to stay red (after Trump also stumped in that state recently). And Virginia isn’t a purple state so the Democrats’ sweep there isn’t as foreshadowing as it might be in other states.”

– Ledyard KingUSA Today

Democrats

  • Michael Bennet is filing for the New Hampshire primary on Wednesday and holding campaign events in the state.

  • In a Medium post on Tuesday, Joe Biden wrote about healthcare and responded to Elizabeth Warren’s criticism that he was running in the “wrong presidential primary.” He said that the comments are “representative of an elitism that working and middle class people do not share.”

  • Cory Booker wrote in an op-ed in Essence that the Democratic nominee must be able to build a diverse coalition.

  • Steve Bullock spoke about winning in red states during an interview on MSNBC’s Meet the Press Daily.

  • Pete Buttigieg released his sixth television ad in Iowa, which highlights his speech at the Liberty and Justice Dinner in Iowa. 

  • Julián Castro is airing a new ad in Iowa comparing his policies to Trump’s as part of a $50,000 ad buy.

  • Kamala Harris will campaign in New Hampshire on Wednesday and Thursday.

  • After filing for the New Hampshire primary on Wednesday, Amy Klobuchar will hold a rally at the New Hampshire State House and attend several town halls.

  • The Bernie Sanders campaign said the media was ignoring Sanders’ poll performance, which the campaign described as a surge in its daily newsletter.

  • Joe Sestak spoke on Newsmax about Mexican cartels, the border, and the impeachment inquiry.

  • Tom Steyer is attending a town hall in Milwaukee on Wednesday.

  • Warren released a veterans policy plan on Tuesday. She said she would propose pay raises at or above the Employment Cost Index, increase employment for military spouses, and expand DOD childcare centers, among other policies.

  • Marianne Williamson is speaking at Scripps College and Pomonal College in California Wednesday.

  • Andrew Yang is returning to New Hampshire Wednesday for a three-day tour beginning in Portsmouth.

Republicans

  • Donald Trump will hold a rally in Monroe, Louisiana, on Wednesday night. The state is holding a gubernatorial runoff election on Nov. 16.

Flashback: November 6, 2015

Reps. Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo endorsed Marco Rubio.



Happy Election Day!

The Daily Brew

One of my favorite days of the year – Election day! Voters go to the polls across the country today, and we’ll be here all day, keeping the servers churning and ready to update our results the moment polls close. We’re following along with a quick primer below—whether you are voting yourself, or just curious about the rest of the nation’s elections activity. 

Here’s a list of resources to guide you today

Haven’t voted yet? Click here and preview your ballot with our sample ballot tool.

Not sure when voting ends where you are or when results will start coming in? Click here to see a chart of poll closing times for those states holding statewide elections.

Who is going to win? Bookmark this page to follow election results later tonight. You can also see which battleground races we’ll be watching closely.

Want to receive late-breaking updates? Click here to find us on Twitter.

Preview your ballot
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Register for our Nov. 6 briefing to discuss all of Tuesday’s notable election results 

Join me on Wednesday for a briefing to discuss the results of Tuesday’s key elections, such as the governor’s races in Kentucky and Mississippi, state legislative elections in Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia, and municipal elections in Seattle and Houston. We’ll discuss who won, the status of any races that are too close to call, and how the results may affect politics and policymaking—including redistricting.

The briefing is at 1:30 p.m. Central Time, so click the link below to register and secure your spot. And if you can’t watch it live, we’ll send you a link to the recording when it’s available so you can catch up on your schedule.  

 

 



Castro fires staff in New Hampshire and South Carolina

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 5, 2019: Julián Castro is firing staff in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Donald Trump held a rally Monday night in Lexington, Kentucky. blank    blankblank   


 

How many noteworthy candidates were running for president at this point in the 2016 election?

Notable Quote of the Day

“A confluence of factors — ranging from the historic size of the primary field to the strategic considerations of top-tier candidates — has turned Iowa into the essential early state in 2020. Since July, candidates have made more than 800 appearances in the state, far surpassing totals in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, according to candidate trackers maintained by the Des Moines Register and news outlets in the other three states.

Iowa is where Pete Buttigieg, still a single-digit candidate nationally, is surging, where Elizabeth Warren has overtaken Joe Biden and where the former vice president — still leading nationally — is at risk of getting cut down. And it is serving as the fulcrum for a host of other candidates — among them Sens. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris — who hope to leverage their performance across the state’s 99 counties into relevance in the states that follow.”

– David Siders, Politico

 

Democrats

Republicans

  • Mark Sanford spoke with the Southern New Hampshire Libertarian Party on Monday.

  • Donald Trump held a rally Monday night in Lexington, Kentucky, where he called on voters to support incumbent Republican Gov. Matt Bevin.

Flashback: November 5, 2015

Bernie Sanders signed a joint fundraising agreement with the Democratic National Committee.

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Illinois House approves changes to state public-sector labor relations law

On Oct. 29, the Illinois House of Representatives approved SB1784, legislation proposing a series of changes to the state’s public-sector labor relations laws.

What does the bill propose?
As originally introduced on Feb. 16, SB1784 did not have any bearing on public-sector unions. Instead, it dealt with state government ethics. The House amended the bill to make the following changes to the Illinois Public Labor Relations Act and the Illinois Educational Labor Relations Act:

  • Require public employers to furnish unions with a complete list of the names and addresses of the public-sector workers in their bargaining units.
  • Prohibit employers from discouraging employees from participating in unions.
  • Permits union representatives to meet with new employees during working hours.
  • Permits unions to limit the time periods during which members can resign or rescind their dues deductions.
  • Declares that public employers and public-sector unions cannot be held liable for claims involving the payment of dues or agency fees before June 27, 2018, when the U.S. Supreme Court issued its decision in Janus v. AFSCME.
    • In Janus, the high court held that compelling workers to pay dues or fees to a union violates workers’ First Amendment rights.

What are the reactions?

  • Rep. Jay Hoffmann (D), who voted in favor of the bill, said, “This is an attempt to restore employee rights and lay out what public employers in Illinois can and cannot do with regard to union representation and an employee joining a union. This does not overturn the Janus decision, this is post-Janus.”
  • Joe Tabor, a policy analyst for Illinois Policy, said, “Public employees are ill-served by SB1784, which would restrict the exercise of their constitutional rights to distance themselves from unions and their politics. It would empower unions to indoctrinate new employees and call workers’ cell phones. It tries to legislate after the fact by stopping litigation to recover workers’ money that should never have been taken from them, which is sure to draw court challenges.”

What comes next?
The House voted 93-23 to approve SB1784, with 73 Democrats and 20 Republicans voting in favor of the bill. Because the House amended the bill as passed by the Senate, it must now return to the Senate for a concurrence vote. If the Senate approves the amended legislation, it will then go to Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D). In the House, Democrats hold 74 of 118 seats. In the Senate, they hold 40 of 59 seats.

The big picture

Number of relevant bills by state

We are currently tracking 105 pieces of legislation dealing with public-sector employee union policy. On the map below, a darker shade of green indicates a greater number of relevant bills. Click here for a complete list of all the bills we’re tracking.

Union Station map November 1, 2019.png

Number of relevant bills by current legislative status

Union Station status chart November 1, 2019.png

Number of relevant bills by partisan status of sponsor(s)

Union Station partisan chart November 1, 2019.png

Recent legislative actions

Below is a complete list of legislative actions taken since our last issue. Bills are listed in alphabetical order, first by state then by bill number.

  • Illinois SB1784: This bill would require that public-sector union representatives be granted an opportunity to meet with new hires. It would require employers to furnish unions with worker information, including addresses, contact numbers, and email addresses. It would also permit unions to limit the period during which members can resign and rescind dues deduction authorizations.
    • House amended and passed Oct. 29. Sent to Senate for concurrence.
  • New Hampshire SB19: This bill would prohibit disclosure of information regarding a public employee’s home address, email address, or phone number. An exemption would be made for unions.
    • Labor, Industrial and Rehabilitative Services work session schedule Oct. 30.


It’s Election Day Eve!

The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Monday, November 4, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. It’s the day before Election Day 2019
  2. Looking ahead
  3. An update on our Candidate Conversations portal

It’s the day before Election Day 2019

There is one day left before voters have their say in 2019’s odd-year elections. Although there are no federal elections this year, Ballotpedia is covering elections for 2,983 offices in 27 states. Here’s a summary of what we’re following Nov. 5:

  • Two states—Kentucky and Mississippi—are holding elections for 21 state executive positions, including races for governor and lieutenant governor;

  • Twelve states are holding contests for 413 state legislative seats, including special elections. The majority of these races are taking place in Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia with 174, 80, and 140 state legislative seats up for election in each state, respectively;

  • Three states are holding elections for seven state court judgeships;

  • Five states are holding elections for 81 local court judgeships;

  • Nineteen states are holding elections for 2,201 municipal positions—including for mayor, city council, and other city and county offices;

  • Sixteen states are holding elections for 260 school board seats. 

Ballotpedia is also covering 32 statewide ballot measures being decided by voters in seven states, as well as 141 local ballot measures in jurisdictions within 17 different states. This includes all local measures appearing on the ballot within the 100 largest cities in the U.S. by population, plus all local measures in North Carolina and California. 

We take our mission very seriously to prepare neutral and unbiased content about these elections. We are honored that you have placed your trust in us. Thank you.

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Looking ahead 

Tomorrow: Happy Election Day! We’ll share some last-minute resources including the times that polls close in your state. 

Wednesday: We’ll provide election results and analysis for all the notable races—including governor’s races in Kentucky and Mississippi, state legislative elections in Virginia, and municipal elections in Seattle and Houston. We’re also hosting a briefing discussing these key contests, the status of any races that are too close to call, and whether any trifectas and triplexes changed as a result. The briefing is at 1:30 p.m. Central Time, so click here to register and secure your spot. If you can’t attend, we’ll send you a link to the recording when it’s available.  

Thursday: There’s more analysis coming your way, including late results and updates on what happened in ballot measure elections across the country. And we’re hosting another briefing where our ballot measures expert Josh Altic breaks down the results of key statewide and local measures and discusses trends that are emerging nationwide. You can reserve your spot for that briefing here.

An update on our Candidate Conversations portal

Last week, I introduced you to one of our new projects—Candidate Conversations—that we’ve developed with EnCiv to help voters get to know their candidates as people. Candidate Conversations is an online video portal where candidates can answer questions, and you can watch those answers, anytime, for free, to learn more about your candidates. 

We are excited to announce we’ve received submissions from three of the four candidates running in the San Francisco district attorney’s race on Nov. 5—Chesa Boudin, Leif Dautch, and Suzy Loftus.  

Click the link below to watch the conversation! This project is in beta form, so I’d love to hear your feedback.

 

 



O’Rourke drops out of 2020 race, 17 Democrats remain

 Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 4, 2019: Beto O’Rourke announced that he was dropping out of the presidential race. Elizabeth Warren proposed a 6 percent tax on wealth over $1 billion to fund Medicare for All.


There are 14 new candidates running since last week, including one Republican and two Libertarians. In total, 930 individuals are currently filed with the FEC to run for president.

Notable Quote of the Day

“The vaunted event that catapulted Obama to stardom [the Liberty and Justice Celebration] was reduced to just another candidate cattle call, long on rhetoric but short on results.

Lu Ann Pedrick, a Des Moines-based party activist … said the candidate field is just too large. That means no single candidate really has the time to spin a narrative. She thinks even Obama would be lagging somewhere towards the back of the pack in an environment like this.”

– Daniel Newhauser, Vice

Democrats

Republicans

  • Donald Trump held a rally in Tupelo, Mississippi, to campaign for Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves in his run for governor of Mississippi. Trump discussed the impeachment inquiry, the Democratic primary, and the media. An estimated 10,000 people attended the event.
  • In a CNN interview Sunday, Joe Walsh said Fox News and conservative talk radio were lying to and manipulating listeners on the impeachment inquiry.
  • Bill Weld spoke at the No Labels Problem Solver Convention on Sunday in Manchester, New Hampshire.

General Election Updates

Special Guest Analysis

Jim Ellis is a 35-year political veteran who now analyzes election data for major corporations, associations, and legislative advocacy firms. He is president of EllisInsight, LLC. We invited him to share analysis on the presidential election.

It’s common practice on an election-eve for political prognosticators to predict what may unfold next election cycle based on today’s voting patterns. The disparate elections to be decided this Nov. 5, however, leave us little salient prediction material.

Turnout is expected to exceed normal voting trends in states with major elections at the top of the ballot, a pattern that is already being projected for the 2020 cycle. All indicators suggest that we will see record participation in next year’s presidential contest, with some estimates exceeding 150 million votes. In 2016, a record 136,792,535 people cast their ballots.

Three governors will be elected in November: one each in Kentucky and Mississippi on Nov. 5, and another following the Louisiana runoff on Nov. 16.  State legislative elections are on tap in Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia. Louisiana runoffs for state House and Senate races will also be held on Nov. 16.

The statewide races, in particular, have unique characteristics that don’t lend themselves to making predictions about the upcoming presidential race. In Kentucky, Gov. Matt Bevin (R) was a surprise winner in 2015 and has been unpopular almost since his inauguration. Although Kentucky is one of the strongest Republican states at the federal level, Democrats can still win election to state office.

Attorney General Andy Beshear is the Democratic nominee. He is the son of former Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear (D), who defeated an unpopular Republican state chief executive back in 2007.

Mississippi Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) faces four-term Attorney General Jim Hood (D) in the election to succeed term-limited incumbent Gov. Phil Bryant (R). While polls show a tight race, Hood is staying away from running as a national Democrat. Even if Hood were to upset Reeves, little could be extrapolated for future races.  

In Louisiana, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) was forced into a runoff with Baton Rouge developer Eddie Rispone (R). Though the GOP ad producers are trying, it has been difficult to pin the liberal label on Edwards since he signed the state’s new heartbeat abortion law. Additionally, should Rispone unseat the Democratic governor, the result would align with normal electoral trends, given the state’s Republican voting history.

The Democrats are poised to win control of the Virginia legislature, but even that won’t be transformational. The state has been moving left for several years and the Democrats won a court redistricting decision that makes the legislative maps more favorable. Any change in party control would actually be closer to the new normal vote in the state rather than establishing a trendsetting benchmark.

Though we will see some interesting results on Nov. 5, the vote totals won’t be a harbinger for next year. We should analyze each of the winning campaigns individually instead of proclaiming a trend prediction.

What We’re Reading

Flashback: November 4, 2015

Ben Carson topped the RealClearPolitics polling average for the first time. Donald Trump previously held the first position for 107 days.