January 29, 2020: Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are the subject of two new negative ad campaigns in Iowa. Donald Trump held a campaign rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, on Tuesday night.
“But even setting aside that there are more competitive candidates in Iowa this year than ever before, there are two other things that make the 2020 Democratic race in Iowa especially close. First, Sanders, whose Iowa polling average is just a hair ahead of Biden’s, isn’t polling that high for a front-runner. At 22.6 percent, he has the second-lowest polling average for a leading candidate one week before the caucuses. (Paul sat at 21.5 percent in 2012.) Second, there are three contenders polling above 15 percent, which is tied for the most candidates in any presidential election cycle.
But a fourth candidate, Warren, is just short of the 15 percent mark, so this year’s caucuses could produce a historic result: Since the start of the modern primary era there’s never been a major-party contest in Iowa where more than three candidates won at least 15 percent of the vote statewide. Moreover, since 1992, when the Democratic Party implemented some of the rules that continue to define its nomination races, there has not been a single Democratic primary or caucus in any state or territory in which more than three candidates have won at least 15 percent of the vote statewide. Although Warren has fallen slightly below the 15 percent mark, she also just got an endorsement from the Des Moines Register, which might help her reverse her polling slide in the state. So if Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg and Warren all go on to finish above 15 percent, it would be a first.”
– Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight
Democrats
Michael Bennet plans to submit at least two questions in the impeachment trial on Wednesday about foreign policy and precedents related to personal benefit and political gain.
Rep. Alma Adams (N.C.), a member of the Congressional Black Caucus, endorsedJoe Biden on Tuesday. Biden aides discussed the possibility of a caucus deal with an aide to Amy Klobuchar, whereby voters in certain precincts would be encouraged to support one candidate over the other to avoid both failing to meet the viability threshold. No deal was made, The New York Times reported.
Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.) launched a TV and digital ad campaign in Iowa criticizing impeachment and Biden.
Michael Bloomberg issued his LGBT policy platform on Tuesday, which included passing the Equality Act and appointing a Special Envoy on LGBT issues at the State Department.
Pete Buttigieg is hosting town halls across Iowa on Wednesday, including in Jefferson, Ames, Webster City, Mason City, and New Hampton.
John Delaney will begin his final campaign in Iowa on Thursday with stops in Muscatine and Cedar Rapids.
Amy Klobuchar campaigned in Iowa on Tuesday night before returning to Washington, D.C., for the impeachment trial. She also released her final two ads in the state, “99” and “It’s About You.”
Bernie Sanders made a $2.5 million television ad buy in California and Texas, the two largest Super Tuesday states.
Democratic Majority for Israel launched an anti-Sanders ad campaign in Iowa on Wednesday.
Tom Steyer is holding several town halls across Iowa on Wednesday, including stops in Knoxville, Ottumwa, and Fairfield.
Elizabeth Warren issued her infectious disease policy on Tuesday. She called for increasing funding for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Public Health Emergency Preparedness cooperative agreement, among other agencies and programs.
Andrew Yang continues to hold town halls across Iowa on Wednesday.
Republicans
Donald Trump held a campaign rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, on Tuesday night. He discussed impeachment, the economy, and immigration.
January 28, 2020: Pete Buttigieg, Tom Steyer, and Elizabeth Warren are airing new ads in Iowa. Michael Bloomberg became the first 2020 presidential candidate to visit all 14 Super Tuesday states.
“Political experts in the state told me that the vast majority of New Hampshire’s undeclared voters aren’t really independent in the true sense of the word; they are typically Democrats or Republicans who don’t like labels and want flexibility. And while independents like Dustin can certainly juice a candidate’s numbers (they helped give independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders his historic 22-point win in 2016 and propelled John McCain to victory in 2008), they’re typically not enough to swing an election.
‘Nobody’s ever won because they won the independents,’ said Andy Smith, a University of New Hampshire pollster. Smith, who has polled voters in the state for decades, told me no candidate since 1972 has won without capturing a plurality of the state’s registered voters.
Undeclared voters’ ‘influence is greatly exaggerated,’ he said. ‘Feared, but exaggerated.’”
Bennet said he would spend any available time away from the impeachment trial in New Hampshire, including Feb. 3, when the Iowa caucuses take place.
Politico reported that Joe Biden was focusing on Iowa and Nevada and had scaled back spending in New Hampshire. His first ad buy of the year in New Hampshire came on Monday for $105,000.
After campaigning in Vermont and Maine on Monday, Michael Bloomberg became the first 2020 presidential candidate to visit all 14 Super Tuesday states.
Pete Buttigieg launched his final ad in Iowa on Monday. He says in the clip that it’s time to turn “to a bold vision for the next generation.”
Tulsi Gabbard will campaign in North Conway, New Hampshire, on Tuesday. She crossed the donor threshold for the Feb. 7 debate but has not yet met the polling requirement.
Deval Patrick discussed his campaign strategy in an interview on MSNBC’s Morning Joe on Monday.
Sanders launched his first television ads in Nevada. The ads, two in English and one in Spanish, focus on economic issues and healthcare.
Tom Steyer is holding a town hall in Ankeny, Iowa, on Tuesday. He is airing a new ad in the four early nominating states that features Greenwood City Councilwoman Edith Childs.
Warren is airing two new ads in Iowa: one features her Republican family members and the other writer Roxane Gay.
Andrew Yang continues his bus tour across Iowa on Tuesday with town halls in Perry and Nevada.
January 27, 2020: Andrew Yang qualified for the Feb. 7 debate in New Hampshire. The Des Moines Register endorsed Elizabeth Warren and The New Hampshire Union Leader endorsed Amy Klobuchar.
How many times has an incumbent president run for re-election with a different running mate than when they were first elected?
“The Iowa Democratic Party has been preparing for record-breaking turnout for more than a year, driven both by Democrats’ angst about President Donald Trump and by an unusually large field of candidates — many of them with their own significant, independent turnout operations. The state party chairman, Troy Price, said the party is anticipating more caucus-goers than in 2008, which set a record when 239,000 Democratic voters participated, lifting Obama to victory.
‘The winner is always who’s bringing a bunch of new [voters],’ said Sue Dvorsky, a former Iowa Democratic Party chairwoman who backed Sen. Kamala Harris before she dropped out of the race.
The difficulty this year, she said, is that new voters could go to any number of different candidates. ‘There literally is no historical analogy here,’ she said.”
– David Siders, Natasha Korecki, Elena Schneider and Maya King, Politico
Rep. Cindy Axne (Iowa) endorsedJoe Biden on Saturday. Rep. Seth Moulton (Mass.), a former 2020 presidential candidate, also endorsed Biden on Monday. Biden will continue to campaign in Iowa on Monday with community events in Cedar Falls, Marion, and Iowa City.
Michael Bloomberg campaigned in Tampa and Miami on Sunday, where he launched his national Jewish voter outreach program. On Monday, he said he supported statehood for Puerto Rico. Rep. Scott Peters (Calif.) also endorsed Bloomberg, becoming his fifth congressional endorsement.
Pete Buttigieg discussed abortion, impeachment, race, and his political experience during a televised town hall on Fox News on Sunday.
John Delaney is scheduled to campaign in Iowa on Monday with stops in Cedar Falls and Tripoli.
The Des Moines Register, Iowa’s largest newspaper, endorsedWarren on Saturday.
Andrew Yang will campaign in Iowa on Monday with town halls scheduled in Orange City, Le Mars, Sioux City, and Council Bluffs. He qualified for the Feb. 7 debate in New Hampshire after two new polls were released Sunday.
Republicans
Donald Trump will meet with Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and opposition leader Benny Gantz on Monday to discuss policy in the Middle East.
Joe Walsh discussed conservatism, abortion, climate change, and Trump in his interview with The Des Moines Register.
According to Ballotpedia’s Presidential Nominating Index, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were the candidates most likely to win their respective party’s nominations.
On Jan. 20, an employee of the University of Washington filed a class-action lawsuit in U.S. District Court, alleging that her union, Service Employees International Union (SEIU) 925, had unconstitutionally barred her and other employees from opting out of union membership.
Who are the parties to the suit? The lead plaintiff is Charlene Wagner, a fiscal specialist for the state university system. She is represented by the Freedom Foundation, a nonprofit think tank and litigation firm whose self-described mission is “to advance individual liberty, free enterprise, and limited, accountable government.” The Freedom Foundation is currently involved in approximately 60 lawsuits concerning public-sector union practices in the aftermath of Janus v. AFSCME. The main defendant is Service Employees International Union (SEIU) 925, which represents about 17,000 education workers in Washington, making it one of the largest public-sector unions in the state. The University of Washington is also named as a defendant.
What is at issue? In October 2018, Wagner sought to opt out of union membership and cancel her dues deduction authorization. SEIU 925 informed her that the membership agreement she had signed limited opt-outs to an annual two-week period (in this case, from April 29, 2019, to May 14, 2019).
Wagner and her attorneys argue that “dues are being seized under an unconstitutional [state] law that gives the union sole discretion over who the university – a state actor – is and isn’t authorized to deduct dues from.” They also allege that “a union cannot impose an irrevocability provision, containing a narrow opt-out window, on union nonmembers without a knowing First Amendment waiver.”
What are the reactions? In a press release, Freedom Foundation Senior Litigation Counsel James Abernathy said, “The whole point of Janus is to protect the First Amendment rights of public employees to not support a labor union. State laws that try to limit those rights are unconstitutional regardless of whether they were passed before or after Janus. … We shouldn’t have to keep relitigating the same issues, but SEIU 925 apparently believes it can disregard laws it doesn’t like.”
As of Jan. 24, neither SEIU 925 nor the University of Washington have commented publicly on the suit.
What comes next? The suit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington. It has been assigned to Judge Barbara Rothstein. Rothstein was first appointed to the federal bench by President Jimmy Carter (D). The case name and number are Wagner v. University of Washington (2:20-cv-00091).
We are currently tracking 66 pieces of legislation dealing with public-sector employee union policy. On the map below, a darker shade of green indicates a greater number of relevant bills. Click here for a complete list of all the bills we’re tracking.
Number of relevant bills by current legislative status
Number of relevant bills by partisan status of sponsor(s)
Recent legislative actions
Below is a complete list of relevant legislative actions taken since our last issue. Bills are listed in alphabetical order, first by state then by bill number.
Hawaii SB2770: This bill would require public employers to reimburse unions for costs associated with collective bargaining, contract administration, etc.
Introduced Jan. 17 and passed first reading in Senate Jan. 21.
Iowa HF2074: This bill requires that negotiations between public employers and employees include terms authorizing dues deduction checkoffs for employees who are union members. This bill also repeals a prohibition on public employers from authorizing or administering dues deductions.
Introduced and referred to House Labor Committee Jan. 22.
Iowa HF2075: This bill would eliminate statutory language providing for public-sector union retention and recertification elections. It would also make other changes to the laws governing such elections.
Introduced and referred to House Labor Committee Jan. 22.
Maryland HB214: This bill would grant collective bargaining rights to graduate assistants in the University of Maryland system, Morgan State University, and St. Mary’s College.
House Appropriations Committee hearing scheduled Jan. 23.
New Hampshire HB1290: This bill would require the state public employee labor relations board to permit employees to vote by mail in certification elections.
House Labor, Industrial, and Rehabilitative Services Committee hearing scheduled Jan. 23.
New Hampshire HB1399: This bill would allow a bargaining unit to request certification of its union/representative.
House Labor, Industrial, and Rehabilitative Services Committee hearing scheduled Jan. 23.
New Mexico SB110: This bill would make various amendments to the state’s public-sector labor relations laws.
Introduced Jan. 21.
Washington HB1333: This bill would alter the definition of a public employee under the state’s public employee collective bargaining law.
House Appropriations Committee executive session scheduled Jan. 23.
Washington HB2017: This bill would establish collective bargaining rights for administrative law judges. This bill deals with the same subject as SB6224.
House Appropriations Committee hearing scheduled Jan. 22.
Washington SB6224: This bill would establish collective bargaining rights for administrative law judges. This bill deals with the same subject as HB2017.
Senate Labor and Commerce Committee hearing scheduled Jan. 20.
Every weekday, Ballotpedia tracks the events that matter in the 2020 presidential election.
Now, we’re bringing you the highlights from our daily briefings in a weekly format so you can stay up-to-date on the 2020 election with one weekly email.
Here’s the latest from the campaign trail.
State Spotlight
Notable Quotes of the Week
“The four senators running for the Democratic presidential nomination are leaning heavily on surrogates while they are stuck in Washington serving jury duty on President Donald Trump’s impeachment.
As the Senate trial gets under way in earnest this week, Elizabeth Warren is sending in Representative Ayanna Pressley, Bernie Sanders is putting forward Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Amy Klobuchar is leaning on local officials and Michael Bennet has former Clinton adviser James Carville.
“Whether it’s 10 percent, 12 percent or 15 percent, I suspect the probability our model spits out for a contested convention will strike some of you as high and others of you as low.
On the one hand, a contested convention has historically been a sucker’s bet. Pundits and reporters love to speculate about the possibility. But out of 18 competitive nomination processes since 1972, none has resulted in what’s uniformly regarded as a contested convention, although some arguably were. (I think the 1976 Republican race probably meets the definition of a nomination whose outcome was uncertain when the convention began. Even that was 44 years ago, however.)
On the other hand, a number of other nominations — including the 2008 Democratic race — have come fairly close to resulting in contested conventions. The 2016 Republican convention could also plausibly have been contested if Republicans had used Democrats’ rules. (Trump got a big boost from winner-take-all and winner-take-most states, which Democratic rules do not allow for).”
“Both the radical and the realist models warrant serious consideration. If there were ever a time to be open to new ideas, it is now. If there were ever a time to seek stability, now is it,” the editorial board wrote.
Candidates can qualify for Feb. 7 debate by winning delegates in Iowa
The Democratic National Committee released the criteria to qualify for the eighth primary debate on Feb. 7 in New Hampshire.
Candidates need to meet certain polling and fundraising thresholds similar to the January debate’s requirements or receive at least one pledged delegate in the Iowa caucuses. Candidates have until Feb. 6 to qualify.
He is attending the annual, anti-abortion March for Life in Washington, D.C., on Friday. The organization’s president, Jeanne Mancini, said it will be the first time a president attends the event.
Nina Smith is a Democratic staffer with experience in political communications. Wilson received a bachelor’s degree from Morgan State University and a master’s degree from the George Washington University’s School of Political Management.
Previous campaign work:
2010 Martin O’Malley gubernatorial campaign, political and communications coordinator
Other experience:
2016-present: Megaphone Strategies, managing partner, co-owner, and director of media relations
2016: Young Invincibles, communications director
2014-2016: U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services, press secretary
2013-2014: Office of Gov. Martin O’Malley (D-Md.), press secretary
2013: TheRoot.com, publicist
2012-2013: U.S. Small Business Administration, deputy press secretary
2011-2012: Prince George’s County Office of the County Executive, community liaison for strategic partnerships
2007-2011: Office of Gov. Martin O’Malley (D-Md.)
2009-2011: Public relations liaison
2007-2009: Senior media events coordinator
2005-2007: Maryland Democratic Party, special assistant to the chairman and youth outreach coordinator
“I feel like Pete really gets it, and really understands the challenges women face, whether it’s pay, taking special consideration for our healthcare, and then finally just our safety. These are issues that need to be taken seriously, and it’s very clear in the policy we’re introducing and putting out there that we are taking them seriously.”
January 21, 2016: Fergus Cullen, the chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, endorsed John Kasich.
January 22, 2016:National Review released a special edition featuring essays from 22 conservatives opposing Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy.
January 23, 2016:The Des Moines Register issued primary endorsements for Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio.
January 24, 2016: Donald Trump led the Republican field in Iowa and New Hampshire with 34 percent support and 31 percent support, respectively, according to a Fox News poll. Ted Cruz followed in second place in both states with 23 percent in Iowa and 14 percent in New Hampshire.
January 24, 2020: Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg are airing new ads focused on Donald Trump and the general election. Bernie Sanders will hold campaign events with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in Iowa.
Nina Smith is a Democratic staffer with experience in political communications. Wilson received a bachelor’s degree from Morgan State University and a master’s degree from the George Washington University’s School of Political Management.
Previous campaign work:
2010 Martin O’Malley gubernatorial campaign, political and communications coordinator
Other experience:
2016-present: Megaphone Strategies, managing partner, co-owner, and director of media relations
2016: Young Invincibles, communications director
2014-2016: U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services, press secretary
2013-2014: Office of Gov. Martin O’Malley (D-Md.), press secretary
2013: TheRoot.com, publicist
2012-2013: U.S. Small Business Administration, deputy press secretary
2011-2012: Prince George’s County Office of the County Executive, community liaison for strategic partnerships
2007-2011: Office of Gov. Martin O’Malley (D-Md.)
2009-2011: Public relations liaison
2007-2009: Senior media events coordinator
2005-2007: Maryland Democratic Party, special assistant to the chairman and youth outreach coordinator
“I feel like Pete really gets it, and really understands the challenges women face, whether it’s pay, taking special consideration for our healthcare, and then finally just our safety. These are issues that need to be taken seriously, and it’s very clear in the policy we’re introducing and putting out there that we are taking them seriously.”
“Whether it’s 10 percent, 12 percent or 15 percent, I suspect the probability our model spits out for a contested convention will strike some of you as high and others of you as low.
On the one hand, a contested convention has historically been a sucker’s bet. Pundits and reporters love to speculate about the possibility. But out of 18 competitive nomination processes since 1972, none has resulted in what’s uniformly regarded as a contested convention, although some arguably were. (I think the 1976 Republican race probably meets the definition of a nomination whose outcome was uncertain when the convention began. Even that was 44 years ago, however.)
On the other hand, a number of other nominations — including the 2008 Democratic race — have come fairly close to resulting in contested conventions. The 2016 Republican convention could also plausibly have been contested if Republicans had used Democrats’ rules. (Trump got a big boost from winner-take-all and winner-take-most states, which Democratic rules do not allow for).”
– Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight
Democrats
Michael Bennet will campaign in New Hampshire on Sunday with stops in Concord, Nashua, Chester, and Manchester.
Joe Biden released an ad focused on electability against Trump on Friday. He will campaign in Iowa over the weekend, including attending a block party co-hosted by the Des Moines NAACP.
Michael Bloomberg started airing “Pentagon,” an ad focused on Trump’s critical comments about U.S. military leaders. He opened his Minnesota state headquarters in Minneapolis on Thursday.
Pete Buttigieg will hold town halls across Iowa on Saturday with stops planned in Fort Dodge, Storm Lake, and Carroll. A town hall in Des Moines will be broadcast by Fox News on Sunday. VoteVets PAC began airing television ads to support Buttigieg in New Hampshire.
Tulsi Gabbard is holding town halls in New Hampshire over the weekend with stops in Andover, Moultonborough, and Plymouth.
Amy Klobuchar will campaign in Iowa over the weekend with stops in Bettendorf, Waterloo, Ames, and Des Moines.
Bernie Sanders will hold campaign events with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.) in Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, and Ames over the weekend. He is airing a new television ad called “Transform This Country.”
Elizabeth Warren will hold town halls across Iowa over the weekend. Her itinerary includes Burlington, Muscatine, and Davenport.
Andrew Yang continues his bus tour of Iowa with stops planned in southern and western Iowa this weekend. Former candidate Marianne Williamson will support Yang at an event in Fairfield but said she had not yet endorsed a candidate.
Republicans
NBC News profield Donald Trump’s campaign operations in Iowa, which has more state staffers in 2020 than 2016.
Bill Weld spoke with black faith leaders in San Diego on Thursday. He is attending a town hall in New Hampshire on Saturday.
Donald Trump led the Republican field in Iowa and New Hampshire with 34 percent support and 31 percent support, respectively, according to a Fox News poll. Ted Cruz followed in second place in both states with 23 percent in Iowa and 14 percent in New Hampshire.
January 23, 2020: The Democratic National Committee begins its first multi-million dollar investment in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona. Donald Trump will attend the annual, anti-abortion March for Life in Washington, D.C., on Friday.
“During the 2008 Democratic primaries, the endorsements of black lawmakers were spread out over just four candidates. Just nine Democrats were competing in the primaries at that time. And in 2016, CBC endorsements went to just two of the Democratic candidates.
Although nine candidates have received current endorsements during the 2020 primary, it’s worth noting that most endorsements have gone to Biden — the candidate leading with black voters. This should be of little surprise, given that many black lawmakers in Congress worked with Biden when he was vice president to the country’s first black president and when Biden was a lawmaker himself. …
But despite that, the most influential endorsements for candidates might not be those that come from black lawmakers, but from black mayors — leaders of cities with large black populations, said Bakari Sellers, a CNN political analyst and former state legislator who previously interned for a black lawmaker and a black mayor. This might suggest that political power and influence in black America could increasingly be shifting from Washington to the cities where black voters actually live.”
– Eugene Scott, The Washington Post
Democrats
The Democratic National Committeeannounced on Wednesday that it would begin its first multi-million dollar investment in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, calling this initial wave of spending “The Battleground Build Up 2020.”
The Boston GlobeprofiledBennet and his New Hampshire state campaign. He launched a new ad in the state contrasting himself with Trump called “Two Weeks at a Time.”
Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg endorsedJoe Biden on Wednesday. Biden said he would not testify at the impeachment trial in exchange for certain Trump administration officials to also agree to testify.
San Francisco Mayor London Breed endorsed Michael Bloomberg on Thursday. Axios profiled the campaign and data operations of Bloomberg’s staff at his New York City headquarters.
Tulsi Gabbard is continuing to campaign in New Hampshire with a town hall in Claremont on Thursday. She also filed suit against 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, alleging Clinton lied about Gabbard’s connection to Russia and caused $50 million in personal and professional damages.
Klobucharhosted a tele-town hall in Iowa on Wednesday night. She also released a new ad, “Buckle Up,” as part of a six-figure campaign in Iowa.
Deval Patrick is continuing to campaign in New Hampshire with stops in Merrimack and Berlin on Thursday.
Politico examined Tom Steyer’s campaign operations in South Carolina, where he has spent more than $1.2 million on Facebook ads and $12 million on television and radio ads.
Andrew Yang is holding a town hall in Dubuque, Iowa, on Thursday.
Republicans
Donald Trump will attend the annual, anti-abortion March for Life in Washington, D.C., on Friday. The organization’s president, Jeanne Mancini, said it will be the first time a president attends the event.
Republican: Where do Republican and conservative pundits and commentators disagree? Each week, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“Pro-Trump Republican senators contend their home-state constituents oppose impeachment — not just loyal Republicans, but CNN-watching independents as well. They describe constituents back home who see impeachment as a waste of time and a distraction from working on real issues.”
“You want the American people to see a fair and thoughtful process. This is a big-enough issue that people will pay attention in a way they don’t on other issues.”
Cheney not running for Senate, Friess a question mark in WY
Rep. Liz Cheney will not run for the open U.S. Senate seat in Wyoming. In a statement Jan. 16, she said the House is where she can have the greatest effect:
“Our nation is facing grave security challenges overseas and the House Democrats are working to weaken our president and embolden our enemies. Socialists in congress and among the presidential candidates are threatening our liberty and freedom.
I believe I can have the biggest impact for the people of Wyoming by remaining in leadership in the House of Representatives and working [to] take our Republican majority back.”
Cheney represents Wyoming’s At-Large Congressional District and is chair of the House Republican Conference, making her the third-ranking House Republican. She’s the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney.
The current four-candidate Republican primary field for this safe GOP seat includes former Rep. Cynthia Lummis. According to The Hill‘s Juliegrace Brufke, “Lummis is a favorite amongst the conservative faction of the party.”
Foster Friess, a businessman and the second-place finisher in 2018‘s Republican gubernatorial primary, announced Jan. 17 he would begin a listening tour in consideration of a Senate bid. The Casper Star Tribune‘s Nick Reynolds wrote that “Friess maintains a strong conservative coalition across the state as well as a sizable ability to self-fund a campaign.”
The filing deadline is May 29. The primary is Aug. 18. Incumbent Sen. Mike Enzi (R) is not seeking re-election.
Olson endorses Bush to succeed him in TX-22
Retiring Rep. Pete Olson endorsed Pierce Bush in the 15-candidate Republican primary for Texas’ 22nd Congressional District. The primary is March 3.
Olson said that if “Texas 22 goes blue, America goes blue,” and that “one person came across as the person who can win this district in November. That man is Pierce Bush.”
Olson won the district by 5 percentage points in 2018. The Democratic primary features 5 candidates, including Sri Preston Kulkarni, who ran against Olson in 2018.
Bush was CEO of Big Brothers Big Sisters Lone Star. He’s the grandson of George H.W. Bush and nephew of George W. Bush.
Andrew Schneider of Houston Public Media said, “The heart of the district is Fort Bend County, accounting for 70 percent of the vote. And for the last two election cycles, Fort Bend County has been trending Democratic.”
According to Houston Public Media, immigration, flood infrastructure, and transportation are major topics of discussion among Republican candidates.
Texas’ 22nd is one of 36 open House seats and one of 26 currently held by a Republican (another open seat is vacant and was last held by a Republican). Six representatives out of Texas’ 23-member Republican House delegation have announced they will not in 2020.
Republican Main St Partnership PAC backs challenger in IA-04
The Republican Main Street Partnership PAC endorsed state Sen. Randy Feenstra in the Republican primary for Iowa’s 4th Congressional District. The current six-candidate field includes incumbent Steve King.
King has been in the House since 2003 and faced his closest election in 2018, when he won by 3 percentage points.
The PAC’s website states that the “governing Republicans of Main Street have worked together to revive Congress as an effective institution after years of deadlock and extremism.” It is targeting suburban districts in 2020. Democrats picked up several suburban seats in 2018.
King was removed from committee assignments in January 2019 after The New York Times published an interview in which King mentioned white nationalism and supremacy and Western civilization. King has said his comments were taken out of context.
The primary is June 2, and the filing deadline is March 13.
CA Congressional delegation backs Obernolte for CA-08
State Assemblyman Jay Obernolte announced endorsements from the six members of California’s Republican House delegation, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and 8th District incumbent Paul Cook.
Cook’s retirement leaves the 8th District seat open in 2020.
The March 3 top-two primary has drawn 10 candidates. Among the five Republicans is Tim Donnelly, who ran against Cook in 2018 and received 40 percent of the vote. Donnelly beat Democrat Marge Doyle for the second-place spot in that year’s top-two primary by 1 percentage point.
State executives
Utah Rep. Rob Bishop signs on as Thomas Wright’s running mate
Last week, we covered U.S. Rep. Rob Bishop’s decision to endorse former state GOP Chairman Thomas Wright for governor of Utah rather than seek the office himself. On Friday, Wright announced that Bishop would be his running mate. Wright is the first of seven Republicans in the race to select a running mate.
Bishop was elected to the U.S. House in 2002 and earlier served 16 years in the state House, including two as speaker. Local media sources had identified him as a potential gubernatorial candidate after he announced that he wouldn’t seek re-election to the House this year.
Utah abolished the office of secretary of state in 1976 and delegated many of its responsibilities to the lieutenant governor. The office is responsible for overseeing notaries public, authenticating legal documents, overseeing registered lobbyists, and certifying municipal annexations. Utah is also one of two states (the other is Alaska) where the lieutenant governor serves as chief elections officer.
Incumbent Gary Herbert (R) is not running for re-election. The June 30 primary is open to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters. Utah Republicans have won every gubernatorial election since 1984, marking the longest GOP gubernatorial winning streak in the country.
Montana State Sen. Al Olszewski picks running mate
Montana state Sen. Al Olszewski announced Friday that freshman state Sen. Kenneth Bogner (R) would be his gubernatorial running mate. Olszewski is the first candidate from either party to name a running mate. Candidates for governor of Montana are required to name a running mate as part of the filing process. State Attorney General Tim Fox, U.S. Rep. Greg Gianforte, and any other candidates joining the race have until March 9 to file.
Bogner was first elected to represent his eastern Montana state Senate district in 2018.
You may recall from last week’s edition that Fox, Gianforte, and Olszewski are scheduled to appear in a debate in Billings on Thursday. It will be the first debate between all three candidates.
The June 2 primary is open to all voters. No Republican candidate has been elected governor in Montana since Judy Martz (R) in 2000.
Legislatures
OC GOP rescinds Diep endorsement
The Orange County Republican Party rescinded its endorsement of Assemblyman Tyler Diep (R-72). Chairman Fred Whitaker said, “This is a sad day when an incumbent Republican member of the legislature loses the local party endorsement, but the party felt there had to be accountability for voting patterns.”
Former Assemblyman Matthew Harper, who called for the vote, criticized Diep for being the only Republican to vote in favor of Assembly Bill 5, a bill addressing independent contractors. Harper said Diep was too supportive of public sector unions.
Diep blamed the decision on a small number of political insiders overriding the desires of his full constituency. “While it is disappointing that a few political insiders of the local party drove this, I am confident that voters will know I’m the best candidate to fight for them in Sacramento,” he said.
Former state Sen. Janet Nguyen (R) is the other Republican running in the top-two primary. Commenting on Nguyen’s campaign in December 2019, KCRW said, “Orange County used to be the bedrock of the Republican party in Southern California. But the party is facing an existential crisis.”
Early campaign finance reports show TX GOP civil war may be on hold
The first 2020 campaign finance reports in Texas were released last week. According to The Dallas Morning News, the numbers show that a fight between factions within the state Republican Party could be cooling off. In 2018, factional conflict between moderate Republicans aligned with Speaker Joe Straus and conservative Republicans aligned with the Texas Freedom Caucus played out in 46 Republican primaries across both legislative chambers.
“[Empower Texans and Texas Right to Life], which have funded primary challengers to Republican incumbents in the past, mostly stayed out of most elections this reporting period,” wrote James Barragán and Ariana Giorgi. Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University, agreed. “This cycle is different in that the Republican civil war has essentially gone away. We’re not seeing any of that,” he said.
In 2020, Republicans are defending a 19-12 majority in the state Senate and an 82-64 majority with three vacancies in the state House.
One race where the conflict may not have subsided: the race for state GOP chair. Former Florida Congressman Allen West is challenging sitting chair James Dickey. West raised $490,000 (including $250,000 from donor Richard Uihlein) over the past six months, while Dickey raised $18,000.
ND Rep. moves districts and announces he will challenge incumbents
North Dakota Rep. Jim Grueneich (R-12) announced that he and his wife Naomi were moving from their home in District 12 to District 28 to allow Naomi to pursue a career opportunity. Grueneich said he would run in District 28, where incumbents Jeffery Magrum(R) and Michael Don Brandenburg(R) have already announced re-election bids.
Each North Dakota House district elects two representatives who serve four-year terms. Grueneich and Magrum were each first elected to the House in 2016, while Brandenburg served in the House from 1997 to 2002 before winning election to the chamber again in 2004. Forty-seven of the chamber’s 94 seats are up for election this year. Republicans hold a 79-15 majority.
Power players
A weekly feature on influencers shaping the direction of the party.
“The National Republican Congressional Committee, the only national GOP organization dedicated to defending the House, effectively coordinates and defends conservative House candidates across America.” – NRCC website
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is a national 527 group and subsidiary of the Republican Party that aims to build and maintain a Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives through contributions to Republican candidates and political organizations.
In February 2019, the NRCC announced 55 Democratic-held districts that it would target in 2020. For a list of those districts, as well as margins of victory for each district in the 2018, 2016, and 2014 elections, click here.
NRCC programs include the Patriot Program, which provides funding and support to incumbent members of the U.S. House running for re-election in battleground districts, and Young Guns, which recruits and supports challengers running for U.S. House seats in battleground districts.
Democratic: Where do Democratic and progressive pundits and commentators disagree? Each week, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“Above all, progressives want to beat Trump. The Democratic front-runners have all pledged to support the eventual nominee no matter who it is. And this week, the leaders of six national progressive organizations sent out a ‘unity statement’ to this effect: ‘While we firmly believe that either Warren or Sanders should lead our nation in 2021, we will, in the end, go all-out to defeat Trump no matter who the Democratic nominee is.’
Still, progressives can’t shake the feeling that they’ve seen this movie before. Like Biden, Clinton was once widely considered to be the safest bet to beat Trump. She wasn’t as radical as Sanders, the thinking went, so she could better appeal to voters straddling the political middle. She was a known quantity, a bridge builder, a shoo-in. But then millions of American voters who once voted for Obama didn’t vote for her. To some lefties, a Biden nomination feels like déjà vu.”
“For all the hand-wringing among Democrats about which nominee would be most able to unify the party heading into November, Biden is also uniquely positioned to win over Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg supporters. When Sanders supporters are asked about their second choice in the primary, unsurprisingly Warren picks up 32 percent, but Biden follows closely at 28 percent. Similarly, Warren backers support Sanders as a second choice by 33 percent, but Biden is also strong at 24 percent — with Buttigieg trailing with 12 percent. Biden also leads among current Buttigieg and Bloomberg supporters by wide margins when asked about a second option.
Pundits and casual political observers are currently promoting the idea that Democratic primary voters are split ideologically into warring camps, but the ‘second choice’ figures paint a different picture of an electorate ready to unify behind Biden as the nominee.”
VoteVets Action Fund spending $3.3 million in Senate primary in N.C.
VoteVets Action Fund is spending $3.3 million on ads supporting Cal Cunningham in the Senate race in North Carolina through January.
An early biographical spot from VoteVets highlighted Cunningham’s experience in the Army and the state Senate, referring to him as a progressive.
Cunningham released his first TV ad as well, discussing his military service and saying he’d work to expand Medicaid in North Carolina.
Cunningham was elected to the state Senate in 2000 and served one term. An Associated Press article said Cunningham was considered a conservative Democrat at the time of his tenure.
Cunningham is one of five primary candidates, including state Sen. Erica Smith, vying for the nomination to run against Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in November. The primary is March 3.
On Oct. 31, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) endorsed Cunningham in the primary. Smith responded, “Ultimately, the voters of North Carolina will decide who their next United States Senator will be — NOT a handful of DC politicians making back room deals in windowless basements.”
Smith was first elected to the state Senate in 2014. Her endorsers in the 2020 Senate race include Flip the Senate, a group that says it supports progressive policies, and Build the Wave, a group using texting campaigns to boost Democratic turnout.
A Public Policy Polling poll conducted Jan. 10-12 found “Undecided” leading with 60 percent. Cunningham received 22 percent support to Smith’s 12 percent. Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling told Ballotpedia the poll’s margin of error was +/-4.3. A Fox News poll conducted Nov. 10-13 found 18 percent support for Smith to 13 percent for Cunningham, and 49 percent of respondents answered, “Don’t know.” The margin of error was +/- 3.5.
Three outlets rate the general election Toss-up or Leans Republican.
DSCC endorses Mackler in Senate primary in TN
The DSCC endorsed attorney James Mackler in the Democratic primary for Senate in Tennessee.
The race is open as incumbent Lamar Alexander (R) is not seeking re-election. Five Democrats and 12 Republicans are currently running in the primary elections.
Mackler has also been endorsed by Phil Bredesen, the former governor of Tennessee and Democratic candidate for Senate in 2018. Bredesen lost that election to Marsha Blackburn (R).
Melanie Tomlyn of Indivisible of Nashville and Middle Tennessee said of the DSCC’s endorsement that “this Senate race is about the Tennessee grassroots and will not be dictated by outside national organizations putting their fingers on the scale.”
Indivisible’s website says its mission is “to cultivate a grassroots movement of literally thousands of local Indivisible groups to elect progressive leaders, realize bold progressive policies, rebuild our democracy, and defeat the Trump agenda.”
The primaries are Aug. 6, and the filing deadline is April 2. Three ratings outlets call this a safe Republican seat.
Judi Reiss withdraws from PA-01 primary
Bucks County Prothonotary Judi Reiss withdrew from Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District primary Monday, citing a desire to give full attention to her elected and family roles.
That leaves three candidates in the Democratic primary: Ivyland Borough Councilmember Christina Finello, technology consultant Skylar Hurwitz, and Pennsbury School Boardmember Debbie Wachspress. The filing deadline for the April 28 primary is Feb. 18.
The 1st District, currently represented by Brian Fitzpatrick (R), is on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s target lists. It is one of three congressional districts in the country that Hillary Clinton (D) won in 2016 and that is represented by a Republican.
Pennsylvania’s district lines were redrawn ahead of the 2018 elections. Clinton carried what is now the 1st District by 2 percentage points. Fitzpatrick won in 2018 by 3 percentage points.
Roll Calldescribed Democrats’ challenges in the district as follows: “Fundraising will be critical for any Democrat running in the expensive Philadelphia media market and taking on Fitzpatrick, who had nearly $1.1 million on hand as of Sept. 30. Democrats will also have to chip away at Fitzpatrick’s moderate brand. A former FBI agent, he often touts his role in the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. According to CQ Vote Studies, Fitzpatrick has supported Trump’s priorities 64 percent of the the [sic] time, the lowest score for a Republican (the average Republican has backed Trump’s priorities 94 percent of the time).“
Bucks County Courier Timesreported that the county Democratic Party will hold an endorsement meeting the first week of February.
Liss-Riordan drops out, Kennedy gets endorsements in Senate primary in MA
Attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan dropped out, leaving the primary between incumbent Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Joe Kennedy—at least for now. The filing deadline for the Sept. 1 primary is June 2.
Several House Democrats endorsed Kennedy, including Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Mark Pocan and Rep. John Lewis.
State executives
Sen. Jon Tester endorses Montana Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney for governor
Montana Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney received the endorsement of Sen. Jon Tester (D) Friday in his bid to succeed term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock. Aside from Bullock, who endorsed Cooney in October, and Cooney himself, Tester is the only Democrat to hold a statewide elected office in Montana.
You may recall from last week’s edition that gubernatorial candidates filed campaign finance reports Jan. 6. The reports showed consultant Whitney Williams, who is running with the endorsement of EMILY’s List, leading in fourth-quarter fundraising with $439,000 to Cooney’s $200,000 and state House Minority Leader Casey Schreiner’s $15,000.
A fourth candidate, former state Rep. Reilly Neill, announced Monday that she was suspending her campaign. Candidates have until March 9 to file for Montana’s gubernatorial election. The June 2 primary is open to all voters. No Republican candidate has been elected governor in Montana since Judy Martz (R) in 2000.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts Vermont gubernatorial election towards Democrats
Last week, we looked at Vermont Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman’s decision to run for governor, setting up a primary contest with former state Secretary of Education Rebecca Holcombe. Since then, Sabato’s Crystal Ballchanged their projection for the general election from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. They cited Zuckerman’s history of running in statewide elections as a factor in their decision, saying that he was well-poised to attract voters turning out for the presidential election.
Legislatures
Personal PAC announces endorsements for two challengers in IL House
Personal PAC, a group dedicated to “making sure that Illinois always remains a state where abortion is safe, legal, and accessible to every woman,” announced endorsements across the state. They are endorsing challengers to two sitting state representatives: Yehiel Kalish (District 13) and Thaddeus Jones (District 26). As we reported last week, Kalish faces a primary challenge over his stance on an abortion law.
Primaries for all seats in the Illinois State Legislature will take place on March 17. Across the House, 15 Democratic incumbents face at least one primary challenger. In 2018, eight Democratic incumbents faced primary challengers.
Pennsylvania Rep. receives challenger from the left
Attorney Emily Kinkead (D) announced she would challenge state Rep. Adam Ravenstahl (D-20) in a Democratic primary the Pittsburgh Tribune-Reviewcharacterized as part of “a wave of progressive Democrats who in recent years have challenged establishment incumbents in Allegheny County’s Democratic Party.”
Kinkead said that she thought voters in the district were looking for a change, adding that she thinks that District 20 is more progressive than people think. Ravenstahl said he expected a challenge. “That kind of comes with the territory,” he said.
According to the Tribune-Review, Kinkead is following Reps. Summer Lee (D-34) and Sara Innamorato (D-21), who each defeated long-serving Alleghany County incumbents in 2018. Democratic primaries in Pennsylvania will take place on April 28.
Nevada Senate caucus makes endorsement in open primary
The Nevada State Senate Democratic Caucus endorsed Roberta Lange, former chair of the Nevada Democratic Party, for a seat held by term-limited Sen. David Parks (D-7). Assemblywoman Ellen Spiegel (D-20) and Assemblyman Richard Carillo (D-18) have both said they plan to run but have not filed for the race. The Nevada Independentcalled the endorsement “a significant advantage” in the Democratic primary.
Parks has represented District 7 since it was created as a result of redistricting in 2010. He won re-election against a Libertarian candidate 70-30 in 2016 and defeated a Republican challenger 64-35 in 2012. The filing deadline for this election is March 13.
Shevrin Jones receives another endorsement in FL Senate bid
Last week, state Rep. Shevrin Jones received the endorsement of retiring state Sen. Oscar Braynon (D-35) in a five-way primary. This week, he picked up an endorsement from U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D). A primary for this race will take place on August 18, and the filing deadline is June 12.
Power players
A weekly feature on influencers shaping the direction of the party.
“[The DCCC is] the only political committee in the country whose principal mission is to support Democratic House candidates every step of the way to fortify and expand our new Democratic Majority.” – DCCC website
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is an official subsidiary of the national Democratic Party. As a national political committee, the group makes political contributions to support the election of Democratic candidates to the U.S. House.
In January 2019, the DCCC released an initial list of 33 Republican-held or open seats it would target in 2020. Twelve districts have been added since, six in August 2019 and six in January 2020. For a list of those districts, as well as margins of victory for each district in the 2018, 2016, and 2014 elections, click here.
DCCC programs include the Frontline Program, a partnership between the DCCC and members of Congress designed to protect vulnerable Democratic incumbents, and the Red to Blue program, which provides funding and guidance to candidates seeking election in districts represented by Republicans.
January 16, 2020: The U.S. House delivered two articles of impeachment against Donald Trump to the U.S. Senate on Wednesday. The Iowa Democratic Party will release three sets of election results following the Feb. 3 caucuses.
“To better understand which candidates did well or poorly Tuesday night, we plotted how favorably respondents rated the candidates before the debate vs. how debate-watchers rated candidates’ performances afterward — and Elizabeth Warren, in particular, seemed to have a breakout evening according to this metric. She not only received the highest marks for her debate performance, but her scores were high even relative to her pre-debate favorability rating.
That said, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden also received medium-to-high marks for their performances, but because of their relatively high pre-debate favorability ratings, we expected a lot of voters to already be predisposed to viewing their debate performances in a positive light. So while they still did pretty well on the debate stage, they didn’t exceed expectations the way Warren did. Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer, on the other hand, tied for the lowest overall debate grades, putting them only barely above where we’d expect them to be given their pre-debate favorability ratings.”
– Aaron Bycoffe, Sarah Frostenson, and Julia Wolfe, FiveThirtyEight
The Iowa Democratic Party will release three election results following the Feb. 3 caucuses: the number of delegates each candidate received, the first vote of caucusgoers, and the final vote that features only viable candidates who crossed the 15 percent threshold after caucusgoers realigned their votes in the caucus process. In the past, only the delegate totals were made public.
Joe Biden launched a new outreach program on historically black college campuses. In an interview on Wednesday with NBC 5 and Dallas Morning News, Biden discussed flipping Texas.
Michael Bloomberg will hold Climate Week events in California on Friday. On Wednesday, Bloomberg launched his “Women for Mike” outreach program and appeared on The View.
