Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
A look at the number of school board candidates running for each seat in 16 states
We’ve got June 14 election results!
June 28 election preview—Democratic primary for Illinois’ 6th Congressional District
17% more school board candidates per seat in 2022
Today, we’re bringing you an excerpt from a story in Hall Pass, our weekly education-related newsletter. One of the statistics we track in Hall Pass is the number of school board candidates running per seat up for election.
This year, an average of 2.3 candidates are running for each seat in the 968 school board races in 16 states for which we have complete data—17% more than in 2020.
The five states with the highest candidate-to-seat ratios are Alabama, Alaska, Nebraska, Nevada, and Tennessee.
The five states with the lowest candidate-to-seat ratios are California, Georgia, Maryland, New York, and Texas.
(Note that this analysis includes the 200 largest districts by student enrollment and any districts that overlap the 100 largest cities in the country. The average candidates-per-seat number will change as more filing deadlines pass.)
For more on this story, including a look at how the candidate-per-seat ratios compare to 2020 and 2018, click the link below.
There were statewide primaries in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina on Tuesday. Our team stayed up late into the night collecting results and monitoring the most significant developments. In tomorrow’s Brew, we’ll take a closer look at the biggest storylines to emerge from Tuesday’s results and how they may affect the November elections.
In the meantime, check out our June 14 election hub to see the latest results. You can also subscribe to The Heart of the Primaries, our weekly dive into key congressional, legislative, and executive races. The next edition comes out Thursday!
Click on the links below to see results from the battleground elections that happened last night:
June 28 election preview—Democratic primary for Illinois’ 6th Congressional District
Now that June 14 primaries are behind, let’s cast our gaze on some upcoming primaries and turn to Illinois. Sean Casten, Marie Newman, and Charles Hughes are running in the Democratic primary for Illinois’ 6th Congressional District on June 28, 2022. Casten and Newman, both members of the U.S. House running for re-election in the same district due to redistricting, have led in fundraising and media attention.
Newman represents Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District. Casten represents the current 6th District. According to political researcher Frank Calabrese, 41% of the constituents in the new district come from Newman’s district and 23% come from Casten’s. Two election forecasters rate the general election as Likely Democratic, while one rates it as Lean Democratic.
Both Casten and Newman have cited climate change as a top issue. Casten has introduced several climate-related bills while in Congress, including the End Oil and Gas Tax Subsidies Act. Newman sponsored the America’s Clean Future Fund Act, a measure to impose a carbon fee on the use of certain fuels and use the proceeds to fund clean energy initiatives.
The League of Conservation Voters and Clean Energy for America endorsed Casten. The Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition endorsed both Casten and Newman.
Both candidates have also campaigned on abortion. Newman has spoken about her experience getting an abortion when she was 19 years old, saying, “It was not a shameful act. No woman should feel guilty for making a decision over her body, no matter the circumstances.” Newman has criticized Casten for voting for George H.W. Bush and Bob Dole, Republicans she described as anti-choice, but Casten has said his voting record is 100% pro-choice. Casten said, “Women have a fundamental right to make their own decisions, especially when it comes to abortion.”
Planned Parenthood and the National Abortion Rights Action League (NARAL) have endorsed both Casten and Newman.
As of May 2022, six U.S. House races had two incumbents running for the same congressional district in the 2022 elections.
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
Number of contested state legislative primaries is up 32% compared to 2020
South Dakota voters defeated Amendment C on June 7
A look at the June 14 primary elections
Number of contested state legislative primaries is up 32% compared to 2020
Here’s this week’s update from the world of contested legislative primaries. We’ve provided regular updates about the elevated number of state legislative primaries throughout the election cycle. This week, we added Illinois and Oklahoma, bringing the total to 26 states accounting for 3,254 (53%) of the 6,166 state legislative seats up for election this year.
There are 32% more contested state legislative primaries this year than in 2020, including 64% more Republican primaries and 18% more top-two/four primaries. Democratic primaries are down 10%.
A primary is contested when more candidates are running than available nominations, meaning at least one candidate must lose.
Overall, seven states in this analysis have Democratic trifectas, 16 have Republican trifectas, and three have divided governments.
Of the 26 states in this analysis, 24 are holding partisan primaries. Two states—California and Nebraska—use top-two primaries.
The number of Democratic primaries has increased in nine states, decreased in 12, and remains the same in two. The number of Republican primaries has increased in 22 states, decreased in one, and is unchanged in one. The table below shows partisan statistics for the three states with the largest increases and decreases so far.
Use the link below to view these topline figures and additional state-specific statistics.
Four states—Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina—are holding primary elections today, June 14. Here are some highlights. You can click on the states’ names to view other races on their ballots.
At the state legislative level, there are 32 contested primaries, three of which include incumbents. This is down from 34 contested primaries in 2020. Seventy-one incumbents are not seeking re-election, meaning more than one-third of the state legislature will be new next year.
Eight candidates are running in the state’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, including retired Army captain Sam Brown and former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt. NBC’s Natasha Korecki and Adam Edelman wrote, “There are signs that grassroots support is propelling [Brown] … though [Laxalt],” who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump (R), “maintains a solid lead in public polls.” Incumbent U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D), first elected in 2016, faces three primary challengers.
While six state executive offices are up for election, there is only one contested primary. Two Republicans are running in the open secretary of state race. Incumbent Al Jaeger (R), first elected in 1992 and the second-longest serving secretary of state in the country, is not seeking re-election.
All seven U.S. House incumbents—one Democrat and six Republicans—are seeking re-election. Four face contested primaries, including two of which we are watching closely:
In the 1st District, Rep. Nancy Mace (R) faces Kate Arrington (R). Mace was first elected in 2020 after defeating Rep. Joe Cunningham (D). Cunningham defeated Arrington in 2018 to win the district for Democrats after Arrington defeated then-incumbent Mark Sanford (R) in the district’s primary that year. Mace voted to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election.
In the 7th District, Rep. Tom Rice (R) faces six challengers including state Rep. Russell Fry (R). Rice is one of 10 Republicans in the U.S. House who voted to impeach Trump in 2021.
Trump endorsed Arrington and Fry in their respective primaries.
If you have primaries coming up, use Ballotpedia’s Sample Ballot Lookup to see what’s on your ballot and bring your choices to the polls with our My Vote app!
South Dakota voters defeated Amendment C on June 7
Now that you are caught up on what is happening today, let’s take a quick trip back in time to last week’s election events.
On June 7, South Dakota voters defeated Constitutional Amendment C 67% to 33%. While this was the only statewide ballot measure on the June ballot, if passed, it could have affected a separate measure—Amendment D—which will appear on the November ballot.
The state legislature put Amendment C on the June ballot. It would have changed the percentage of votes needed to approve ballot measures that would increase taxes or fees, or require the state to appropriate $10 million or more in the first five fiscal years to a three-fifths (60%) supermajority vote rather than a simple majority, the current standard. Three states—Florida, Utah, and Washington—require supermajority votes to enact certain constitutional amendments.
Amendment D, a citizen-initiated measure on the November ballot, would expand Medicaid in South Dakota. Had voters approved Amendment C, Amendment D would have needed 60% of the vote to pass due to its cost. In a fiscal note, the state legislative research council said Amendment D would require the state to appropriate $166 million over the first five years.
Zach Nistler, a representative for South Dakotans for Fair Elections, a group opposing Amendment C, told KELOLAND Newsthat South Dakota voters opposed Amendment C to keep majority rule for ballot measures. “South Dakotans are listening and engaged and we trust South Dakotans to make important decisions for our state,” Nistler said, “[t]hat is why over 60% of South Dakotans showed up to oppose Amendment C and protect our majority rule.”
State Rep. Jon Hansen (R), a sponsor of Amendment C, told the Argus Leaderthat the measure failed due to the influence of groups from outside of South Dakota. “Unfortunately, Amendment C came up short today because liberal groups who want to tax and spend our money on their own special interest programs poured a million and a half dollars … into false and misleading advertising,” Hansen said.
Through May 18, South Dakotans for Fair Elections raised $1.2 million. Its largest donors were the National Education Association ($455,960), The Fairness Project ($367,696), Avera Health ($250,000), and Sanford Health ($250,000), the latter two being the largest hospital systems in the state.
South Dakotans Against Higher Taxes, which supported Amendment C, raised $905,988, including $836,488 from Americans for Prosperity and $50,000 from the Opportunity Solutions Project.
Since 1985, voters in South Dakota have approved 26 legislatively-referred constitutional amendments and rejected 27.
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
A look at 2022’s decade-high rate of congressional retirements
A look at South Carolina’s June 14 primaries
SCOTUS to issue opinions this week
A look at 2022’s decade-high rate of congressional retirements
Fifty-five members of Congress are not running for re-election this year, including six of the 34 senators whose seats are up and 49 of the 435 representatives. With four states’ filing deadlines yet to pass (Florida, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Louisiana), this number could increase as the cycle continues.
Here are five things you need to know about congressional retirements in 2022:
The 55 retiring members include 32 Democrats and 23 Republicans, accounting for 11.9% of the Democratic caucus and 8.8% of the Republican caucus.
The 11.9% retirement rate among Democrats is the largest since 2014 when 8.5% of Democrats did not run for re-election.
The 8.8% retirement rate among Republicans is the second-lowest since 2014. The only year with a lower retirement rate was 2016 when 8.6% of Republicans retired.
Democrats had their lowest retirement rates out of the past five cycles in 2018 and 2020, when 7.4% and 3.4%, respectively, of the caucus did not seek re-election.
Republicans had their highest retirement rates out of the past five cycles in those years, with 12.6% of the caucus retiring in 2018 and 11.5% in 2020.
South Carolina is one of four states holding primaries tomorrow, June 14. Let’s take a look at what’s on the ballot this year.
U.S. Congress
South Carolina voters will elect a member to one of the state’s two U.S. Senate seats and all seven of its U.S. House seats. U.S. Sen. Tim Scott (R), who was appointed to the chamber in 2013 and won a full term in 2016, is running for a second full term. The Republican primary for the seat was canceled because Scott was the only candidate to file.
These are the first U.S. House elections taking place in South Carolina under new district lines adopted following the 2020 census. Republicans currently hold six of the state’s House seats to Democrats’ one. This year, 28 candidates are running for the seven seats, including 19 Republicans and nine Democrats. The 4.0 candidates per district this year is up from 2.9 per district in 2020 but down from 6.1 per district in 2018.
Ballotpedia identified two of South Carolina’s U.S. House primaries as battlegrounds: the Republican primaries in the 1st and 7th congressional districts. In the 1st district, first-term incumbent Nancy Mace (R) faces challenger Katie Arrington (R), the 2018 nominee. Mace’s endorsers include Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R), while Arrington’s include former President Donald Trump (R). A third candidate, Lynz Piper-Loomis (R), unofficially withdrew and endorsed Arrington but will still appear on the ballot. In the 7th district, incumbent Tom Rice (R) faces six challengers including Trump-endorsed state Rep. Russell Fry (R). Fry and Rice disagree on Rice’s vote in favor of impeaching President Trump in 2021.
This year, there are two contested Democratic primaries for U.S. House in South Carolina, the fewest since 2016. The four contested Republican primaries is the most since at least 2012.
State executives
There are eight statewide executive offices on the ballot in South Carolina this year. All but the race for superintendent of education feature a Republican incumbent running for re-election. Incumbent Comptroller Richard Eckstrom (R) is guaranteed re-election because no other candidates filed, while Treasurer Curtis Loftis (R) is all but guaranteed to be re-elected because no Democrats or other Republicans filed.
State legislators
All 124 seats in the South Carolina House of Representatives are up for election this year. Elections for the South Carolina State Senate take place in presidential election years. This year, 243 candidates filed for the 124 seats, more than in either of the last two midterm election years. These will be the first state legislative elections conducted under new district lines following the 2020 census.
Thirteen incumbents (11 Republicans and two Democrats) did not file to run for re-election this year, leaving their seats open. There are also two districts where a pair of Democratic incumbents are running against one another, meaning there are 15 seats open this year, more than in 2018 or 2014.
Of the 111 incumbents who are seeking re-election, 34 face contested primaries (23 Republicans and 11 Democrats), down from 35 incumbents in 2018 but up from 20 in 2014.
Candidates for office in South Carolina must win at least 50% plus one of the vote to win the nomination outright in a primary. If no candidate reaches that threshold, the top two finishers advance to a June 28 runoff.
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) is scheduled to issue opinions today (Monday) and Wednesday this week. The court does not give the public prior notice of the case names or the number of decisions it will issue on a particular day. June is historically the month when SCOTUS releases the majority of its decisions.
The court accepted 66 cases for argument during its current term. It heard 61 cases after four were dismissed and one was removed from the argument calendar. To date, SCOTUS has issued opinions in 35 cases, three of which were decided without argument. This means the court has 29 opinions to release before its summer recess in late June or early July.
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
How public schools are funded
North Dakota’s upcoming primary elections
#FridayTrivia: How many states will decide ballot measures on indentured servitude this year?
How public schools are funded
If you’re a regular Brew reader, you know we love local elections. But did you know we also publish a weekly newsletter focused exclusively on school board politics and education policy?
It’s called Hall Pass, and in each issue, we bring you school board election results, the sharpest education-related commentary, and research from across the political spectrum.
I’m a subscriber myself, and I wanted to give you a quick update about a recent feature – how public schools are funded.
According to the U.S. Department of Education, state governments provided about half of all school funding in the 2018-19 school year. But how states allocate funding to schools varies. A recent report by the Education Commission of the States (ECS), a nonpartisan organization covering education policy, divided how states allocate funding into three categories:
Student-based foundation: the state provides school districts with a base amount of funding per student, typically defined in state law.
Resource-based allocation: the state provides funding based on the costs of purchasing educational materials and hiring staff for a given number of students.
Guaranteed tax base: the state uses a formula to help equalize funding between districts with low and high property tax revenue.
According to the ECS, 33 states and the District of Columbia use a student-based foundation model to allocate funds. Ten states use a resource-based model, five use a hybrid approach, and two states—Vermont and Wisconsin—use a guaranteed tax base approach.
On top of the primary funding models, states also use a variety of mechanisms for allocating additional funding to categories of students or schools, such as special education students or geographically isolated schools.
Click here to read more about public school funding, and click below to subscribe to Hall Pass to keep up to date on the issues driving school board politics!
Voters in four states—Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina—will participate in the next round of primary elections on June 14. Throughout this week, we’ve brought you breakdowns from Maine and Nevada. Next up: North Dakota, the races on the ballot, and how their primaries work.
Voters won’t need to make any decisions in the state’s lone U.S. House race yet. U.S. Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R) was the only Republican to file. And only one challenger—Mark Haugen—filed on the Democratic side. This is the first time since 2016 that North Dakota hasn’t had any contested primaries for U.S. House.
There are six state executive offices up for election this year, including attorney general and agriculture commissioner. Republican incumbents are running for re-election in every race except for secretary of state, where incumbent Al Jaeger (R), one of the longest-serving secretaries of state in U.S. history, is retiring.
Jaeger, first elected in 1992, has the second-longest tenure of any current secretary of state behind only Wisconsin’s Doug LaFollette (D), who has been in office since 1983. There is a contested Republican primary in this race.
At the state legislative level, North Dakota will hold its most contested primaries since 2014. Typically, between 4 and 7% of primaries are contested in the state. This year, 18% of primaries are contested. There are three contested Democratic primaries after three cycles of the party holding none. For Republicans, the number of contested primaries increased 250% from six in 2020 to 21 this year.
North Dakota is using partisan primaries in all of its races, meaning candidates from the same party will compete against one another to win their party’s nomination in contested primaries.
In North Dakota, candidates can advance from a primary with a plurality, rather than a majority, of the vote. The state does not hold runoff elections. This means the candidate or candidates with the most votes—even if less than 50% of the total votes cast—advances to the general election.
If you have primaries coming up, use Ballotpedia’s Sample Ballot Lookup to see what’s on your ballot and bring your choices to the polls with our My Vote app!
#FridayTrivia: How many states will decide ballot measures on indentured servitude this year?
In the Tuesday Brew, we told you about a legislatively-referred constitutional amendment that will appear on Louisiana’s general election ballot that would remove language from the state constitution allowing involuntary servitude as a punishment for a crime. We also explained how Louisiana is not alone in placing this type of measure on its ballot in 2022.
Including Louisiana, how many states will decide ballot measures on indentured servitude this year?
Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Republican Edition
June 9, 2022
In this issue:Takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries and Paul Ryan counters Donald Trump in S.C.
Primary results roundup
California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota held primaries on Tuesday.
The big stories of the night: Mississippi incumbents may head to runoffs, Nunn wins IA-03
Two U.S. House incumbents in Mississippi could be headed for runoffs as neither cleared 50% of the vote in their primaries as of Wednesday morning.
Mississippi’s 3rd: Rep. Michael Guest had 47% of the vote to Michael Cassidy’s 48%. Guest first took office in 2019.
Mississippi’s 4th: Rep. Steven Palazzo had 32% to Mike Ezell’s 25% and Clay Wagner’s 22%. Palazzo was first elected in 2010. The Associated Presswrote, “A 2021 report by the office of Congressional Ethics found ‘substantial reason to believe’ Palazzo had abused his office by misspending campaign funds, doing favors for his brother, and enlisting staff for political and personal errands. Palazzo declined to fully participate in the investigation, but his spokeswoman at the time, Colleen Kennedy, said the it was based on ‘false allegations’ made by an opponent in a previous primary.”
Runoffs in Mississippi are June 28.
Iowa’s 3rd: Zach Nunn defeated Nicole Hasso and Gary Leffler. As of Wednesday morning, Nunn had 66% of the vote to Hasso’s 19% and Leffler’s 15%. Nunn is a state senator and Air Force veteran.
After the primary, The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ballchangedtheir general election ratings from Toss-up to Lean Republican.
Democratic incumbent Cindy Axne was first elected in 2018, defeating incumbent David Young (R) 49%-47%. In a 2020 rematch, Axne defeated Young 49% to 48%.
Other marquee primary results
California’s 27th: Incumbent Mike Garcia (R) and Christy Smith (D) advanced from a seven-candidate, top-two primary. Garcia had 50% of the vote and Smith had 35% as of Wednesday morning.
In 2020, Garcia defeated Smith in the general election by 333 votes, making it the third-closest U.S. House race that year. Brianna Lee of LAist said the 2022 race should be more competitive because redistricting “jettisoned the district’s most conservative outpost in Simi Valley, giving Democratic voters even more of an edge.” Election forecasters consider the race a Toss-up.
California’s 40th: We wrote last week that Rep. Young Kim (R) was spending big on ads opposing Greg Raths (R). As of Wednesday morning, Democrat Asif Mahmood had 40%, Kim had 34%, and Raths had 25%. Forecasters call the district Lean or Likely Republican.
California Attorney General: Incumbent Rob Bonta (D) is likely to advance from the top-two primary. Who will join him in the general election is TBD. Bonta had 55% of the vote as of Wednesday morning.Republican Nathan Hochman and Eric Early had 19% and 17%, respectively, and independent Anne Marie Schubert had 8%.
State legislative incumbents defeated
The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.
At least 13 state legislators—two Democrats and 11 Republicans—lost in primaries on June 7. Including those results, 91 state legislative incumbents have lost primaries this year. This number will likely increase: 58 primaries featuring 59 incumbents remain uncalled.
Across the 17 states that have held state legislative primaries, 5.3% of incumbents running for re-election have lost.
Ninety-one primary defeats and a 5.3% loss rate are the largest number and highest incumbent loss rate in these 17 states since 2014.
Of the 17 states that have held primaries so far, three had Democratic trifectas, 11 had Republican trifectas, and three had divided governments with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republicans controlling both legislative chambers. Across these 17 states, there are 2,189 seats up for election, 36% of the nationwide total this year.
Media analysis
The Washington Post‘s Aaron Blake discussed two U.S. House primary results in the context of Jan. 6 commission votes and the difficulty of determining how those votes have factored in GOP primaries so far:
Later this week, the House Jan. 6 committee will begin holding public hearings on the Capitol insurrection. And on Tuesday, lawmakers’ previous votes on a 9/11-style bipartisan Jan. 6 commission suddenly became a flash point.
Rep. Michael Guest (R-Miss.), who was one of 35 House Republicans to vote for the commission, found himself unexpectedly fighting for his political life. He trailed Michael Cassidy with 88 percent of the vote in, in a result few saw coming. Either candidate would need 50 percent plus one to avoid a runoff.
Another House Republican who voted for the commission was Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.). He wound up surviving his primary against state Rep. Taffy Howard but was taking only about 59 percent of the vote — less than other statewide South Dakota GOP officials facing primaries. Howard has attacked Johnson for being too bipartisan, including by declining to sign on to then-President Donald Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election.
As the Johnson example shows, it’s difficult to say how much of these dynamics stemmed from that particular vote. Unlike votes to impeach Trump, votes for the Jan. 6 commission (which failed in the Senate before the House launched a less bipartisan select committee) have yet to register as a major issue. But that’s in part because there is overlap between that issue and others in which members crossed partisan lines (such as the impeachment votes).
Another of the commission’s supporters in the House GOP, Rep. David B. McKinley (R-W.Va.), lost his primary last month. But that was against a fellow incumbent, Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) who also targeted McKinley for the latter’s vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill.
Iowa Starting Line‘s Amie Rivers wrote that challengers Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) supported against state House incumbents performed well on Tuesday:
“[A]fter her much-touted school voucher bill failed to gain traction in the Iowa Legislature this year, Gov. Kim Reynolds took her ire out at several fellow Republicans in the Iowa House who called out the bill as not being supportive of public schools and ensured it wouldn’t pass.
With the unofficial election results coming in tonight, it looks like Reynolds got her way in many of the Republican primary contests.
Her bill, Senate File 2369, would have diverted $55 million from public school budgets for up to 10,000 scholarships to pay for students to attend private schools. Legislators, particularly in rural areas with no private schools, were hesitant on the bill, including up to 15 Republicans by some reports.
…
Reynolds publicly began endorsing primary challengers to some of those legislators up for election this year, while out-of-state organizations that support vouchers have been pumping five-figure donations into their campaign coffers.
It’s unprecedented, Iowa political watchers say.
…
Republicans who did not support Reynolds’ bill also received some funding from the Iowa State Educational Association, which is against the bill. But they received far less than their primary opponents …
Paul Ryan and Donald Trump clash over SC-07 primary
Former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) endorsed Rep. Tom Rice in South Carolina’s 7th Congressional District.This is Ryan’s first 2022 endorsement.
Rice was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump in 2021, after which the state GOP censured Rice. He faces six primary challengers, including state Rep. Russell Fry, who Trump endorsed. Fry calls Rice a Republican in name only (RINO).
Rice says his impeachment vote defended the constitution. Myrtle Beach Sun News‘ Dale Shoemaker wrote, “Rice has argued that Republicans ought to stick with Trump’s policy ideas but abandon the man himself. He’s argued that he voted for Trump’s policy priorities 94% of the time and was a key player in shaping the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, along with Ryan.”
Ryan said, “There were a lot of people who wanted to vote like Tom but who just didn’t have the guts to do it. … This is just such a crystal clear case where you have a hard working, effective, senior member of Congress who deserves reelection vs. people who are just trying to be celebrities who may be trying to help Trump with his vengeance.”
Following Ryan’s endorsement, Trump said, “Did anyone notice that Fox News went lame (bad!) when weak RINO Paul Ryan, who is despised in the Great State of Wisconsin for being ‘a pathetic loser,’ went on the Fox Board.” Ryan joined the Fox Corp. board in 2019.
Ryan, Mitt Romney’s vice presidential running mate in 2012, served in the House from 1998 to 2019 and as speaker from 2015 until his retirement. Ryan was critical of Trump throughout the 2016 presidential election.
In a 2019 interview, Ryan said about Trump’s win, “I felt a major onset of responsibility to help the institutions survive. … So, from the next day on, my mantra was: ‘Only one person can be speaker of the House. … Our job from now on is to build up the country’s antibodies … to have the guardrails up, to drive the car down the middle of the road, and don’t let the car go off into the ditch.'”
Last week, Ryan said the GOP is undergoing growing pains and that “if you become a majority party you have to be a big tent party that can accommodate all different kinds of conservatives.”
The first-ever top-four congressional primary is on Saturday
Alaska will conduct the first top-four congressional primary in U.S. history on June 11—a special U.S. House primary election held in the wake of former Rep. Don Young’s (R) death.
The special general election will be on Aug. 16, the same day as the regular primary election. The special election winner will serve until Jan. 2023, when the regular election winner—if someone different—will take office for a full two-year term.
Forty-eight candidates are on the special election ballot. The regular primary features 31 candidates, including 24 who are also running in the special election. All primary candidates for each election run on the same ballot with their affiliation listed next to their names. On the special primary ballot are:
22 candidates running as nonpartisan or undeclared
As we wrote last month, an Alaska Survey Research poll found former governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin (R), Nick Begich III (R), and 2020 U.S. Senate candidate Al Gross (I) in the top three spots. A cluster of independents, Democrats, and Republicans were tied within the margin of error for fourth.
The New York Times‘ Emily Cochrane wrote, “Most observers here believe that Mr. Young’s seat is likely to remain in Republican hands given the state’s conservative slant, but the new ranked-choice system, which tends to advantage candidates in the center, could upend the conventional wisdom.”
Young was first elected Alaska’s U.S. representative in 1973, when he defeated Emil Notti (D) in a special election. Notti is running in the 2022 special primary election. Young also ran for the House in 1972, when Nick Begich Sr. (D) defeated him. Begich Sr. is Begich III’s grandfather.
Alaska voters approved the top-four primary/ranked-choice voting general election system via ballot measure in 2020. Maine is the only other state that uses ranked-choice voting for federal and state-level elections, though several other states have jurisdictions that use the voting system. Learn more here.
Gun policy an issue in IL-15 incumbent matchup
On June 7, U.S. Rep. Mary Miller began airing an ad criticizing U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis over a bill he cosponsored in 2019. Miller and Davis are running in Illinois’ 15th Congressional District, one of six incumbent-vs.-incumbent primaries taking place this year due to redistricting.
The ad says, “Rodney Davis sided with Joe Biden, voting for red flag gun confiscation that allows the government to seize your guns. … That’s why President Trump endorsed Mary Miller for Congress. Mary is ‘A’ rated by the NRA, unlike Rodney Davis.”
The NRA gave Miller an “A” rating and Davis an “A-” this year. The group has not endorsed in the primary.
The bill in question did not advance. The bill summary said it would have “authorize[d] grants for states to implement extreme risk protection order laws (also known as red flag laws). An extreme risk protection order law permits a state court to issue an order that prohibits an individual from purchasing, possessing, or receiving a firearm.” The bill text said that a court could issue such an order “upon finding by a preponderance of evidence that the respondent poses an imminent, particularized, and substantial risk of unlawfully using a firearm to cause death or serious physical injury to himself or herself or to another person.”
Davis’ campaign responded to the ad, in part: “Rodney is a proud gun owner, Concealed Carry License holder, NRA member, and strong supporter of the Second Amendment. He has fought Democrat gun control attempts in the past and will oppose their gun control legislation this week. Rodney has been endorsed by the NRA in every previous election. … Rodney was shot at by a crazed liberal gunman in 2017. He more than anyone in this race knows how important the Second Amendment is.” Davis was at the 2017 congressional baseball practice in Alexandria, Virginia, where a gunman shot five people.
In related news, Rep. Chris Jacobs (R-N.Y.) announced his retirement last week after voicing support for stronger gun regulations.
On May 27, Jacobs said, “If an assault weapons ban bill came to the floor that would ban something like an AR-15, I would vote for it.” According to TheBuffalo News, Jacobs “also said he would back raising the age on some gun purchases to 21, limiting the capacity of magazines and banning the sale of military-style body armor to civilians.” Jacobs currently represents New York’s 27th Congressional District, which includes the Buffalo suburbs. Jacobs knew one of the victims of the recent mass shooting at Tops supermarket.
Jacobs ended his re-election campaign on June 3, saying Republican officeholders and party officials withdrew their support after his statements. Jacobs said, “We have a problem in our country in terms of both our major parties. If you stray from a party position, you are annihilated. … For the Republicans, it became pretty apparent to me over the last week that that issue is gun control. Any gun control.”
Percentage of each congressional caucus not seeking re-election
Fifty-five members of Congress are not running for re-election this year, including 32 Democrats and 23 Republicans. For Democrats, this is the largest percentage of the party’s House and Senate caucuses to retire in one cycle—11.9%—since 2014. For Republicans, this represents 8.8% of the party’s caucuses.
The highest recent percentage of Republicans retiring was in 2018, when 12.6% of the party’s caucus—37 members—didn’t run for re-election. That year, Republicans gained two Senate seats and lost 35 House districts.
The lowest recent percentage of Democrats retiring was in 2020, when 10 members—3.6% of the caucus—didn’t run. Democrats gained three Senate seats and lost 10 House districts.
The lowest recent percentage of Republican congressional retirements was in 2016. Twenty-six Republicans retired—8.6% of the caucus. Republicans lost two Senate seats and five House districts.
Competitiveness data: Maine and North Dakota
Maine and North Dakota hold primaries on June 14. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.
Maine
North Dakota
Notes on how these figures were calculated:
Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.
Garcia, Smith advance to November general election: Incumbent Mike Garcia (R) and Christy Smith (D) were the top two finishers in the primary election for California’s 27th Congressional District. In 2020, Garcia defeated Smith in the general election by 333 votes, making it the third-closest U.S. House race that year. Three independent election forecasters rated the general election as Toss-up.
Municipal
Caruso and Bass advance to November general election: U.S. Rep. Karen Bass and Rick Caruso were the top two vote-getters in the nonpartisan primary for Mayor of Los Angeles. Caruso received 41.2% of the vote to Bass’ 37.8%. Public safety and homelessness were central issues in the race. Bass has represented California’s 37th Congressional District as a Democrat since 2013. Caruso, a businessman, is a registered Democrat. He was previously registered as a Republican.
San Francisco recalls District Attorney Chesa Boudin: San Francisco voters recalled District Attorney Chesa Boudin, with unofficial results showing 61.3% voting “Yes.” The issue of crime was a focal point in this election. Supporters alleged Boudin did not do enough to make residents feel safe. Boudin said his goal had been reforming the criminal justice system and that the recall was politically motivated. Once the recall results are certified, Mayor London Breed will appoint an interim district attorney to serve until an election can be held in November. The winner of that election will serve out the rest of Boudin’s term, which ends in 2024. The recall was the second one to take place against a San Francisco elected official in 2022. In February, a majority of voters cast ballots in favor of recalling three members of the San Francisco Unified School District Board of Education.
State legislative
Here’s an update on state legislative incumbents.
So far this year, 91 state legislative incumbents have lost to challengers across the 17 states that have held primaries this year—the largest number and highest incumbent loss rate in these 17 states since 2014. Of those 91 incumbents, 17 are Democrats and 74 are Republicans.
In addition to earlier primaries, these totals include preliminary results from primaries held in California, Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota, on June 7. So far, 13 incumbents have lost in those states:
Six Republicans in Iowa;
One Democrat in Montana;
One Democrat and one Republican in New Mexico; and,
Four Republicans in South Dakota.
In Iowa, the six Republican incumbents who lost were all members of the House of Representatives. Three of the races featured more than one incumbent. According to The Iowa Torch’s Shane Vander Hart, “School choice was an issue in several races.” Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) endorsed challengers to incumbent Republicans who opposed her proposal to send low-income public school students to private schools through taxpayer-funded scholarships. Dustin Hite (R), who chairs the House Education Committee and who opposed Reynolds’ proposal, ran against a Reynolds-endorsed candidate and was one of the six incumbents who lost.
No incumbents have lost in California’s primaries so far. Since the state began using a top-two primary system in 2012, only two state legislative incumbents have lost in primaries, both Republicans, in 2020.
Republican incumbents have lost at a higher rate than Democrats, but fewer Democratic incumbents are facing primary challengers.
Click here to read more about incumbents defeated in 2022 elections, and click below to see June 7 election results.
On June 14, four states will hold primaries—Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina. We looked at Maine’s primaries in yesterday’s edition of this newsletter. Let’s explore Nevada today.
The race for the U.S. Senate is expected to be competitive, with three independent race rating outlets calling the general election Toss-up. The two preceding elections were both decided by 5 percentage points or fewer. Four candidates are running in the Democratic primary, including incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto, who was first elected in 2016. Eight candidates are running in the Republican primary. Sam Brown and Adam Laxalt are the two candidates who’ve led in polls and in fundraising.
Nevada’s U.S. House delegation currently comprises three Democrats and one Republican. General elections for the 1st, 3rd, and 4th Districts are expected to be competitive—race ratings outlets consider all three to be either Toss-up or Lean Democratic. Thirty-eight candidates filed to run in the four districts, including 21 Republicans, 12 Democrats, and five independent or third party candidates.
Democrats control the state Senate 11-9 (with one vacancy) and the state Assembly 25-16 (with one vacancy). Overall, there are more contested primaries scheduled than at any point since 2014. Of the 106 possible primaries, more than one candidate filed to run in 48 (45%). Contested Republican primaries, in particular, more than doubled this year compared to 2020 from 15 to 31.
In Nevada, the primary candidate with the most votes wins—even if that candidate receives less than 50% of the total vote. Nevada is one of 40 states without primary election runoffs. The state cancels uncontested primaries and does not permit write-in candidates.
According to the latest vacancy data from the U.S. Courts, there were 41 total announced upcoming vacancies for Article III judgeships.
These positions are not yet vacant but will be at some point in the future with every judge having announced his or her intent to either leave the bench or assume senior status. The president and Senate do not need to wait for a position to become vacant before they can start the confirmation process for a successor. There are 11 nominees pending for upcoming vacancies.
Twenty-four vacancy effective dates have not been determined because the judge has not announced the date he or she will leave the bench.
In addition to these 41 upcoming vacancies, there are 75 current Article III vacancies in the federal judiciary out of the 870 total Article III judgeships.
President Biden has nominated 96 individuals to federal judgeships on Article III courts. Sixty-six of those nominees have been confirmed. Keep reading
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
Checking in on ballot measure certifications
We’ve got June 7 primary election results!
A look at Maine’s June 14 primaries
Checking in on ballot measure certifications
We’re back with another update on this year’s statewide ballot measure certifications. The last time we checked in on ballot measures, on May 26, we’d tracked 94 statewide measures certified for the 2022 ballot in 33 states. Now, that number is up to 103 measures in 34 states. That’s 12 less than the average number certified at this point in other even-numbered years from 2010 to 2020.
Here’s an update on the those measures:
Six new measure were certified in two states for the November ballot last week:
From 2010 to 2020, the average number of statewide ballot measures certified in an even-numbered year was 164. By this time during even-numbered years from 2010 through 2020, an average of 115 statewide measures had been certified for the ballot.
Click below to read more about this year’s statewide ballot measures. To keep up with all things state ballot measures, click here to subscribe to the State Ballot Measure Monthly.
There were statewide primaries in California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota on Tuesday. Our team stayed up late into the night collecting results and monitoring the most significant developments. In tomorrow’s Brew, we’ll take a closer look at the biggest storylines to emerge from Tuesday’s results and help you make sense of what they mean for midterm races in November.
In the meantime, check out our June 7 election hub to see the latest results. You can also subscribe to The Heart of the Primaries, our weekly dive into key congressional, legislative, and executive races. The next edition comes out Thursday!
Click on the links below to see results from the battleground elections that happened last night:
The dust has yet to clear after last night’s elections, but the June 14 primaries are already looming (did we mention June is a busy month for elections?). Next Tuesday, four states will hold primaries—Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina.
Let’s look at the districts and offices up for election in the Pine Tree State.
Maine has two U.S. House districts. Both current incumbents are Democrats. In the Democratic primary for Maine’s 1st Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) is running uncontested. Pingree was first elected in 2009. She faces Ed Thlander, who is also running unopposed in the Republican primary, in the November general election. In the Democratic primary for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D) is running unopposed. Golden was first elected in 2019. Elizabeth Caruso and Bruce Poliquin are running in the Republican primary.
Maine is also holding Democratic and Republican primaries for governor. Incumbent Gov. Janet T. Mills (D) is running unopposed in the Democratic primary. She was first elected in 2018. Paul LePage (R), who served was governor from 2011 to 2019, is running unopposed in the Republican primary. Maine is one of 23 states that prevents governors from serving for more than two consecutive terms. Eight states limit governors to two terms.
All 35 districts in the state Senate are up for election, as are all 151 districts in the state House. Democrats control the state Senate 21-13 (with one vacancy). Democrats have a 79-64 majority in the House. There are two independents, one Maine Party representative, and five vacancies.
Seventy-one of the state’s incumbent lawmakers—House and Senate—are not seeking re-election. Those districts will go to newcomers. This is the largest number of guaranteed newcomers to the Legislature since 2014. There are 33 contested primaries—12 Democratic primaries and 21 for Republicans. For Democrats, this is down from 25 in 2020, a 52% decrease. For Republicans, the number increased 133% from nine in 2020 to 21 in 2022.
Maine is one of 15 states with term limits for state legislators. In both the Senate and House, legislators can serve four, two-year terms for a total of eight years. This year, 46 legislators are term-limited: 10 in the Senate and 36 in the House. In the remaining 25 open districts, legislators left office for other reasons.
Maine has had a Democratic trifecta since Democrats won control of the governorship and Senate in 2018.
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
Louisiana joins growing list of states deciding ballot measures on involuntary servitude this year
Number of contested state legislative primaries is up 34% compared to 2020
South Dakota is holding statewide primaries today
Louisiana joins growing list of states deciding ballot measures on involuntary servitude this year
Louisiana became the fifth state to place a measure regarding involuntary servitude on the ballot this year. On June 1, the Louisiana Senate approved a legislatively-referred amendment that would remove language from the state constitution allowing involuntary servitude as a punishment for a crime.
In Louisiana, constitutional amendments require a two-thirds vote from each chamber to appear on the ballot. The House approved the measure on May 3.
Each state’s legislature placed its involuntary servitude measures on the ballot as a constitutional amendment. Of those five states, one is a Democratic trifecta, two are Republican trifectas, and two—including Louisiana—have divided government.
Here are the rest, with additional descriptions of those measures:
Alabama: Ratifies an updated and recompiled state constitution drafted to remove racist language, among other changes. The existing section stating “[N]o form of slavery shall exist in this state; there shall not be any involuntary servitude, otherwise than for the punishment of crime” would be removed.
Oregon: Removes language that allows slavery and involuntary servitude as criminal punishments and adds language authorizing an Oregon court or probation or parole agency to order alternatives to incarceration for a convicted individual as part of sentencing.
Tennessee: Removes language allowing slavery and involuntary servitude as criminal punishments and replaces it with the statement, “Slavery and involuntary servitude are forever prohibited.”
Vermont: Removes language stating that people could be held as servants, enslaved people, or apprentices with their consent or for paying debts and adds “slavery and indentured servitude in any form are prohibited.”
Currently, nine state constitutions include provisions permitting involuntary servitude, and 10 included provisions permitting slavery and involuntary servitude as criminal punishments. These provisions were added to state constitutions, in their original forms, between the 1850s and 1890s. The United States ratified the 13th Amendment prohibiting slavery and involuntary servitude in 1865, except as punishment for crimes.
The legislative efforts to remove this language from state constitutions kicked off in 2018 when voters in Colorado approved Amendment A with 66% of the vote. Voters in two states—Nebraska and Utah—voted to remove similar language from their respective constitutions in 2020. Nebraska voters approved Amendment 1 with 68% of the vote. In Utah, voters approved Constitutional Amendment C with 80% of the vote. One state, Rhode Island, has included constitutional language prohibiting slavery since 1843.
Number of contested state legislative primaries is up 34% compared to 2020
There are 34% more contested state legislative primaries this year than in 2020, including 68% more Republican primaries and 18% more top-two/top-four primaries. Democratic primaries are down 9%.
We’ve been providing regular updates about the elevated number of contested state legislative primaries throughout the election cycle. Our last update included 20 states. This week, these figures include chambers holding elections in 24 states that account for 2,952 (48%) of the 6,166 state legislative seats up for election this year.
A primary is contested when more candidates are running than available nominations, meaning at least one candidate must lose.
Since our last Brew update on May 24, we have added post-filing deadline data from Colorado, Missouri, South Carolina, and Utah. Overall, six states in this analysis have Democratic trifectas, 15 have Republican trifectas, and three have divided governments.
Of the 24 states in this analysis, 22 are holding partisan primaries. Two states—California and Nebraska—use top-two primaries.
The number of Democratic primaries has increased in nine states, decreased in 10, and remains the same in two. The number of Republican primaries has increased in 21 states and decreased in one. The table below shows partisan statistics for the three states with the largest increases and decreases by party so far.
Use the link below to view these topline figures and additional state-specific statistics.
Happy Super Tuesday! June 7 is the busiest day on the 2022 election calendar, with seven states holding primaries nationwide. Today, let’s take a closer look at one of those states—South Dakota—including the races on the ballot and how their primaries work.
There are three statewide offices on the ballot today—U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and governor—but only for registered Republicans. South Dakota cancels uncontested primaries and since only one Democrat filed for the Senate and gubernatorial races and none filed for the U.S. House, Democratic and independent voters will only have contested races at the state legislative or municipal level.
U.S. Sen. John Thune (R) is running in a contested primary against two challengers. Thune, first elected in 2004, is seeking his fourth term. Only one other South Dakota Senator has served four terms: Karl Mundt (R), who served from 1948 to 1973.
In the state’s at-large congressional district, U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson (R), first elected in 2018, is seeking re-election and faces a contested primary.
All 105 state legislative seats—70 in the House and 35 in the Senate—are also up for election. Republicans currently hold a 62-8 majority in the House and a 32-3 majority in the Senate.
There are more contested state legislative primaries in South Dakota this year than at any point since 2014. After the state’s filing deadline, the number of contested primaries was up 41% compared to 2020. The number of contested Democratic primaries remained the same at two while Republican contests increased by 44%.
While some voters may have different ballots depending on their party registration, every voter will have at least one item on their June 7 ballots: Constitutional Amendment C. This legislatively-referred amendment would require at least 60% of the vote to approve ballot measures that increase taxes or fees or requiring the state to appropriate $10 million or more within the first five fiscal years. Currently, these measures require a simple majority for approval.
If approved, the 60%-vote provision would apply to Constitutional Amendment D, which has qualified for the November general election ballot and would expand Medicaid coverage.
If you have primaries coming up, use Ballotpedia’s Sample Ballot Lookup to see what’s on your ballot and bring your choices to the polls with our My Vote app! Keep reading
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
Battleground election preview
New Mexico’s June 7 primaries
On this date in 1978—California voters approve Proposition 13
June 7 battleground election preview
Seven states are holding statewide primaries tomorrow—California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Let’s take a look at three of the battleground elections happening in those states.
California
California’s 27th Congressional District: Seven candidates are running in the top-two primary for the 27th Congressional District. The two candidates to receive the most votes—regardless of party—advance to the general election. Three candidates are Republicans, three are Democrats, and one is a write-in running as an independent. Incumbent Mike Garcia (R), John Quaye Quartey (D), and Christy Smith (D) have received the most media attention. In 2020, Garcia defeated Smith in the general election by 333 votes, making it the third-closest U.S. House race that year.
Chesa Boudin recall: San Francisco voters will decide whether to recall District Attorney Chesa Boudin, who was elected in 2019.
Crime has also been a central issue in this election.
A group called San Franciscans for Public Safety started the recall effort on April 28, 2021. Organizers said: “We all agree that we need real criminal justice reform and police accountability now. Chesa Boudin isn’t delivering either priority — and since he took office, burglaries, car break-ins, homicides and overdose-related deaths are at a crisis level. Boudin is not keeping San Francisco safe.”
In response, Boudin said: “This is yet another recall relying on FALSE AND DISPROVEN REPUBLICAN talking points attempting to undo progress and take us backwards. Recalls are not political tools for people who lose elections.” Boudin has defended his approach, saying “the old approaches did not make us safer; they ignored root causes of crime and perpetuated mass incarceration.”
Boudin completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey in 2019.
If Boudin is recalled, Mayor London Breed will appoint a temporary replacement to serve until November.
So far in 2022, we’ve tracked 145 recalls against 228 officials at different levels of government. Voters have approved recalls in 19 cases.
Finkenauer represented Iowa’s 1st Congressional District from 2018 to 2021. The then-29 year old Finkenauer was the second-youngest woman elected to Congress. Finkenauer has campaigned on term limits.
Franken is a retired U.S. Navy Admiral. Franken said he appeals to, “that middle segment who want logical, pragmatic, smart, dedicated, national servants to work for them. Leader servants. I believe I’m that person.”
Hurst is a family physician who also chairs the Iowa Democratic Party’s Rural Caucus. Hurst says he is “a progressive candidate in this race” because of his support for Medicare for All and a Green New Deal.
Now that we have looked at some battleground races, let’s take a deeper dive into New Mexico.
New Mexico voters will decide Republican and Democratic primaries for the state’s three congressional districts. Heading into the primary, Democrats have 2-1 advantage in the state’s U.S. House delegation. Eight candidates filed to run across the districts, including four Democrats and four Republicans. That’s 2.67 candidates per district, less than the 6.3 candidates per district in 2020 and the five in 2018. The eight candidates who filed to run this year were the fewest candidates running for New Mexico’s U.S. House districts since seven ran in 2016. All three incumbents are seeking re-election.
Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is up for re-election. Incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, first elected in 2018, is running unopposed in the Democratic primary. Meanwhile, five candidates are seeking the GOP nomination. New Mexico’s last Republican governor was Susana Martinez, who served from 2011 to 2019.
All 70 of New Mexico’s state House districts are up for election. Democrats currently have a 44-24 majority in the state House (with one independent and one vacancy). Twelve of the 57 state legislators running for re-election face contested primaries—eight Democrats and four Republicans. That equals 21% of incumbents seeking re-election, the most since 2014. The remaining 45% of incumbents are not facing primary challengers.
Even though only one chamber is holding elections this year (New Mexico’s state Senate elections always coincide with presidential election years), the number of open districts is at its highest since 2014. In total, newcomers will represent 18.6% of the districts. In the 13 open districts, incumbents chose not to seek re-election. All incumbents seeking re-election are running in districts they represented before redistricting.
Three seats on the New Mexico Supreme Court are also on the ballot this year. One of the seats is up for a retention election in November, but two of the states are up for partisan election, with primaries on June 7. New Mexico is one of 32 states holding state supreme court elections this year. As of 2020, according to research in Ballotpedia Courts: State Partisanship, the New Mexico Supreme Court was one of 15 states with a majority Democratic-affiliated state supreme court.
In New Mexico, the primary candidate with the most votes wins—even if that candidate receives less than 50% of the total vote. New Mexico is one of 40 states without primary election runoffs. The state does not cancel uncontested primaries, and write-in candidates are required to file.
On this date in 1978—California voters approve Proposition 13
On this date in 1978, California voters approved Proposition 13, an initiated constitutional amendment that capped property taxes at 1% of their 1975-76 assessment and restricted future annual increases to no more than 2%. Proposition 13 also required a two-thirds vote of the Legislature to increase taxes. The vote was 4,280,689 (64.79%) to 2,326,167 (35.21%).
The New York Times’ Conor Dougherty wrote, “Proposition 13 was spearheaded by a retired businessman, Howard Jarvis, who harnessed voter anger over rising home prices — and therefore rising taxes — to amend the state’s Constitution to limit property tax increases to 2 percent a year.”
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
Previewing the first top-four congressional primary in U.S. history
A look at California’s June 7 primaries
Candidate Connection update—survey responses from Michigan House of Representatives candidates
Previewing the first top-four congressional primary in U.S. history
A top-four special primary is just around the corner in Alaska on June 11, 2022. This is the first top-four congressional primary in U.S. history. A special election for Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District in the U.S. House will take place in 2022. Former incumbent Rep. Don Young (R) died on March 18, 2022.
All candidates will appear on the same ballot with their affiliations listed next to their names. The four candidates with the most votes will advance to the general election, which will use ranked-choice voting.
Forty-eight candidates filed by the April 1, 2022, deadline. The special primary election ballot comprises:
22 candidates running as nonpartisan or with undeclared affiliation
16 Republicans
6 Democrats
2 Libertarians
1 American Independent Party member
1 Alaskan Independence Party member
Young was first elected as Alaska’s U.S. representative in 1973 when he defeated Emil Notti (D) in a special election. Notti is running in the 2022 special primary election. Young also ran for the House in 1972, when Nick Begich Sr. (D) defeated him. Begich Sr. is Begich III’s grandfather.
The special general election will be held August 16, 2022. The winner of that election will serve until the end of the term Young was last elected to—January 3, 2023. The special election is one of two elections, alongside the regularly scheduled election, for Alaska’s at-large House district in 2022. As of May 20, 18 candidates had filed to run in both the regular and special elections. The filing deadline for the regular election is June 1.
Here is a timeline for each primary and general election in 2022:
As of May 26, 2022, 14 special elections have been called during the 117th Congress. From the 113th Congress to the 116th Congress, 50 special elections were held.
California is one of seven states holding statewide primaries on June 7. Let’s take a look at what’s on the ballot this year.
U.S. Congress
California voters will elect a member to one of the state’s two U.S. Senate seats and all 52 of its U.S. House seats. Sen. Alex Padilla (D), who was appointed to the chamber following Kamala Harris’ (D) resignation to serve as vice president, is running for a full term. A special election for the seat is also taking place on the same dates; the winner of the special election will serve the remaining portion of Harris’ term.
These are the first U.S. House elections taking place in California under new district lines adopted following the 2020 census, which resulted in California losing one House seat. Democrats hold 42 of California’s U.S. House seats to Republicans’ 10 with one seat vacant.
Five members—all Democrats—are not running for re-election, leaving five seats open because an incumbent is not running. California has top-two primaries, where all candidates for a particular office appear on the same ballot regardless of partisan affiliation and the top two finishers advance to the general election. All 52 U.S. House primaries in California are contested, meaning there are three or more candidates running for the two general election spots.
State executives
There are eight statewide executive offices as well as four seats on the State Board of Equalization up for election this year. Seven of the eight statewide offices (all but superintendent of public instruction) are up for partisan election, with six of the seven races featuring a Democratic incumbent running for re-election.
The Democratic incumbents running for re-election include Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who was the subject of a recall election held in September 2021. Voters retained Newsom 62% to 38%. Other executives running for re-election include Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) and Secretary of State Shirley Weber (D). The only statewide partisan office without an incumbent running this year is the California Controller; incumbent Betty Yee (D) was ineligible to run due to term limits.
State legislators
One hundred state legislative seats are up for election in California this year; 20 of the 40 seats in the state Senate and all 80 seats in the state Assembly. This year, 295 candidates filed for the 100 seats; 168 Democrats, 119 Republicans, and eight independent or third-party candidates. These will be the first state legislative elections conducted under new district lines following the 2020 census.
There are 31 incumbents—20 Democrats, 10 Republicans, and one independent—not running for re-election this year, seven of whom were term-limited state senators. There are also three districts, all in the state assembly, where two incumbents are running against one another.
Of the 69 incumbents who are seeking re-election, 26 (21 Democrats and five Republicans) face contested primaries. This is down from 37 incumbents each in 2020 and 2018 but up from earlier cycles. One reason for this decrease is an increase in the number of open districts; the 34 open districts in this year’s legislative elections is the largest number since 2012.
Candidate Connection update—survey responses from Michigan House of Representatives candidates
Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey asks candidates for federal, state, and local office to share what motivates them on a personal and political level. Click here to see prior races featured.
As of May 31, 2022, we’re covering 115 races with final candidate lists in which all candidates have completed the survey. Seventeen races reached that milestone in the past week.
What’s new this week
Noah Arbit, Ken Ferguson, and James Sklar are the three candidates running for the Democratic nomination for District 20 in the Michigan House of Representatives. The district was moved north and east from Northville Township to West Bloomfield Township in the post-2020 round of redistricting. The new District 20 does not overlap the existing district. Incumbent Matt Koleszar (D) is running for re-election in the new District 22, which overlaps the old District 20.
Here’s how all three answered the question, “Who are you? Tell us about yourself.”
Noah Arbit:
“Growing up in West Bloomfield, I was steeped in the teachings of my Jewish faith, including the phrase “justice, justice shall you pursue.” Those words were a lifeline for me when, at 18 years old, I found myself in the courtroom testifying against the sexual predator who had assaulted me and many others.
I continued my pursuit of justice in politics, joining Governor Whitmer’s team to advocate for policies to help Oakland County. After the Pittsburgh synagogue attack, I founded the Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus to empower Jews to take on hate and extremism in the political arena. I was then appointed Director of Communications for the Oakland County Prosecutor’s Office, spearheading the first-ever Racial Justice Advisory Council and establishing a program to assist in prosecuting hate crimes targeting LGBTQ+ people.
Each of these roles—as well as my battles with depression, ADHD, and my journey to self-acceptance as a gay man—drive my passion to address issues like Michigan’s mental health crisis and rising hate crimes.
I truly never imagined running for office, but I was tired of watching my hometown treated like an afterthought in Lansing. West Bloomfield, Commerce, and the Lakes deserve a passionate, forward-thinking, relentless leader who exhausts every path to find innovative, common-sense solutions. A leader who shows up, works tirelessly, and fights for us with faith and fidelity. That’s the kind of person I am. That’s the kind of representative I’ll be.”
Ken Ferguson:
“I’m a lifelong Michigander, Army veteran, public school teacher, husband, and parent. I grew up in Sterling Heights with my parents and two siblings in a modest home that embodied hard work and family values. When I was ten, my father passed away, which made it challenging for my family. Thanks to my mother’s dedication, we survived, kept the house and made ends meet. These experiences shaped my desire to help others succeed when dealt difficult circumstances in life.
Serving others has always been an important part of my life. I joined the Army and served honorably during Desert Storm with the Military Police. Today, I am a teacher for children who are blind or have low vision, and this has been my career for more than two decades. I’m a proud union member and prior leader for my MEA and AFT locals. In 2016, I was elected to the West Bloomfield School Board and am currently the board’s treasurer. I reside in West Bloomfield with my wife and two wonderful children.”
James Sklar:
“I am a hardworking, laser-focused, and goal-oriented person who never gives up. I have worked three years in the state legislature, interned at the White House under the Obama Administration, and I have my J.D. from Michigan State College of Law. While working in the state legislature I have witnessed everyone’s recent struggles and how Michigan needs to implement innovative policies to meet those struggles. I am worried that the opportunities I had to succeed aren’t there anymore. We need to work harder to keep our talent in Michigan and invest in the future generations of Michigan leaders. My passion for Michigan and my experiences are why I believe I will be an effective voice in the state house.”
About Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey
Some other details about the 115 races where all candidates have completed the survey:
They are located in 26 states.
Thirty-seven of the 115 races are taking place in Texas.
Twenty-three of the 115 races are general elections, including one runoff.
Of the 92 primaries and primary runoffs, 51 are for the Democratic nomination, 35 are for the Republican nomination, five are top-two primaries, and one is nonpartisan.
Sixty-one of the 115 races are for state legislature.
