Welcome to the Wednesday, Nov. 18, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Republicans to gain at least 30 state legislative seats in districts that intersect with Pivot Counties
2. Alaska voters approve ranked-choice voting measure
3. Rep. Cedric Richmond named member of Biden’s senior staff, will resign from Congress

Republicans to gain at least 30 state legislative seats in districts that intersect with Pivot Counties

Today we look at legislative races in the nation’s 206 Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are the 206 counties that Ballotpedia identified as voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. There are 705 legislative districts—in whole or in part—in these counties. 

Republicans will have at least 30 more state legislators representing these districts, and Democrats will have at least 22 fewer.

Because some of the districts are multi-member districts, there are 800 legislators in the 705 districts. As of Nov. 16, Republicans will control 473 seats, a gain of at least 30 relative to immediately after the 2018 elections and Democrats stand to control 266. Final control of 58 seats remains too close to call, and three seats will be held by third party or independent legislators. Even if Democrats win all 58 uncalled races, they would still lose a net 22 seats relative to their post-2018 totals. After the 2018 election, Republicans held 443 of these seats to Democrats’ 346.

The table and chart below show the partisan control of all state legislative seats intersecting with Pivot Counties through Nov. 16.

The 800 state legislators who represent districts containing all or part of a Pivot County include 231 state senators (11.9% of all state senators) and 569 state representatives (10.5% of all state representatives). The number of these state legislators increased from 2016 to 2020 due to mid-cycle redistricting in North Carolina.

Learn more

Alaska voters approve ranked-choice voting measure 

Yesterday, Ballotpedia called Alaska Ballot Measure 2, with election results at that time showing the measure passing 50.5% to 49.5%. 

Ballot Measure 2 makes several changes to Alaska’s election policies, including:

• replacing partisan primaries with open top-four primaries for state executive, state legislative, and congressional offices, 
• establishing ranked-choice voting for general elections, including the presidential election, and
• requiring persons and entities who contribute more than $2,000 that was derived from donations, contributions, dues, or gifts to disclose the sources of the contributions.

Alaska will become the first state to adopt top-four primaries for state executive, state legislative, and congressional offices. Like the top-two systems in California and Washington, all candidates will run in a single primary election, regardless of a candidate’s party affiliation. The four candidates receiving the most votes will advance to the general election.

In the general election, voters will elect state and federal candidates using ranked-choice voting (RCV). For state executive, state legislative, and congressional elections, voters will rank the four candidates who advanced from their top-four primaries. If a candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes, he or she will be declared the winner. If no candidate wins a majority, the candidate with the fewest votes would be eliminated, and voters who selected that candidate as their first choice would have their votes redistributed to their second choice. The process continues until two candidates remain. The candidate with the largest number of votes in the final round is the winner.

Alaska becomes the second state to approve ranked-choice voting statewide after Maine approved it in 2016. Eight states contain jurisdictions that have implemented RCV at some level, and another five states contain jurisdictions that have adopted but not yet implemented RCV in local elections.

Ballot Measure 2’s system of top-four primaries and ranked-choice voting general elections will be first used in 2022, which includes the gubernatorial, U.S. House, and a U.S. Senate election in Alaska. 

Learn more

Rep. Cedric Richmond named member of Biden’s senior staff, will resign from Congress

President-Elect Joe Biden’s transition team announced Nov. 17 that U.S. Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-La.) would become Senior Adviser to the President and Director of the White House Office of Public Engagement. When the appointment takes effect, Richmond will resign from his district in the House of Representatives.

Richmond was first elected to the House in 2010 and was re-elected Nov. 3, receiving 64% of the vote in Louisiana’s majority-vote system. Richmond chaired the Congressional Black Caucus from November 2016 to December 2018. Before joining Congress, Richmond was a member of the Louisiana House of Representatives from 2000 to 2011.

Vacancies in the House of Representatives are filled by special election, and Richmond’s resignation will trigger the first special election of the 117th Congress. Richmond did not say when his resignation would become official. Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) said, “I will consult with Congressman Richmond about the timing of his resignation from Congress and with the Secretary of State and other leaders in his district about the best time for a special election to fill his seat when it is vacant.” Although the special election can be set on any date, Louisiana holds municipal primary elections on March 22, 2021, and municipal general elections on April 24, 2021.

The final partisan composition of the House of Representatives after the Nov. 3 elections has not been determined. A consensus of five media outlets have called enough races to confirm that Democrats will retain their majority.

In 2017, four U.S. House members—Mick Mulvaney (R-S.C.), Mike Pompeo (R-Kan.), Tom Price (R-Ga.), and Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.)—resigned to take positions in President Trump’s administration. In 2009, four U.S. House members—Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), John McHugh (R-N.Y.), Hilda Solis (D-Calif.), and Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.)—resigned to take positions in President Barack Obama’s (D) administration. The party of the outgoing representative won seven of the eight special elections triggered by those resignations. Bill Owens (D-N.Y.) won a special election in November 2009 for McHugh’s seat.

Learn more

Welcome to the Tuesday, Nov. 17, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Introducing Ballotpedia’s supreme court partisanship study
2. Three states split presidential and gubernatorial vote in 2020
3. Alaska state Legislature elections could influence trifecta status, legislature majorities

Introducing Ballotpedia’s supreme court partisanship study

Today, I’m excited to brief you on our newly published State Supreme Court Partisanship Study. 

First, some background. Each state has at least one supreme court, or court of last resort. Oklahoma and Texas each have two such courts, one for civil appeals and one for criminal appeals. The study – a culmination of eight months of research and compilation of raw data – supplies Partisan Confidence Scores for 341 active state supreme court justices on all 52 courts of last resort. 

We gathered a variety of data on each justice and, based on that data, placed each justice into one of five categories indicating our confidence in their affiliations with either the Democratic or Republican Parties. These categories are Strong Democratic Confidence, Mild Democratic Confidence, Indeterminate Confidence, Mild Republican Confidence, and Strong Republican Confidence. Click here to learn more about our methodology.

To be clear – the study does not specifically describe the partisan affiliation of judges. We call our scores Confidence Scores because we believe they provide insight into the degree of confidence we have in each justice’s political leanings because of their previous partisan activity.

Here are some of the key findings from the study:

• Of the 341 justices studied, we assigned Republican scores to 178 (52.2%), Democratic scores to 114 (33.4%), and Indeterminate scores to 49 (14.4%).
• Twenty-seven states (54%) have a majority of justices with Republican scores. Fifteen state supreme courts (30%) have a majority of justices with Democratic scores. Eight state supreme courts (16%) do not have a majority of justices with Democratic scores or Republican scores.
• 39.9% of the population live in a state which has a majority of justices with Democratic scores on the court. 51.1% of citizens live in a state which has a majority of justices with Republican scores on the court. 9% of citizens live in a state with a split court, or a court with a majority of justices with indeterminate partisan leanings. 

Stay tuned for future Brew editions, where we’ll dive deeper into the study’s findings. 

Learn more

Three states split presidential and gubernatorial vote in 2020

Here’s another post-election results analysis for you. Of the 11 states that elected a governor this year, voters in three states (New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Vermont) voted for presidential and gubernatorial candidates of different parties. Voters in at least one other state voted for a presidential candidate opposite its current trifecta status. 

A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds a state’s governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Heading into the 2020 elections, Republicans had 21 state government trifectas, and Democrats had 15. The 14 remaining states had divided government, where neither party had a trifecta.

Following the 2020 elections, Republicans were projected to gain trifecta control in Montana and New Hampshire. The trifecta status of Alaska was not yet determined. If control of Alaska does not change, Republicans will have 23 trifectas (a net gain of two), Democrats will have 15 trifectas, and 12 states will have divided governments (a net loss of two). If Republicans gain a trifecta in Alaska, they will have 24 trifectas to Democrats’ 15 with 11 divided governments.

This year, New Hampshire and Vermont re-elected their Republican governors while also voting for Joe Biden. North Carolina re-elected its Democratic governor while voting a second time for Donald Trump.

Both Montana and West Virginia voted for Donald Trump a second time while also electing a Republican governor. In Montana, Greg Gianforte (R) was elected governor after losing to incumbent Steve Bullock (D) in the 2016 election. In West Virginia, Jim Justice (R) was re-elected. Justice was first elected as a Democrat in 2016 and joined the Republican Party the following year.

In 2016, when all 11 states also held gubernatorial elections, five states split their presidential and gubernatorial votes. Montana, North Carolina, and West Virginia elected Democratic governors while also voting for Donald Trump (R). New Hampshire and Vermont elected Republican governors while also voting for Hillary Clinton (D).

Joe Biden (D) won all 15 states with Democratic trifectas as well as Arizona, which has a Republican trifecta. As of Nov. 16, the results of the presidential election in Georgia, a Republican trifecta, remained too close to call. Four of the five outlets Ballotpedia tracks had called the state for Joe Biden.

Donald Trump (R) won the other 19 Republican trifecta states. Of the 14 states with divided government heading into the election, six voted for Donald Trump and eight for Joe Biden.

Republicans gained trifectas in two states that had divided government before the election: Montana (which voted for Donald Trump) and New Hampshire (which voted for Joe Biden). As of Monday, Republicans stood to also gain a trifecta in Alaska, which voted for Donald Trump, although that state’s final trifecta status remained too close to call.

Learn more

Alaska state Legislature elections could influence trifecta status, legislative majorities

Speaking of trifectas, here’s an update from Alaska.

As of Monday, Republicans led in both legislative chambers, although several races remained too close to call. Local political observers suggest that minority coalitions had the potential to form in both chambers. Republicans won a 12-seat majority in the state Senate, with one election in a Republican-held district too close to call. However, observers reported that policy disputes in the Republican caucus left the possibility of a minority coalition open. Republicans won at least 19 seats in the state House, with 12 going to Democrats and one to an independent. Control of the eight remaining seats was too close to call.

In 2018, Republicans had a majority in the state Senate, gained control of the state House, and won the governorship. Although Republicans won a 23-16 majority of House seats in the 2018 election, divisions within the house caucus prevented them from taking formal control of the chamber and achieving a state government trifecta. A bipartisan coalition eventually organized a majority in which the two parties divided leadership and committee positions. Although they lost one seat in the Alaska state Senate, Republicans maintained a 13-7 majority.

Even with a majority in the Senate, Republicans could fail to unify, with some members possibly joining with the seven Democratic senators to form a coalition like the one created in the House in 2018. Eleven votes are necessary to name a new Senate leader and control the legislative process. In the House, the outcome of uncalled elections could affect the composition of the bipartisan coalition formed in 2018, and Republicans would have to form a united governing majority in both the House and Senate to achieve a trifecta.

Click the link below to follow along with us as we track results.
Learn more

Welcome to the Monday, Nov. 16, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Under Trump, Republican-appointed majorities in circuit courts doubled
2. Wyoming amendment concerning municipal debt for sewage systems fails due to non-votes
3. Upcoming elections

Number of federal circuit courts with a majority of judges appointed by Republican presidents has doubled in Trump administration

From time to time, we’ve written in the Brew about the pace and status of judicial confirmations by the Trump administration. As 2020 draws to a close, let’s take a look back at the past four years.

Since Donald Trump’s inauguration, the number of federal circuit courts with Republican-appointed majorities has doubled from four to eight. Trump has appointed 52 judges to the 13 federal circuit courts. There are 179 U.S. Court of Appeals judgeships overall.

In January 2017, there were 90 judges appointed by Democrats, 74 judges appointed by Republicans, and 14 vacancies across the circuit courts. In November 2020, there were 80 judges appointed by Democrats, 97 judges appointed by Republicans, and one vacancy.

Of the five circuits that did not flip from majority Democratic-appointed to majority Republican-appointed, all but one kept the same partisan balance. The Ninth Circuit went from an 18-9 split (with two vacancies) before Trump took office to a 16-13 split (with no vacancies). The other four are the First, Tenth, D.C, and Federal Circuits.

All four circuits that were majority Republican-appointed when Trump took office added to that majority. The Fifth Circuit moved from R+5 to R+7, the Sixth Circuit from R+5 to R+6, the Seventh Circuit from R+2 to R+6, and the Eighth Circuit from R+6 to R+9.

Trump made the most appointments (10) to the Ninth Circuit. He made six appointments each to the Fifth, Sixth, and Eleventh Circuits. The only circuits without a Trump appointee as of November 2020 were the First Circuit and the Federal Circuit.

Overall, Trump had made 220 federal judicial appointments through Nov. 1 of this year. This is the highest number up to that date in a president’s first term since Jimmy Carter (D), who appointed 260 federal judges in that time period. Bill Clinton (D) follows Trump, having appointed 203 judges during the same time. 

Learn more

Wyoming amendment concerning municipal debt for sewage systems fails due to non-votes

We’ve been tracking and updating you on the November 2020 ballot measure results as they come in. Here’s an interesting one that may have been buried under all the others.

A Wyoming measure designed to remove the limit on debt a municipality could incur for sewer projects failed after 11% of the ballots cast either left the measure blank or filled in both “for” and “against.” The measure failed since it required approval from a majority of voters casting a ballot at the election, which means leaving Amendment A blank was the equivalent of voting against it. 

• Total ballots cast at the election: 278,503 (100%)
• Total votes for Amendment A: 126,589 (45.45%)
• Total votes against Amendment A: 120,808 (43.38%)
• Undervotes and overvotes on Amendment A: 31,106 (11.17%)

In other words, the measure received a plurality of votes cast, but it required a majority based on the total number of ballots cast for it to be approved. 

Five other states besides Wyoming have the requirement that a majority of voters must approve a constitutional amendment. Four—Utah, Minnesota, Hawaii, and Illinois—require constitutional amendments to be approved by a majority of all voters at the election, and one (Tennessee) requires approval from a number equal to a majority of all voters casting a ballot for governor. Nebraska, Mississippi, and Massachusetts have provisions that require approval from a certain percentage, ranging from 30% to 40%, of all voters at the election. Provisions like these mean that a certain number of undervotes on an amendment could prevent the measure from passing despite approval from a majority of votes cast on the measure itself.

Here are some background facts:

• From 1996 through 2018, the Wyoming State Legislature referred 26 constitutional amendments to the ballot. Voters approved 18 and rejected eight of the referred amendments. 
• Four of the eight rejected measures were defeated despite receiving more yes votes than no votes. 
• All of the amendments were referred to the ballot for general elections during even-numbered election years. 
• The average number of amendments appearing on the general election ballot was two. 
• The approval rate at the ballot box was 69.23% during the 22-year period from 1996 through 2018. The rejection rate was 30.77%.

Ballotpedia covers local measures that appear on the ballot for voters within the top 100 largest cities in the U.S. Ballotpedia also covers all local measures in California and all statewide ballot measures. For the latest on ballot measures, click here subscribe to our State Ballot Measure Monthly newsletter. 

Learn more

Upcoming elections

After the whirlwind of the Nov. 3 elections, you might think elections are over for this year. However, residents in several states still have upcoming races in November and December. Here’s a look at what’s coming up:

• Alabama: A special general election and a special primary will be held for a state House and state Senate district, respectively, on Nov. 17.
• Mississippi: A general runoff election will be held for a school district and state House district on Nov. 24.
• Arkansas: A general runoff election will be held for a school district on Dec. 1.
• Georgia: General runoff elections will be held for statewide races and one federal race on Dec. 1.
• Louisiana: General statewide elections will be held on Dec. 5.
• Texas: A general runoff election will be held for mayoral and city council seats on Dec. 12.

There is also a potential runoff election for the regular U.S. Senate race in Georgia, which would be held on Jan. 5. 

The runoffs for statewide and federal offices in Georgia are on separate dates to allow enough time to send and receive military and overseas ballots.

We’ll be covering the Georgia elections in a regular newsletter starting later this week. Stay tuned for more details!
Learn more

Welcome to the Wednesday, Nov. 11, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. 96 current members of Congress have served in the armed forces 
2. Five states have certified their Nov. 3 election results
3. Eleven states, Washington D.C., have active travel restrictions due to COVID-19

96 current members of Congress have served in the armed forces 

Ninety-six members—18%—of the current Congress (pre-Nov. 3 election) have served in the armed forces. Of those, 66 are Republicans, and 30 are Democrats. Fourteen of these veterans retired or sought other offices in the 2020 elections, meaning they will not return for the 117th Congress in January.

Of the others, 66 won their re-election campaigns, six were Senators not up for re-election this year, and six are in races that are not yet called. Four—Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.), Steve Watkins (R-Kan.), Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), and Denver Riggleman (R-Va.)—lost their bid for re-election.

• Of the 96 veterans serving in the 116th Congress, 73 served on active duty with one of the four main branches of the service—15 in the Air Force, 36 in the Army, 15 in the Marine Corps, and eight in the Navy. 
• U.S. Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-Miss.) served in both the Army and Marine Corps. 
• Twelve members of Congress served in the National Guard, and 11 have served in the reserves. 

According to the American Enterprise Institute, there were 100 veterans in the 115th Congress and 101 in the 114th Congress.

President Woodrow Wilson (D) recognized November 11 as Armistice Day in 1919 to commemorate the armistice agreement that ended World War I in 1918. Congress recognized Nov. 11 as a legal holiday to honor veterans of World War I in 1926. It changed the name from Armistice Day to Veteran’s Day in 1954 to further commemorate the service of veterans in World War II and the Korean War.

Five states have certified their Nov. 3 election results

Election results reported by media sources are regularly referred to as unofficial on Election Night and the days that follow. But when do unofficial election returns become official? Each state has its own process and timetable for canvassing and certifying results in every election.

In a canvass, local and state election officials verify that each ballot cast in the election was correctly counted. Certification is the process where election results are made official. The two processes are closely related, and some states, localities, and commentators use the terms interchangeably to describe the entire process of counting ballots and formalizing results.

Five states have already certified their Nov. 3 election results. Delaware was the first state to do so on Nov. 5. Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Vermont certified their results on Nov. 10. Two states—South Carolina and Wyoming—will certify election results today.

Forty-six states have laws establishing deadlines for certification. Four states—Hawaii, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Tennessee—have no specific date for certification.

The election certification date affects when a recount can occur. A recount is a process where election officials re-tabulate the votes cast in an election to verify the accuracy of the original results. Recount laws and the timing of when a recount can be triggered or requested varies by state. Some states allow for recounts to occur after canvassing but before results are made official through certification. Other states require both the canvassing and certification of results before beginning a recount process. 

The chart below shows state election result certification deadlines relative to the Nov. 3 general election. A longer bar indicates a date further from the general election. Ballotpedia compiled this information from a review of state laws, election administration manuals, election calendars, and inquiries of election officials.

Learn more

Eleven states, Washington D.C., have active travel restrictions due to COVID-19

Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, 25 states have issued at least one executive order restricting interstate travel. While each state’s order is different, they generally required travelers from certain states to self-quarantine and limit exposure to others for a specified period of time upon entering the state. In some instances, travelers could be exempt from the requirement if they took or presented a negative COVID-19 test taken within a certain number of days of their arrival.

Of the 25 executive orders issued by governors or state agencies placing restrictions on out-of-state visitors, at least 14 have been rescinded. Eleven states and Washington D.C. currently have active travel restrictions.

For example, Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) announced a new advisory Nov. 4 that requires visitors to the city to take a COVID-19 test within 72 hours of arriving in the district. Visitors who are in the city for longer than three days are asked to take a test within 3-5 days of arrival. The advisory asks those who test positive or come into contact with someone who tested positive to refrain from entering the city.

Our Documenting America’s Path to Recovery newsletter tracks the status of reopening in all 50 states and summarizes major changes due to the coronavirus pandemic in politics, government, and elections. It covers the current status of school closures and reopenings, stay-at-home orders, noteworthy lawsuits, travel restrictions, mask mandates, eviction and foreclosure policies and more. 

Documenting America’s Path to Recovery is published every week on Tuesdays and Thursdays—click here to subscribe and get Thursday’s edition delivered to your email!

Learn more